My blog about the mathematics of Staking

Tosh5457

Joined: 18.01.2008

15.04.2013, 07:01 0

Hello! I'm making a blog about the mathematical aspect of staking, and I'll address many relevant topics for a staker. My motivation to start to blog was the fact that there seems to be a widespread ignorance about the business of staking, with many stakers getting involved in bad deals. To deal with that one needs a consistent mathematical model to evaluate each staking, and that’s what I’ll be developing on this blog.

My 1st post was about the most important thing that a staker needs to know: his EV, by knowing the winrate of the player, variance of the game, and number of tournaments/hands played in the staking deal.

I hope you like it, and you're free to give suggestions for future posts

http://pokerstakingev.wordpress.com

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11 replies

Jan217

Joined: 02.01.2009

Posts: 625

15.04.2013, 14:33 0

Awesome post!

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Tosh5457 Topic starter

Joined: 18.01.2008

Posts: 1,314

15.04.2013, 15:22 0

Originally posted by Jan217
Awesome post!

Thank you!

By the way, here's the spreadsheet to calculate the staker's EV, you just need to supply the number of events, standard deviation of the game, horse's EV and the fraction of profits the staker takes. The number of events isn't the same thing as the number of games though, so see the examples first before playing with it

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_Anonymous_

15.04.2013, 15:41 0

Super interesting! Looking forward to reading more.

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thazar

Joined: 14.09.2009

Posts: 6,560

15.04.2013, 16:52 0

Hi Tosh5457

your post in your blog is very interesting.

why don't you include it in a blog on PokerStrategy rather that an external blog.

the issue with such an external blog is we would either have to monitor what you post regularly (which could be a lot of extra work) or not allow you to post those external links which is not really nice.

feel free to contact me on Skype to discuss the best way to go forward:

skype: newfishontheblock

best regards

Thazar

My Blog

Road to black member: 22%

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Tosh5457 Topic starter

Joined: 18.01.2008

Posts: 1,314

17.04.2013, 13:40 0

I'm struggling for the next post, since I need a database with 10k hands+ of a NL SH player and NL FR player. Unfortunately I lost my NL SH database and only have 2.4k hands now :\ Can anyone help me? It's very easy to do, I've posted the guide to how to do it in this topic: Can you show me your database (anonymously)?

Thank you!

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_Anonymous_

17.04.2013, 13:57 0

is that your own formula?

btw, i dont really see why the pi is included in the [(N/2pi)^1/2]*std*.... , just doesnt make much sene to me...

care to explain?

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Tosh5457 Topic starter

Joined: 18.01.2008

Posts: 1,314

17.04.2013, 14:26 0

Originally posted by zumpar
is that your own formula?

btw, i dont really see why the pi is included in the [(N/2pi)^1/2]*std*.... , just doesnt make much sene to me...

care to explain?

Yes, I derived it

The factor (1/2pi)^1/2 comes from the normal distribution density function.

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everyoneissolid

Joined: 14.03.2011

Posts: 2,588

05.05.2013, 14:01 0

Waiting for part 2 :f_p:

Do you still need a database? Which stats do you need, just std dev or also others?

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Tosh5457 Topic starter

Joined: 18.01.2008

Posts: 1,314

05.05.2013, 16:27 0

.

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Tosh5457 Topic starter

Joined: 18.01.2008

Posts: 1,314

05.05.2013, 16:59 0

I just made a new post, it shows the standard deviation for each type of variant (among the most played variants). Read more: Standard deviation for each type of game

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everyoneissolid

Joined: 14.03.2011

Posts: 2,588

17.06.2013, 20:26 0

Will there be a 3rd part?

I am curious about standard deviation for PLO and MTTs with >1k runners.

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