Advanced statistics.

Originally posted by redskwerl

Originally posted by shatteredaces
the decks then are placed into a line waiting to be distributed to which table needs one first.

So you are no longer relying on the shuffle that has predetermined your unknown variants you will receive.

You are relying on deck given by timing of what variants you receive.

Ok, now I understand where you went wrong.

There is no predetermined deck, that you are supposed to get. You get a deck from a line of random decks. It doesn't matter how we choose which deck you get. We don't know how each deck is shuffled, because they are shuffled randomly. Whichever deck you get, it is just as random and fair, as if there only existed a single random deck (like, in the universe), and you were getting dealt cards from this one Deck. The fact that there are other decks, also shuffled randomly, is irrelevant. The decks are all the same! It doesn't matter which one you get, they are all randomized in a fair way. You can gain no advantage or disadvantage by getting one deck over another.
Yes, some decks give you more favorable cards, others give you less favorable cards. This is what a random distribution does, it's completely expected. Again, you are not disadvantaged by this in any way.

I know there is no pre-defined deck, the deck you get is random by timing, making random probabilities compared to a single deck. One deck gives one specific order of distribution, one set of probabilities , 1,000,000 decks is 1,000,000 decks of probabilities of 1/221.

1/221 is not the same as 4524/1,000,000

I give up

Originally posted by redskwerl
I give up

if i have 221 decks of pre-shuffled cards what are the odds of getting aces in my seat out of all the decks?

there are some number of separate decks (say, 221), each 52 cards, shuffled randomly. a single deck is selected and we are dealt 2 cards from it. do i have your question right?

we are dealing 2 cards from a randomly shuffled standard deck. what do you think the probability is of getting aces? how is this even a question?
ignoring the order of the cards being dealt, there are 1326 possible 2 card combinations, 6 of these are AA. you get aces 6/1326 = 1/221 of the time.
yes, we shuffled 220 other decks in the background, but that is completely irrelevant. it also doesn't matter what your position at the table is.

like i said, i give up. it was fun for a while but now it's getting old

Originally posted by redskwerl
there are some number of separate decks (say, 221), each 52 cards, shuffled randomly. a single deck is selected and we are dealt 2 cards from it. do i have your question right?

we are dealing 2 cards from a randomly shuffled standard deck. what do you think the probability is of getting aces? how is this even a question?
ignoring the order of the cards being dealt, there are 1326 possible 2 card combinations, 6 of these are AA. you get aces 6/1326 = 1/221 of the time.
yes, we shuffled 220 other decks in the background, but that is completely irrelevant. it also doesn't matter what your position at the table is.

like i said, i give up. it was fun for a while but now it's getting old

''there are some number of separate decks (say, 221), each 52 cards, shuffled randomly. a single deck is selected and we are dealt 2 cards from it. do i have your question right?''

No you do not have that correct, we are dealt all the decks to a single table, the probabilities are 1/221 because 221 decks is 221 hands,

the average ratio frequency over time is you will receive aces once for every 221 hands.

So what ratio has 1,000,000 pre-shuffled decks dealt to a single table have of you receiving aces?

hint - 1,000,000/221=4524.88687783

Originally posted by shatteredaces
1/221 is not the same as 4524/1,000,000

looks the same to me

also wow

Originally posted by Tomaloc

Originally posted by shatteredaces
1/221 is not the same as 4524/1,000,000

looks the same to me

also wow

In comparison how is a 221 number roulette wheel with one winning number the same as a 1,000,000 number roulette wheel with 4524 winning numbers?

Originally posted by shatteredaces
No you do not have that correct, we are dealt all the decks to a single table, the probabilities are 1/221 because 221 decks is 221 hands,

the average ratio frequency over time is you will receive aces once for every 221 hands.

