Road From NL2 (LiamXii BR Challenge)

Hi LiamXii,
Welcome to PokerStrategy.com
I was about to suggest you join the bankroll challenge — but I see you already have.

Best of luck in the quest!
VS

Day 1 - Session 1
Brutal first session to the start of this blog. I can honestly say I didn't tilt, which I'm quite proud of. Made a lot of calls where I think in most instances I'd be ahead but luck wasn't on my side. My non-showdown line didn't dip too far, so that's a good sign right?

Having a break and will most likely crack another session after numerous breathing techniques

Anyone know how to post images as a side note? I'm struggling

Profit: $0.44 $$$ big money $$$
Bankroll: $185.66 (joined a satellite and came 22nd annoyingly, tickets were given at 9th up)

Originally posted by LiamXii
Anyone know how to post images as a side note? I'm struggling

Session 1

On the toolbar above each forum post there is an image icon — 6th from the left.
Click it, and paste in the url of the image if it already exists on the web somewhere.
Alternatively, manually enclose the image url in img tags like so:

[img] https://pasteboard.co/mpk9er3UQP7F.png [/img]

It the image you would like to post exists on your computer, find it, then just drag it into the post.

Originally posted by LiamXii
Day 1 - Session 1
Brutal first session to the start of this blog. I can honestly say I didn't tilt, which I'm quite proud of.

You should be.
Recommended reading: The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler and Barry Carter
You can follow my journey through it in the first part of my blog.

That's exactly what I was posting but it's blank on my screen, its never happened on any other forums I've been on (not my first rodeo, I'm pretty techy). I've tried 3 different image sharing websites, so I know it must be this website somehow right? haha

I've edited what you sent in my last comment? Cant see it

Thank you for the suggestion, all recommendations for reads is most welcome as I'm curious what the best material is to improve my game!

Originally posted by LiamXii
I've edited what you sent in my last comment? Cant see it

Hmmm... I didn't actually post the link.
Sometimes things get glitchy and come out worng

AHA!
The problem is that even though the URL looks like an image URL it is a link to the page containing the image.
If you go to the pasteboard.co link originally posted, right-click on the image and choose "copy image link" or similar wording, then put that in image tags you'll see this:

[img] https://gcdnb.pbrd.co/images/mpk9er3UQP7F.png [/img]

Which looks like this:

Note the urls are quite different.

Day 1 Session 2
I was rather disgruntled with my last sessions lack of progress, so gave it another crack before a hot chocolate and a movie (rewatching the Jurassic Park movies in anticipation of the new movie)

My All in EV suffered from a classic KK (hero) v AA (villain). Does anyone ever fold KK? I mean I should have known because it went from a 3 bet 3bb, I reraise 9bb then he reraises to 50bb. See below for the hand!

Regardless, a successful session apart from this hand.

AHA done, thank you!

Profit: $4.28
Bankroll: $189.92 (Nearly at my goal to move to NL5!)

Day 2 Session 1

Yet another day where I'm hit with variance. I absolutely know its down to variance (despite my all in EV, it was low because I called an all in with AQs v someone with 5bb behind, it would be criminal to fold that). The session consisted of getting good hands, missing everything and faced with high aggression. Table selection was perfect, I had super aggressive players but just had to wait for a good hand to take their money therefore my non showdown was getting lower and lower.

Finally I get KK again! Very afraid I'm up against the AA like yesterday... surely it cannot happen twice... RIGHT? ... NOPE! He had QQ... I'm like :f_love::f_love: ... but then I remembered the absolute voodoo cursed luck I've had and my spirits got lower... until I hit the K on the flop... Again I'm like :f_love::f_love: ... You can see how the rest of the hand unfolds below....

Anyways you can tell how the hand turned out by the graph, even if you dont see the hand history in the spoiler above.
I've made a start with the Poker Strategy academy guides and my range is tighter now (it hurts even more that the guides stress you get your money all in with AA and KK, which I done right). After playing poker all these years I do have a good feel for the hands and I do trust my abilities, like I have had success calling calling down to the river with just a pair of 3s because I know the other player has premium hands etc... However, I think the best thing I can do before moving up is going back to the absolute basics and saving the fancy play for another time...

I'm going to give another session a crack after a power nap I think, followed by a coffee (because I'm strange and will have coffee at night) and try to gain the $200 goal to start NL5 before nightfall.

Again thanks for reading!

Loses: $4.85
Bankroll: $184.81

Day 2 Session 2

Right, I think I'm on the road to recovery once again. I'm quite happy with my play and just think it boils down to being patient for the good hands and a little bad luck. Had an interesting hand - which knocked me down, but I think I made the right decision, and was a clear winner up until the river. It was a situation where I'd throw my "do not go all in pre flop with QQ" rule out of the window, as the player in question was a cash cow, but another player got into the pot and scooped it. Luckily he was short stacked, so I still made a 25bb profit but could have been 150bb annoyingly! Just cant seem to get the luck for the hands that mattered. I was a near 80% favourite throughout. The hand is below

Steady progress and I think I'll have a crack finally of NL2 by the weekend as I'm superstitus and I don't want to move up while I'm having a dry run. The good news is that my All In EV is climbing rapidly, which suggests I'm making good decisions - better ones than I did before. However I haven't made a real profit in nearly 9k hands now... despite that, my winrate is still 16, so I really don't know if its to do with bad play or not... whatever the reason is, I think I'm getting better.

