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Probably the best plog in the world

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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

PLO5, as my bankroll challenge is planned to be solely that stake.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

I felt bad for most of this month, as I got nasty session and run about 16 buyins under EV. But that seems a bit silly when you look at the total graph from the first half of this year:

Spoiler

Running well over EV and the overall direction is pretty damn good. Volume wise I am a little bit behind, but I knew that I will play more on the summer. Yearly goal was around 150K hands if I remember right.


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taavi1337
Joined: 29.05.2009

I think super nice marathon, I can't wait to do something like that, but recently I have found I like 1000+ bi brm, so it will be gradual climbing with support money from other sources. +40bb/100 at PLO5 is impressive, I would be very happy with +20bb/100.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

First session of the month, and the tide did not turn.

Spoiler

Once again one of those sessions that gave very mixed feelings. On the other hand I read situations and opponents well, and managed to build big pots with better hands. The problem was that those opponents with worse hands managed to hit few outers quite often before all the money was in the pot. And also one pot with deep stacks where I got monster draw vs dry AA all-in on the flop, and I had 74% with my 7high drawing hand. Not enough. And of course top set vs bottom set, and opponent decided to call my re-raise instead of a shove, leaving 1/10 pot behind. Turned 1 outer and the rest went in. But in the end, as I got most of my stack in multiple times as a big favorite, that's all I can ask. But it would be nice to have at least one session where opponents won't hit their low equity hands all the time.

And sort of a bad beat also:

Spoiler

On the river I lead with a smallish sizing, and opponent doesn't even raise with nut flush. He had about 50bb behind there after his call. The one time I get straight flush vs nut flush it happens against the scariest nit of the pool, lol! :f_drink:


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Instead of posting bad beats to Quads, I'm doing the opposite:

Spoiler

I think this was a limped pot (limp from the BTN with AJ87ss FTW!), I bet the flop and turn. Opponent has the nuts with a nfd on the turn, and he just calls my bet. Serves him well! On the river I made small bet and opponent raised. Passive player, so I thought that "damn, he has Aces!". Re-raised, money went in and I was sure to see Aces. I think he missed that the board paired and thought he had the nuts still.

Spoiler

This was nasty. On the flop opponent bets 1bb, and I call. On the turn I check, he bets 1bb and I raise less than a pot, he calls. On the river I bet and he shoves. Opponent left the table quite quickly after this hand.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Got a minor boost to my Coin Poker roll from PokerStrategy freeroll, won around $40. On cash tables it was a day of good customers. Too bad they run quite well, making once again 1-2 outers on the river while I have them on the ropes. But overall a profitable day, I'll take it!


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

There was THE chance today, I had AAKJss on AQTss board 5way, 3bet pot. And I was 350bb deep with a really good customer. Too bad he didn't have anything and folded on the flop.

I also found out today that you need to manually transfer all the promotion money to your account. All my leaderboard wins (and is there a rakeback?) was waiting there.

This is common spot that I see at micros over and over again, even from the regs. If I see this from a reg, I usually think "that's what keeps you from progressing, you don't think".

Spoiler

Opponent limp-called pre, I bet the flop and he calls. Turn goes check-check, and he leads pot on the river.

Is that a bluff or a valuebet? It doesn't work as either one. If it's value, what worse hand will call that bet? Especially when it's full pot. And if it's a bluff, it might work some of the time, but why waste all that showdown value?
I used to approach river situations with medium strength hands through my Basic River Model. I think I have presented it in some of my videos. If not, if anyone is interested I can make a post about it. Basicly it's old school, easy approach to those river situations. What I like the most in that model, that it teaches people to compare the EV of different lines/decisions. And once that can is opened, it can be transferred to all decisions and the game elevates to whole new level.


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Had funny spot today. So I defended BvB (or might have been BUvsCO) with KK78 with call. Flop comes JT9. Quickly recognising that this is funky hand to have. Villain bet and I call. Turn was blank, second barrel and I call. I am thinking here this is tough one to find fold on river. River comes Q, no flush or paired board. Villain check and I am now wondering if I should suddenly bluff with aim to get Q high and maybe even K high straight to fold. Though I think later is not happening often at all as I might be value betting same hand. With pot sizing that might not be true though.

