[Highlight] You have to value bet (not even that) thinly against fish!

Awesome ! :f_drink:

Answer attempt: villain can always fold when we bet?
But then we can adapt and bet 100% turn, no?
No idea right now

Really nice-useful thread!

Regarding your question, I think you kind answering this in your evaluation. If we never check back turn strong Villain can now put pressure on the river by bluffing more.

However, I think that this is not the case, cause we can use other hands as bluff catchers which are not value bets on the turn, but do well vs Villain's river bluffing range.

I think to answer correctly though, we have to consider our whole range and how it plays by the flop.

Question: do we bet our river bluff catchers on the flop to check turn and call river, or those hands are usually checks on the flop - to call turns and decide river?

And now the same question applies to the flop. How villain can exploit us if we never check strong on the flop ?:) Do we have bluff catchers that check the flop to call turn and rivers?

Hey, good thread and breakdown, but i really dont like the example, i mean you dont have to do the equity calc for this, and the guy seriously couldnt decide if he should shove the river with 2s full of As? Not even i am that nitty

The turn play probably starts to gets interesting if we hold something like KQ- without a diamond, or K with a weaker diamond as kicker (Jack or worse). I would love to see analysis on situations like those.

Also your question is a bit confusing cos of the example, " this type of hand". We have an overpair and we also hold the NFD, you mean the AdAh AdAc AdAs range of hands? ♦

If you mean the nfd, that is expoitable on a diamond or ace river, if our opponent has full data on our play. Against an overly aggressive opponent we can probably balance around with checking flopped monsters on the turn instead. But i wonder if that has negative effect on our total EV in a long run.

But if you mean the overpair, as Asimos above me mentioned, the ranges can probably be balanced with other type of hands easier.

Originally posted by asimos
Regarding your question, I think you kind answering this in your evaluation. If we never check back turn strong Villain can now put pressure on the river by bluffing more.

This was what I was getting at. It's not true that the correct adjustment for villain, if we have a very capped range, is to bluff more. At least not directly. The problem is that with a capped range we are vulnerable to thin value bets, that's a very importante concept. Because if the only thing villain did was to bluff more we just call more bluffcatchers, we don't need a very good hand to win against bluffs.

Originally posted by IuriTPena
Awesome ! :f_drink:

Answer attempt: villain can always fold when we bet?
But then we can adapt and bet 100% turn, no?
No idea right now

Yeah, folding turn everytime is no good

Originally posted by asimos
Question: do we bet our river bluff catchers on the flop to check turn and call river, or those hands are usually checks on the flop - to call turns and decide river?

I think this board is such that on most rundowns we'll always have something that we want to check back turn and could bluffcatch river. But on this flop I think there are a lot of hands that would rather bet flop than to check it back to call turn (specially against 2 fishy players) like a a lot of top pairs without diamond.

Originally posted by asimos
And now the same question applies to the flop. How villain can exploit us if we never check strong on the flop ?

Again, the answer would be something like "villain can exploit our capped check back range flop by betting big flop and turn on blanks with a hand like KJ, since we never have a flush and almost not sets or 2pairs", or "villain can bet big when diamond hits with Qd (or even Jd) since we never have the nuts". But in practice nobody does this.

1 small note: please exclude 22 from expected villain river ranges, as there are three deuces already on the board.

Yeah and also exclude 7d6d, 6d5d, since the 6d is on the board.

Originally posted by nitrol
1 small note: please exclude 22 from expected villain river ranges, as there are three deuces already on the board.

Originally posted by LookAwayNow
Yeah and also exclude 7d6d, 6d5d, since the 6d is on the board.

Relax guys, it's a bug from Equilab, it puts them in the ranges but doesn't count them for the equity calculations.

relaxed, drinking cocktails, just trying to help.

Originally posted by nitrol
relaxed, drinking cocktails, just trying to help.

, yeah, maybe it sounded that i was irritated. Not at all. Tone is very hard to pass on in writing.

good read

Hi, why is there so much conversation about this hand, I dont find anything special. Imo it should be straightforward bet bet shove vs 2 fish on any runout except when K comes. on flop and turn hero has a tone of equity vs fish range (also vs regs), this fish is passive, so imo checking any street is burning money.

I especially find pointless discussion about range protection vs passive fish, how he could possibly exploit us. Even if it is a reg at zoom nl50, still pointless

He GingerKid,

I am in daily contact with many poker players, from amateur to pro's. This is the super most widespread problem: not valuebetting enough and going for potcontrol too often. It may be obvious to you, but it surely isn't to a big part of the audience here.
I agree that there would be hands where 'thin valuebetting' as a topic would be a bit more of a subtle topic.

Originally posted by SvenBe
He GingerKid,

I am in daily contact with many poker players, from amateur to pro's. This is the super most widespread problem: not valuebetting enough and going for potcontrol too often. It may be obvious to you, but it surely isn't to a big part of the audience here.
I agree that there would be hands where 'thin valuebetting' as a topic would be a bit more of a subtle topic.

Yeah, ok, it depends how much understanding of equity of hand vs villians range players have, but when somebody knows that this hand has a lot of equity and blocks flushes, then it should be straightforward. Likely all none nut hands are in that case interesting for a discussion if there is a thin value bet. I play sometimes NL50 zoom, and I am impressed how players check behind super often clear value bets, and I mostly see nutted hands as 3 barrels.

Originally posted by GingerKid
Hi, why is there so much conversation about this hand, I dont find anything special. Imo it should be straightforward bet bet shove vs 2 fish on any runout except when K comes. on flop and turn hero has a tone of equity vs fish range (also vs regs), this fish is passive, so imo checking any street is burning money.

I especially find pointless discussion about range protection vs passive fish, how he could possibly exploit us. Even if it is a reg at zoom nl50, still pointless

My question about how villain could exploit us was a merely theoretical one, in a sense that I know most low stakes players will answer "he should bluff more" and that is not a correct answer.

And you said it yourself, you find it surprising how many people check back clear value bets on 50NL. I agree, that's why I chose this hand, although it seems obvious to more advanced players.