[Closed] $Ev?

you have only played a few tourneys 14 you will need a much bigger sample size than this before you worry, the $ev line i have found now to be fairly accurate on where your winnings will follow im sure phyzon the coach could give you a good description on the $ev he has helped me alot this week in understanding the very same thing ( $EV )

my advice would be carry on playing and try not to worry to much about where your winnings are just work on keeping your red line going up and the money will follow have a read of the article Variniance in sng's

i wish you the best of luck on the tables

sorry to hijack the thread but this is mine, should I be worried? LoL

As Johny8984 pointed out, 14 tournaments is not enough to draw many conclusions either from your results (green line) or your luck-adjusted results (red line).

If you play 1000 tournaments with a 50-30-20 structure, you have strong statistical evidence that your true ROI is within about 10% of what you observe. That is still not very tight, and 1000 tournaments will take a long time to play if you are only playing 1-4 at a time. If you look a the red line you get a similar level of accuracy after only about 500 tournaments. However, there is still a lot of luck which is not seen by the luck adjustment. If you have KK vs. AA, or AA vs. KK, and all of the money goes in, it's just luck whether you had the aces or the kings. However, the red line doesn't see this luck. In effect, it assumes that whatever happened before you got all-in was intentional.

In the short run, it is better to focus on whether you are playing well. Were you paying attention to the stage of the tournaments, your stack size, and your position? Are you making decisions which reflect what you studied? Were you observing your opponents? It shouldn't take 500 tournaments to see whether you are comfortable playing or not.

Then I guess I will just keep playing and improving my game, I will try to keep the red line going up and after 500 tourneys I will reevaluate my ROI and my bankroll.
Thanks for help.

Marto actually if I was you I would start to worry, one day you will need to catch that red line since you can't always run above or under it (you should be around it statstically) 250 games is very little, but still it's not looking too good right now I would review the hands and make sure your play is ok in case you are just getting lucky. (I am assuming you play the 1$-2$, so that's a lot of BI above EV)

That the green line is ahead of the red line isn't a direct cause for concern. It is slightly troubling that the red line is basically flat over 250 tournaments, but that happens some times even to solid winners, just like 500 tournament break-even stretches happen.

There is no restoring force which pushes the green line back toward the red line. It is possible for your green line to be above your red line for 50k tournaments, and for the amount of the difference to increase, e.g., you could be up $1000 in all-in luck after 10k tournaments, and you could be up $2000 in all-in luck after 50k. Your luck-adjusted ROI does tend to get closer to the unadjusted ROI. That's because the luck is divided by the increasing number of tournaments.

There is a tendency for the green line and red line to be correlated on exceptional days. On your biggest winning days, you tend to have a very positive red line, and on your biggest losing days, your red line tends to look terrible. That the red line is unbiased a priori does not mean it is unbiased once you see your green line. The red line is still a better indicator than the green line, but don't quit your day job after you have your best day ever and your red line says your ROI should have been 30%+.