Today i had the shittiest session ever luck wise , and i am quite fucking angry because i ve been running like shit the whole month. So atm i am "15k below expectation" and my patience is running thin , and i dont wanna hear preachings about variance until i run 15k above expectation.
This would be easily my biggest month ever if i hadnt run like this , and tbh i dont see me having 15k luckbox month anytime soon.
So i have to get this off my chest. Fuck you party.
That's all.
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11 replies
Downswing aswell here 9 BI at NL100 and 10BI on NL50, I just run into set and overpair over overpair each time.. Can't remember last time I won a big pot with KK..
PartyPoker has put a megadownswing to all pokerstrategy members!?:p
Calmed down.
Was a -5.5k session , and i ran 5.5k below expectation , meaning i would break even under "normal luck". I woudlnt mind that much if my whole month wasnt like this. During my 4 first months of this year i was exactly at 0 , so it better even out sooner or later ~_~.
My expectation was 33k so far. But if this goes on i ll probably end up broke ♦ .
Well gl to us all i guess o_O
18k below expectation now and i lost AA vs AA .I think i might have hit a doomswitch o_O.
Btw , am i supposed to be down overall to consider im downswinging ?
Originally posted by undercover82
18k below expectation now and i lost AA vs AA .I think i might have hit a doomswitch o_O.
Btw , am i supposed to be down overall to consider im downswinging ?
imo no. i know i definitely regard my breakeven month as a massive downswing.
I ran up 115k hands 50NL of me (obviously 50NL i will be getting in the money 70-80% alot) being 16 stacks under EV after 115k hands. Poker takes alot of hands for you to even out, you should know that by now 
If you know a little german: http://fold4value.blogspot.com/2007/06/varianz.html
..else cliffnotes: you can be a winning player over 100-200k hands although you are actually a real losingplayer, and also vice versa if you are a real 4ptbb winner you can easily be losing or breaking even after 100k hands. The article also reasons why there aren't probably any people with a true winrate of over 4-5ptbb.
Good luck anyways.
edit: I think key to handling shortterm results is to be mentally unstressed everytime you play a session and handle each hand and each session in vacuum never considering being on a down or upswing. Down-, up- and evenswings can be found regarding the past. You can never know if you are in a down/upswing or being even, variance in a game as poker is too big. You can analyse in hindsight whether your standard-deviation on a stretch of x hands was higher than the usual ~40BB/100 SD.
Originally posted by hova
edit: I think key to handling shortterm results is to be mentally unstressed everytime you play a session and handle each hand and each session in vacuum never considering being on a down or upswing. Down-, up- and evenswings can be found regarding the past. You can never know if you are in a down/upswing or being even, variance in a game as poker is too big. You can analyse in hindsight whether your standard-deviation on a stretch of x hands was higher than the usual ~40BB/100 SD.
#2
Very true!!!
Well, it happens to the best of us I guess. During my extended downswing I dropped down from NL400 to NL100 in 2 months and I can't recall having 2 winning days after each other. Variance can be a real pain in the ass, but don't get into doomscenario's where you'll lose everything. It does in fact, even out, though it may take a while. It took me another 3,5 months to do so, but I got there, and there's no reason why this wouldn't be the case with you.