Good moooorniiiing
I think I am starting to get the hang of calculating moves with Equilator. Can you check if my analysis here is ok please? (also the play, of course, which I still don't know if to feel embarrased about or proud... 
)
Villain is supernit, superaggro. We have history. He always raises the hell out of me, because let's face it: I am a loose fish. He is 14/8/5 over 240 hands (most of the 14 VPIP, 8 PRF is vs. me) - cbets 100% (9/9), check raises, high 3bet on flop, etc. I show you the hand and afterwards how I used Equilab on this:
Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:
$0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)
Known players:
[tg]MP3 (Hero)$10.55:///////;CO$11.01:///////;BU$12.11:///////;SB$10.00:///////;BB$4.00:///////;MP1$17.84:///////;MP2$12.27:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6:h, 6:d.
MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, CO folds, BU raises to $0.60, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.50.
Flop: ($1.45) 4:d, 3:d, 5:s (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $1.00, Hero raises to $3.00, BU raises to $11.51, Hero calls $6.95.
Turn: ($22.91) 4:c (2 players)
River: ($22.91) 2:s (2 players)
Final Pot: $22.91.
Results follow:
Hero shows a straight, six high(6:h 6:d).
BU shows a straight, five high(A:c A:s).
Hero wins with a straight, six high(6:h 6:d).
So, the stats I am looking at in this hand are:
- PFR with previous callers: 13% (6/48)
- CBet on flop: 100% (9/9)
- Fold to raise 50% (3/6)
(Any others I should look at?)
I limp/call there because he is superaggressive after the flop, it think he will pay me very well if I flop a set (I always calculate implied odds for set 10:1 roughly, to take into account rake, and to be on the up side of pay outs). So implied odds there are ok.
I know the sample of situations is small (any ideas on how to approximate ranges?). I will go towards the side of caution, so I am going to reduce the range of PFR w/prev. callers to about 8%, which leaves me with 77+ ATs+ AJo+.
Flop: Vs. that range, I am a little better than a coinflip with that flop (58% vs 42%, i.e., 1.4 : 1 in my favour). When he Cbets, because he cbets all hands (particulary vs. loose fish like me), I keep the range as it is.
Now I check raise. (Is it correct to look at this like: 'I am risking $3 to win $2.45, i.e., I am getting 1 : 1.2 ?' )
After I check raise him, he pushes. I am assigning him a pushing range of 99+, and ATs+ where the suited connects with the suit on the board. Vs. 99+ I am 39% to 61% underdog, or 1:1.6 against. The pot odds in this case are 1:2.3. When I add the flush draws (I am taking AdTd+) I get 40% to 60%, 1:1.5.
(Usually I prefer to have more room between pot odds and my odds of making it, but I am starting to think that vs. this kind of player it is very difficult to get it any better)
What do you think?
Thanks a lot,
S.
(and money went into the pot is not mine anymore)
)