I played a hand today that I thought was quite interesting in terms of my range. I'm going to review it and do some maths, but go easy because I was never so good at maths so there could be some errors in there. Probably won't do this very often because it takes a long time. Also it is just theoretical (assuming villain is unknown and playing solid), so I won't give any more info on him.
€0.10/€0.20 No Limit Holdem
Stacks:
UTG (€7.44) 37bb
UTG+1 (€18.70) 94bb
DrDunne (CO) (€17.90) 90bb
BTN (€8) 40bb
SB (€28.87) 144bb
BB (€19.37) 97bb
Pre-Flop: (€0.30, 6 players) DrDunne is CO X-X
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to €0.70, DrDunne calls €0.70, 3 folds
Flop: 4♣ 7♦ Q♥ (€1.70, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets €1.02, DrDunne calls €1.02
Turn: 7♣ (€3.74, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets €2.80, DrDunne calls €2.80
River: 3♠ (€9.34, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets €5.60, DrDunne goes all-in €13.38, UTG+1 folds
Final Pot: €28.32
DrDunne wins €27.30 (net +€9.40)
UTG+1 lost €10.12
My preflop calling range is something tight like {JJ-22, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo}.
Against his 60% CB sizing I should defend with 1 – 1.02/(1.70+1.02)=62.5% of my range on the flop. This is ~46 combos of my 73 combos: {JJ-88, 7h7s, 7h7c, 7s7c, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, AdQd, AsQs, AcQc, KdQd, KsQs, KcQc, AdJd, AhJh, AcJc, AdQs, AdQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AsQd, AsQc, AcQd, AcQs} –48 combos. I’m pretty sure it’s ok to not have a raising range on this flop, but I could be wrong. I'll continue as though I don't have one.
On the turn I lose 2 combos and I should defend ~57% of my range again to his sizing, so this looks like 46*0.57=26 combos. Hard to fold this much, so I’ll use 32 combos{JJ-TT, 7h7s, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, AdQd, AsQs, AcQc, KdQd, KsQs, KcQc, AcJc, AdQs, AdQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AsQd, AsQc, AcQd, AcQs}. TT really does feel like a call, but if we fold TT we hit 26 continuing combos. Regardless, I’ll leave it in just because I think it’s too strong to fold.
On the river I need to defend 67% of hands, so 32*.67=21 combos. If I fold JJ and TT, the weakest hand I have here is AcJc which missed the FD and I have ~20 combos which is close to what I need. I’m jamming for value obviously with 77 and 44, which is 4 combos. A 65bb jam into a pot of 75bb needs 46% FE and should consist of roughly 30% bluffs and 70% value. If I have 4 value jam combos I should have around 2 bluff jams, so my jamming range could look like this {7h7s, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, AcJc} which is just 1 combo of bluffs. Since the next worst hand in my range aside from AcJc is KQs I don’t think I want to turn that into a bluff.
I think his bet bet bet range looks like {KK+, QdQs, QdQc, QsQc, 7h7s, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, 65s, AcKc, AdQd, AsQs, AcQc, KdQd, KsQs, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ah7h, As7s, 8h7h, 8s7s, Ac6c, 7h6h, 7s6s, Ac5c, Ad4d, Ah4h, As4s, Ac3c, Ac2c, AdQs, AdQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AsQd, AsQc, AcQd, AcQs, KdQs, KdQc, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KsQd, KsQc, KcQd, KcQs}, but we should remember that when we get to the river with AcJc he can no longer have his AcXc 3barrel bluffs. He could have KcTc but when we get there with KcQc then we need to be mindful that he now no longer has AcKc and KcTc or KcJc.
His river bet size should work 33% of the time and should consist of 75% value bets. If he valuebets with this range {KK+, QdQs, QdQc, QsQc, 7h7s, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, 65s, AdQd, AsQs, AcQc, KdQd, KsQs, KcQc, Ah7h, As7s, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7h6h, 7s6s, AdQs, AdQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AsQd, AsQc, AcQd, AcQs, KdQs, KdQc, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KsQd, KsQc, KcQd, KcQs}, then he has 4.9% value hands. To calculate his 25% bluff range… 4.5/75*25=1.5, meaning his bluff range 1.5%.
If we think he folds AA here then we can still make the jam with AcJc because he will also fold all his Qx and continue only with his trips, straights, FH and quads. If he will station with AQ and better then we don’t have the FE with our bluff jam so we should adjust and just valuejam.
So I know I went into a lot of detail here, but I like breaking hands up and looking at them sometimes, even if I don't necessarily use that at the tables I feel like it gives me a rough idea of what I should do in some spots and maybe if I do this enough then I'll start to recognise the more common situations and it should improve my game a bit.
T
J
he’s folding to any sizing. The disadvantage is he will probably call with Jx or 99.
