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Winning strategy in heads up forced all in.

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Vip3rNZ
Joined: 11.11.2011
PokerStrategist

Ok so if there is a %50 chance to win and double your money right

First bet $1 if U win u gain $1 and repeat
if u lose u bet $2 if u win u've gained $1 profit since U started, start again at $1

if u lose the $2 you bet $6 so that if u win, your up by $3 even after losing the $1 and $2 previously. you then start back at $1.

if u lose again ( 3 flips in a row ) you bet $18, then if u win your up $9 even after previously losing the previous $1, $2, $6! you then satrt back at $1.

If you lose 4 flips in a row, you simply bet $54, then if u win you're up $27 and the start back at $1.

You can probly see where i'm going with this, ofc you need a very big bankroll to earn a small amount but it's pretty sure thing untill the day u lose like 15 flips in a row

ofc u can make the increments smaller to reduce variance?


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15 replies

sounds like martingale system ?


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Vip3rNZ Topic starter
Vip3rNZ
Joined: 11.11.2011
PokerStrategist

oh lol has someone already thought of this method?


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Yea someone thougt of that strategy before (mostly meant for roulette, but you can apply it to your example) , but it is actually not profitable.

You do have 50-50 chance to win. But what about rake? If rake is 5%, you will be losing 5% in the long run.


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There is no games which the odds is 50%/50% , AK vs QQ is not 50/50


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gadget51
Joined: 23.06.2008
Oldschool Grinder

Hi Vip3rNZ,

The guys are correct unfortunately. :)

There are usually limits to the amount you can wager in these Martingale 'systems', so eventually you can't wager enough to win because the house won't let you, plus as mentioned already, there is usually rake to contend with, even in roulette the house takes a %.

Regards,

Mal.


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Originally posted by ragney
There is no games which the odds is 50%/50% , AK vs QQ is not 50/50

If you are both forced all in every hand before the cards are dealt, the chances are indeed 50-50. ;)


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You forget rake. And you would need an infinite bankroll.


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RasTweet
Joined: 26.12.2009
Oldschool Grinder

also sounds very fishy :P

but I don't get one thing. So you bet $1 and what on the flop? Or is it always AI pre? A variant I've never heard of?


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Vip3rNZ Topic starter
Vip3rNZ
Joined: 11.11.2011
PokerStrategist

yeah it's always all in pre, it's one of the SNGs at 888 poker


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Originally posted by TiciBoy

Originally posted by ragney
There is no games which the odds is 50%/50% , AK vs QQ is not 50/50

If you are both forced all in every hand before the cards are dealt, the chances are indeed 50-50. ;)

Too bad the game itself doesnt exist ;)

There is no official gambling game where you get 50/50 odds. Even if there is, they will implement something like rake.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010
Oldschool Grinder

The biggest problem with martingale at roulette is that if you start with $1, you would need a bankroll of 1 million to be able to stand 20 losses in a row. Now some might think "I can't lose 20 flips in a row, ever!". Just go to your local casino and talk with the roulette emplyees. 10-15 strings of same color are happening all the time. So in order to win a dollar, you would need a million dollars, at least. And if you had a million dollars, why would you do something like that for one dollar?

And casinos have limits on required and maximum bet sizes in all of their games. Just to make sure that some millionaire wouldn't ruin their stuff. :)


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And in roulette don't forget zero! 37 numbers on table... 18red, 18black and 1green. House always wins!!!!


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010
Oldschool Grinder

And if one roll is -EV, you can't make multiple rolls +EV with anything.


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011
Oldschool Grinder

reverse martingale is much more fun!

join with $1, quit if you lose, bet $2 if you double up.
continue until you're satisfied


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Whole bankroll on one flip...... Either pure joy or pure sorrow!


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