[Closed] Average downswing time?

Downswings cannot have a fixed period of time as every hand played is independent from the previous one. Think of it this way you played 1000 hands and you were down 10BIs then you continued playing 100000 hands and you are up 35BIs. In this example if you zoom into the 1k hands part you'll become depressed that you were losing money constantly. If you zoom out and see a bigger picture you'll see that actually you're a winning player. Now it's possible that bad beats are stretched to 100k hands or maybe 1million or maybe lifetime. On the other hand, a player may never experience a downswing and winning constantly despite his poor play. This is called variance and part of the game and is a good thing for the good players and bad players. Good players will play a lot of hands and in the end their skill will beat the variance. Bad players will play a lot and keep sucking out and/or will hope to hit their miracle cards. What matter is how skilled and patient we are to beat the variance. I hope this clear some fogs in your head and start to not worry about downswings but accept the reality of bad play and take counter measures...

May not make any sense, I know, but it is endless.

Example:

1st place: $26
2nd place: $6
3rd place: $4
4th place: Waste 1 hour of ones life; support mentally ill people.

Hand 1

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.3 Tournament, 125/250 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t7350)
SB (t1085)
Hero (BB) (t2055)
UTG (t1510)

Hero's M: 4.33

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, K
2 folds, SB calls t125, Hero bets t2030 (All-In), SB calls t810 (All-In)

Flop: (t2220) 3, 7, 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t2220) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t2220) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t2220

Results:
SB had 3, 8 (full house, sevens over threes).
Hero had 8, K (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: SB won t2220

The following hand:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.3 Tournament, 125/250 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t7325)
Button (t2220)
Hero (SB) (t970)
BB (t1485)

Hero's M: 2.04

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A
1 fold, Button calls t250, Hero bets t945 (All-In), BB calls t695, 1 fold

Flop: (t2240) 8, 6, 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t2240) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t2240) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t2240

Results:
Hero had K, A (one pair, threes).
BB had J, 6 (two pair, sixes and threes).
Outcome: BB won t2240

Basically this is my daily schedule. Every day for the last 3 or 4 weeks.

there are no downswings in poker, just badly played hands

someone here on PS has this signature and i agree

and i played enough poker to get sucked out on 10 times in a row but hey its your turn next so whatever

Originally posted by Leito99
there are no downswings in poker, just badly played hands

Technically not true, but the idea remains the same. If you play a session under the impression that you're currently on a downswing, you'll play worse. Just keep reminding yourself that every hand is random, and you'll only achieve results by playing correctly.

To quote a well known coach; 'Decision correct, result irrelevant.' So just keep making correct decisions. That's about it really.

Originally posted by gadget51
To quote a well known coach; 'Decision correct, result irrelevant.' So just keep making correct decisions. That's about it really.

the Truth

It's over 9000

Seconds if your lucky, hours if your not.

Originally posted by Leito99
and i played enough poker to get sucked out on 10 times in a row but hey its your turn next so whatever

I dont agree with this, and neither should many people who play on this site. Correct strategy means you're not getting your money in behind often enough to earn your fair share of suckouts.

Getting bad beats = Your playing well

Giving bad beats = Your plaaying bad.

Be happy you get bad beats

Length of downswings are not measurable and if they are lasting a long time it's probably that you have been playing bad. I have been running bad recently and I agree with my previous statement. Even though people are sucking out it cause me to lose other pots and lose more.

Hope this helps

i usualy have no more than 1day downswings
but the sadest part of it is, that i always run totaly hot before a 1day downswing starts

Originally posted by PocketAcesJohn
Getting bad beats = Your playing well

Giving bad beats = Your plaaying bad.

Be happy you get bad beats

nothing to add

Originally posted by Meemawuk

Originally posted by Leito99
and i played enough poker to get sucked out on 10 times in a row but hey its your turn next so whatever

I dont agree with this, and neither should many people who play on this site. Correct strategy means you're not getting your money in behind often enough to earn your fair share of suckouts.

Depending on what variant you are talking about. Sometimes in SNGs you just have to
be on the wrong end of the odds but its better than losing for sure the next hand when
the blinds finish you off.

Not just that, you can run into the top of peoples ranges for days at a time.

In theory a downswing can last forever, because the cards have no memory, they don't know that they were bad the last time.

However, as the sample size increases it becomes asimptotically (whatever, how's it in english?) less probable it's because of the variance and more probable you're losing money.

there are no downswings in poker, just badly played hands

Sounds good on TV, but not quite real. A lot of "pros" like to play small ball poker and rarely go all in without the nuts, so it may be a little "more" true for them, but remember the stakes they are playing!