In the end decided to check hoping he had some AQJJ type. Well he shows up with KKJ2 type so it was bluff with nut blockers and gs that completed on river. This hand would never x-fold with two K. Might be crazy idea to bluff on river but did think it for good while :)


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Not crazy, as there is solid logic behind it. PLO is a funny game. Sometimes we turn really strong hands to a bluff and sometimes we don't even valuebet 2nd nuts on the river.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

PS just published my video about PLO MTT basics. If you are interested in PLO tournaments, but not sure how they differ from HE MTT's, then that video is just for you! https://www.pokerstrategy.com/video/55603/

Found a new reg from the pool today. Preflop stats were quite solid, but he made these kind of mistakes quite a lot:

Spoiler

140bb deep money goes in on the flop, single raised pot. He bets, I raise, and he re-raises. And he made similar play in multiple multiway spots where SPR was high. Shoving naked top2, oesd, fd etc.

The thing is, that in every hand he has decent equity versus my stack off range. And once I raise the flop in mw pot, that says "let's get it in" most of the times and he is never ahead of that range. Like here, he has top pair and naked oesd on flushdraw flop. When I raise the flop, he needs to make a decision: is my range 56 or do I have bluffs and semibluffs in my range? Most likely here it was a case of:
A) he thinks my range is wider and I might have semibluffs or pure bluffs in my range. The problem is that even my 55,66 range has a bit over 50% versus his hand. I would fold that part, unless I have something along it. His re-raise has definitely some FE, but on the other hand the part that is not folding has him in bad shape.
B) he doesn't know the odds and just thinks PLO is a game where you are supposed to shove any hand that has a lot of outs. Well, PLO is not that kind of game overall and he has just 6-7 outs which is not enough to stack off in high SPR situation.

But that is quite common among low stakes reg, they make -EV shoves as they don't really think about pot odds and equities. And as the spots are so "little" -EV, they don't even realize it. They just wonder why they are not winning more in the long run. But -10bb decision is -10bb decision, no matter where it happens. And it's quite costly mistake, if it happens multiple times in a session.


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Massive mistake to stack off with plain top pair and oesd on that one. Seems like clear check back. With decent spade blocker I don't mind cbet-folding as this sort of flop is not supposed to hit SB that often. That said we seem to widen calling range but kinda reasonable if these sort of overplays happen.


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taavi1337
Joined: 29.05.2009

Yeah lol I hate when they do that when I play at too high stakes, they still have 35% and can kick me down if lucky :D


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Another quite common mistake I saw today multiple times is when regs call a pot sized bet on the flop with naked fd oop. Even if it's nfd, it's super hard to make it +EV. But it shows that even regs are often quite lost about EV, pot odds etc.

Example, REG faces pot sized bet (10bb) on K♥:9♥:7♠: board. If they play with only their fd, they will hit it 1/5 times (assuming opponent doesn't have a fd). So to call 10bb, they need to win at least 50bb to make the call break even. After the call, pot is 30bb. So they need at least 20bb in value to make the Flop call profitable. Now the problem is, how to get that value? If turn completes the flush, they often check it. Opponent can check back, and it's a free card to him. And if the river is a blank, they need to bet big (almost a pot sized bet to make it +EV) and assume that opponent calls it almost always.

If opponent has lower fd, there is some value to be gained. But that means 2 outs less, so they will hit the flush 1/6 times. Now even with pot sized value it's just break even call on the flop.

What if they lead the Turn? Well, if opponent has lower flush, they will get value. But as we just calculated, even pot sized valuebet is not enough, they need to get something more on the river. This happens when opponent has 2nd nut flush, but most of the time they won't get the value. So even if they get that max value sometimes, in the long run it's not even close to make the Flop call +EV.

If opponent has a set and they lead pot on the Turn? Opponent calls with 25% equity. So with a bet of 30bb, their value is 22bb. That is just 2bb more than breakeven, and with the rake it turns to -EV. They might get some value with a blank river and a small bet, but there's also reversed implied odds with pairing river and a small bet from opponent. So those cancel each other out.