Profit: $5.37
Bankroll: $190.15

Really seems like my luck cannot change sometimes. Literally cannot survive any all in it seems. Been stuck in the same position since I started this challenge ironically.

Heres a hand as an example and then multiply this by 10x.

Pretty happy that I'm not dropping and just staying at the same position in terms of my profit.
Only a short session and forgot to screenshot the results but bankroll is shown below.

Bankroll: $186.79

Day 3 Session 1

This grind on NL2 is literally wasting my life but hopefully I'm improving... by the way, fully aware I'm talking to myself for the past 3 days but it will be good to look back on the journey and make sure I'm learning

Had a session previously which I forgot to screenshot but nevertheless. It's getting later and the graphs tell me when I'm tired with the sudden loses

Profit: $5.45
Bankroll: 196.32

Day 4 Session 1

Whole near one hour session, very disiplined, waiting for that money maker hand... yet another AA v KK defeat. How does people cope when luck isn't on your side?!

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

MP+1: $4.05 (202.5 bb)
CO: $5.90 (295 bb)
BTN: $2.10 (105 bb)
SB: $1.80 (90 bb)
BB: $1.66 (83 bb)
UTG: $1.52 (76 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $3.51 (175.5 bb)
MP: $3.24 (162 bb)

SB posts $0.01, BB posts $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A A
UTG raises to $0.04, Hero raises to $0.16, 2 folds, CO raises to $5.90 and is all-in, 4 folds, Hero calls $3.35 and is all-in

Flop: ($7.09, 2 players) T 2 T

Turn: ($7.09, 2 players) 8

River: ($7.09, 2 players) K

Results: $7.09 pot ($0.25 rake)
Final Board: T 2 T 8 K

Hero shows A A: (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 81%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)

CO shows K K: (Full House, Kings full of Tens)
(Pre 19%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)

CO wins $6.84

Literally losing the will right now

As you can see from the picture, it was a perfect session. Does anyone think its beneficial to ever "cash out" to prevent bad luck from happening because I'd rather keep the extra but when luck like this happens, I feel like I need to cash out.

Profit/Loses: $0
Bankroll: $196.32

Originally posted by LiamXii
How does people cope when luck isn't on your side?!

Look forward and go on. But I have to admit that sometimes I am also struggling with this.

Variance is a killer. Heres another example of a hand where I think I played perfectly against two known fishes who play against the odds and got rivered

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

SB: $0.92 (46 bb)
BB: $3.25 (162.5 bb)
UTG: $2.00 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $1.58 (79 bb)
MP: $1.64 (82 bb)
MP+1: $5.82 (291 bb)
MP+2: $2.72 (136 bb)
CO: $1.00 (50 bb)
Hero (BTN): $2.41 (120.5 bb)

SB posts $0.01, BB posts $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has J J
2 folds, MP calls $0.02, MP+1 calls $0.02, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.12, 2 folds, MP calls $0.10, MP+1 calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.39, 3 players) 4 3 2
MP checks, MP+1 bets $0.38, Hero calls $0.38, MP calls $0.38

Turn: ($1.53, 3 players) 3
MP checks, MP+1 checks, Hero bets $0.60, MP calls $0.60, MP+1 calls $0.60

River: ($3.33, 3 players) Q
MP checks, MP+1 checks, Hero checks

Results: $3.33 pot ($0.12 rake)
Final Board: 4 3 2 3 Q

MP shows 6 Q: (Two Pair, Queens and Threes)
(Pre 23%, Flop 15%, Turn 7%)

MP+1 mucks 5 5: (Two Pair, Fives and Threes)
(Pre 18%, Flop 29%, Turn 21%)

Hero mucks J J: (Two Pair, Jacks and Threes)
(Pre 59%, Flop 56%, Turn 71%)

MP wins $3.21

Just want to move up the stakes but not in a downswing haha

Day 5 Session 1

Getting drained with this variance. Nearly 10k hands and was just breaking even the whole time. One hand particular took me down a good amount (knew it was a terrible call) - wasn't really a tilt (ok it was a tilt). I knew I was gonna be 50% favoruite maybe? I thought if everyone can get 7% chances on me then I can make a 40-50% just once right? Well I got punished for it.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

MP: $1.57 (78.5 bb)
MP+1: $3.21 (160.5 bb)
CO: $2.27 (113.5 bb)
BTN: $2.35 (117.5 bb)
SB: $0.19 (9.5 bb)
BB: $1.51 (75.5 bb)
UTG: $3.30 (165 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $5.03 (251.5 bb)

SB posts $0.01, BB posts $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has K A
UTG calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.09, 4 folds, SB raises to $0.19 and is all-in, fold, UTG calls $0.17, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.59, 3 players) 5 2 Q
UTG bets $0.52, Hero calls $0.52