So what ratio has 1,000,000 pre-shuffled decks dealt to a single table have of you receiving aces?

hint - 1,000,000/221=4524.88687783

i have no idea what you're talking about, what you're saying literally makes no sense. we are dealt multiple decks to a table? what?

don't give us hints, state your position clearly. if you can't that's a good sign that you are confused

exactly

Originally posted by redskwerl

Originally posted by shatteredaces
No you do not have that correct, we are dealt all the decks to a single table, the probabilities are 1/221 because 221 decks is 221 hands,

the average ratio frequency over time is you will receive aces once for every 221 hands.

So what ratio has 1,000,000 pre-shuffled decks dealt to a single table have of you receiving aces?

hint - 1,000,000/221=4524.88687783

i have no idea what you're talking about, what you're saying literally makes no sense. we are dealt multiple decks to a table? what?

don't give us hints, state your position clearly. if you can't that's a good sign that you are confused

I have stated my position, it is not me who is confused, have shown the maths, maths does not lie, and you guys are now avoiding the questions.

How many aces should you receive according to probabilities from 1,000,000 hands?

Originally posted by shatteredaces
How many aces should you receive according to probabilities from 1,000,000 hands?

okay, i'll play! you'll get 1,000,000/221 aces. oh boy oh boy i wonder what mysteries will this amazing result reveal!?

Originally posted by redskwerl

Originally posted by shatteredaces
How many aces should you receive according to probabilities from 1,000,000 hands?

okay, i'll play! you'll get 1,000,000/221 aces. oh boy oh boy i wonder what mysteries will this amazing result reveal!?

which equals on average 4524.88687783 aces in 1,000,000 hands you would receive over time.

the problem with deck stacking and random timing decks is that you could receive 4524 aces within the first 4524 hands out of 1,000,000 decks, because of deck skipping

based on 18% losing aces there is an average possible in 1,000,000 decks of 814.32 losing aces.

You could be unlucky and receive all 814.32 losing aces by deck skipping

the exact same thing could happen with only 1 deck since probabilities have no memory

it was a promising start, but you went back to your old ways of nonsense
what is deck stacking? what is random timing decks? what is deck skipping?

by the way, yes, you could receive 4524 aces in a row. nobody said that you couldn't
and yes, you could get super unlucky, and always lose with your aces. so what?

Originally posted by redskwerl
it was a promising start, but you went back to your old ways of nonsense
what is deck stacking? what is random timing decks? what is deck skipping?

by the way, yes, you could receive 4524 aces in a row. nobody said that you couldn't
and yes, you could get super unlucky, and always lose with your aces. so what?

what is stacking normally? placing one deck on top of another, hands are random time to play per table, the decks go to the next table that needs an hand. Deck skipping is 1,5,7,8, and not 1,2,3,4

I think you still do not understand,

say deck one deals me aces, and in the line deck 553 has aces aligned to my seat, by timing of hands and table volume, my next deck is deck 553, then lets say deck 700 has aces aligned to my seat, and again the same happens, 3 times in a row, not a surprise with 4524 aces on average aligned to my seat.

so what are you saying? is our chance of getting aces more than it supposed to be? is it less?

Originally posted by redskwerl
so what are you saying? is our chance of getting aces more than it supposed to be? is it less?

The problem is inconsistency by timing. You could receive if you are lucky, more better hands than your fair share, or vice versus, or more losing aces than expected, etc,etc, the list is endless, an inconsistent game makes inconsistent wins and loses, receiving good winning hands in a tourney is vital at the later stages, timing prevents winners by inconsistency of the cards

give a donk a 50k head start and they will call your aces with 72

Originally posted by shatteredaces
You could receive if you are lucky, more better hands than your fair share, or vice versus, or more losing aces than expected

you accidentally made sense here. you should be more careful

Originally posted by redskwerl

Originally posted by shatteredaces
You could receive if you are lucky, more better hands than your fair share, or vice versus, or more losing aces than expected

you accidentally made sense here. you should be more careful

In a live game that would also be true, but we are not using this in this context , we are referring to deck skipping and not playing a shuffle but playing by luck of timing of decks out of 1,000,000 decks.

enter a live tourney games change from next to the next, a consistency of the cards, online this does not happen and can not happen. Every game is based on this timing luck of decks ,