So in the end, it's quite hard to make calling with naked fd +EV when facing a big bet oop. You should have some extra equity (couple of backdoors give nice boost to equity) and/or some plans to make bluffs on certain runouts. But I see regs making those calls with naked fd or even oesd (which is never +EV on itself against a big bet).

Today's session was a good one, although I run a bit under EV.

Spoiler

As you can see, there is a nasty moment of bad beats.

This one was naughty, run it twice did not help me.

Spoiler

CO: 174.8 BB (VPIP: 46.03, PFR: 28.87, 3Bet Preflop: 11.75, Hands: 2,092)
BTN: 104.2 BB (VPIP: 67.20, PFR: 17.11, 3Bet Preflop: 7.64, Hands: 566)
SB: 206 BB (VPIP: 31.58, PFR: 16.10, 3Bet Preflop: 2.63, Hands: 2,451)
Hero (BB): 329.8 BB
UTG: 143 BB (VPIP: 48.42, PFR: 16.22, 3Bet Preflop: 1.44, Hands: 448)
MP: 467.4 BB (VPIP: 25.04, PFR: 11.57, 3Bet Preflop: 1.33, Hands: 1,323)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q:diamond: 8:heart: 9:spade: 7:diamond:

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, CO raises to 10.4 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 9.4 BB, UTG calls 7.4 BB

This is a misclick, I thought it's a single raised pot.

Flop: (31.6 BB, 3 players) J:club: 6:heart: T:diamond:
Hero bets 31.6 BB, fold, CO calls 31.6 BB

Opponent doesn't over cbet Flops, so I decided just to pot donk. He calls my pot bet with pair+gs and backdoors.

Turn: (94.8 BB, 2 players) 9:diamond:
Hero bets 94.8 BB, CO raises to 132.8 BB, Hero calls 38 BB

River: (360.4 BB, 2 players) 8:diamond:

Players agreed to run it twice.

River #2: (360.4 BB, 2 players) 5:diamond:

CO shows 9:club: K:diamond: T:club: A:diamond: (Flush, Ace High)
Board #1 (Pre 64%, Flop 61%, Turn 33%)
(Flush, Ace High)
Board #2 (Pre 65%, Flop 63%, Turn 31%)

Hero mucks Q:diamond: 8:heart: 9:spade: 7:diamond: (Flush, Queen High)
Board #1 (Pre 36%, Flop 39%, Turn 68%)
(Flush, Queen High)
Board #2 (Pre 35%, Flop 37%, Turn 69%)

CO wins 174.2 BB
CO wins 174.2 BB

Just what I was talking about earlier:

Spoiler

BTN: 175.8 BB (VPIP: 46.02, PFR: 28.92, 3Bet Preflop: 11.84, Hands: 2,071)
SB: 143.8 BB (VPIP: 35.65, PFR: 23.54, 3Bet Preflop: 14.14, Hands: 449)
BB: 181.8 BB (VPIP: 45.43, PFR: 11.55, 3Bet Preflop: 1.23, Hands: 5,948)
UTG: 225.4 BB (VPIP: 34.88, PFR: 23.03, 3Bet Preflop: 10.44, Hands: 1,559)
Hero (MP): 267.6 BB
CO: 92.6 BB (VPIP: 21.23, PFR: 15.70, 3Bet Preflop: 9.93, Hands: 1,435)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:spade: J:club: 9:heart: 2:club:

fold, Hero raises to 3.4 BB, CO raises to 11.6 BB, BTN calls 11.6 BB, SB calls 11.2 BB, fold, Hero calls 8.2 BB

Flop: (47.4 BB, 4 players) 5:heart: 3:diamond: J:diamond:
SB checks, Hero bets 47.4 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 47.4 BB

Calls a pot sized bet with naked oesd. And cold called 3bet with TT64ss. This is actually one of the few solid'ish regs in the pool, and they all make mistakes like this.