Turn: ($1.63, 3 players) T
UTG bets $2.59 and is all-in, Hero calls $2.59

River: ($6.81, 3 players) 5

Results: $6.81 pot ($0.24 rake)
Final Board: 5 2 Q T 5

UTG shows Q J: (Two Pair, Queens and Fives)
Main Pot: [$0.59]: (Pre 28%, Flop 40%, Turn 52%)
Side Pot: [$6.22]: (Pre 34%, Flop 47%, Turn 60%)

Hero shows K A: (One Pair, Fives)
Main Pot: [$0.59]: (Pre 47%, Flop 50%, Turn 40%)
Side Pot: [$6.22]: (Pre 66%, Flop 53%, Turn 40%)

SB shows 2 9: (Two Pair, Fives and Twos)
Main Pot: [$0.59]: (Pre 25%, Flop 10%, Turn 7%)

UTG wins $6.57

Time for a break, cool off and play properly next session.

Loses: $9.17
Bankroll: $187.13

Anyone think I should swallow my pride and start cashing out? I literally cannot win any 80% flip pre flop
I look at AA and KK and my immediate thought is im about to lose my money here lmao

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

MP: $1.97 (98.5 bb)
Hero (MP+1): $2.04 (102 bb)
CO: $0.78 (39 bb)
BTN: $2.48 (124 bb)
SB: $3.32 (166 bb)
BB: $1.98 (99 bb)
UTG: $7.40 (370 bb)
UTG+1: $1.91 (95.5 bb)

SB posts $0.01, BB posts $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has K K
fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, MP calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.08, CO raises to $0.78 and is all-in, 5 folds, Hero calls $0.70

Flop: ($1.63, 2 players) A T 9

Turn: ($1.63, 2 players) 6

River: ($1.63, 2 players) 3

Results: $1.63 pot ($0.06 rake)
Final Board: A T 9 6 3

Hero shows K K: (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 72%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)

CO shows A Q: (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 28%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)

CO wins $1.57

Literally me rn

The poker gods answered my prayers and gave me this miracle just as I posted this though, what a beauty

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

BTN: $1.56 (78 bb)
SB: $1.56 (78 bb)
BB: $1.51 (75.5 bb)
UTG: $2.57 (128.5 bb)
UTG+1: $3.33 (166.5 bb)
MP: $3.11 (155.5 bb)
MP+1: $0.84 (42 bb)
Hero (CO): $3.50 (175 bb)

SB posts $0.01, BB posts $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has 3 3
2 folds, MP calls $0.02, fold, Hero raises to $0.06, BTN calls $0.06, 2 folds, MP calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.21, 3 players) 3 5 5
MP checks, Hero bets $0.10, fold, MP calls $0.10

Turn: ($0.41, 2 players) 4
MP checks, Hero bets $0.22, MP raises to $0.44, Hero raises to $0.66, MP raises to $2.95 and is all-in, Hero calls $2.29

River: ($6.31, 2 players) T

Results: $6.31 pot ($0.22 rake)
Final Board: 3 5 5 4 T

MP shows 2 A: (Straight, Five High)
(Pre 35%, Flop 1%, Turn 0%)

Hero shows 3 3: (Full House, Threes full of Fives)
(Pre 65%, Flop 99%, Turn 100%)

Hero wins $6.09

Originally posted by LiamXii
Anyone think I should swallow my pride and start cashing out? I literally cannot win any 80% flip pre flop
I look at AA and KK and my immediate thought is im about to lose my money here lmao

In reality, that is pretty much the worst thing you could do.
In this case you played it properly vs a short stack who got lucky.

How often will this happen?
Using Equilab (which is free btw) you can see where you stand vs a short-stack shoving range.

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP3    75.02%  74.27%   0.75% { KK }
CO     24.98%  24.23%   0.75% { 99+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo }

73% of the time you will win vs this range by getting it in pre-flop.
If you cash out, you will get 73% of $1.63 — or $1.19 — less the 16 cent fee so $1.03
But 78 cents of that was yours to begin with, so you make a mere $0.25 profit.

Poker is a long-term game.

I highly recommend "The Mental Game of Poker" by Jared Tendler and Barry Carter.
It won't help you gain luck, but it will help you understand what is happening inside your own head.
Check out the first part of my blog "Mind Games" for a bit of an understanding of what the book is about.

One of the best things this book teaches is how to study and improve.

Absolutely, I know the math's isn't correct and thats why I never cash out but I've seen some streamers do it in certain occassions, so I was wondering if there was cases where it was good insurance to use the flawed math system of cashing out.

I have noted down the book in my to read section although I'm currently studying the poker strategy guides before I'm demoted from gold - as I can't seem to get tracked on pokerstars to earn points Thank you for your suggestion

The player in the example was a known maniac also and thats why I made the call with ease (pre flop of course)

I sometimes get cashout too. On this limit too often we get unlucky spot because someone go crazy and better for example win something with cashouts or lose three times in row when we have better hand with 80-90% chance to win (for example).