Turn: (142.2 BB, 2 players) T:heart:
SB bets 84.8 BB, Hero calls 84.8 BB

River: (311.8 BB, 2 players) 2:heart:

SB shows T:spade: 4:heart: T:diamond: 6:heart: (Flush, Ten High)
(Pre 33%, Flop 26%, Turn 30%)
Hero mucks J:spade: J:club: 9:heart: 2:club: (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 67%, Flop 74%, Turn 70%)
SB wins 301.6 BB


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taavi1337
Joined: 29.05.2009

Sick variance! Good to see that PLO is beatable!


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Lol, I got a bit of a problem with Coinpoker. Deposit was possible with normal debit card, but just found out that withdraw is possible only through crypto wallets. I am quite a noob with cryptos, I have used crypto wallet to receive payments some years ago and I remember how confusing it was to get crypto value to my normal bank account. But the initial $50 from PokerStrategy seems to bloat and bloat.


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taavi1337
Joined: 29.05.2009

So the game is over and you have to trade with grown-ups 🤣🤣🤣


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Probably going to lose some money in conversion when I withdraw crypto to my wallet, and then to my bank account. But that's the only option.

This month has been good volume wise, we are halfway there and I got a bit over 8K hands. When I started the bankroll challenge, I thought that 10K hands per month is the minimum that I'm aiming for.

This is another spot that some regs seem to do, and I just don't get it:

Spoiler

MP: 174.8 BB (VPIP: 32.06, PFR: 16.63, 3Bet Preflop: 3.66, Hands: 2,934)
CO: 166.6 BB (VPIP: 57.84, PFR: 35.36, 3Bet Preflop: 7.66, Hands: 2,673)
BTN: 114.8 BB (VPIP: 36.18, PFR: 17.99, 3Bet Preflop: 7.08, Hands: 2,454)
SB: 104.8 BB (VPIP: 70.59, PFR: 2.48, 3Bet Preflop: 1.13, Hands: 327)
BB: 46.2 BB (VPIP: 49.80, PFR: 11.34, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 247)
Hero (UTG): 106.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:spade: 8:diamond: 7:diamond: 7:spade:

Hero raises to 3.4 BB, MP calls 3.4 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 3 BB, fold

Flop: (11.2 BB, 3 players) 4:spade: 4:heart: 7:heart:
SB checks, Hero bets 5.6 BB, MP calls 5.6 BB, fold

I get this Flop call, especially as I have cbet these boards a lot. The problem is that if I have trips+, I will barrel turn for sure. If the flush comes, it's really hard for him to get value for it. This call is +EV only against my bluffs, and even then quite barely. I think the EV goes up if he bluffs on blank turns if I check.

Turn: (22.4 BB, 2 players) 2:heart:
Hero bets 15.6 BB, MP raises to 69.2 BB, Hero raises to 97.2 BB, MP calls 28 BB

Turn completes the flush, and versus this opponent I bet as he doesn't bluff ~ever in this spot. He decides to raise and money goes in.

The problem in this raise is that it's a valueraise and it targets very narrow range. Pretty much 4x and K high flushes. Out of those, K high flush should fold. And naked 4x should not usually bet the turn in the first place. He will draw dead versus my boats and all my bluffs are going to fold. In the long run I think he gets more value by just calling, if he thinks I have bluffs in my turn/river barrel range.

In the end it's quite an overplay, as he was drawing flush in paired board, and wanted to get the money in drawing dead with SPR 4, when I represented a boat (which I had). Most likely he thinks it's just a cooler, and doesn't realize he is throwing money away in the long run.

River: (216.8 BB, 2 players) 7:club:

MP shows 9:heart: 5:spade: A:heart: 5:club: (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 40%, Flop 0.1%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows J:spade: 8:diamond: 7:diamond: 7:spade: (Four of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 60%, Flop 99.9%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 209.6 BB


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Essentially when betting this turn we say we have nut flush, boat, some trips and potentially some low equity holding like 7889. Trips are actually somewhat often barreling these spots theory wise (afaik) with idea of putting pressure on flushes. Not sure if that's the case on such low paired board though. But does require assumption opponent is capable of folding something.

When he raises most of weaker (if not all) is folding so it doesn't make much sense. Also he doesn't block any of your boats and 5 is potentially not clean. So personally if my assumption is hero is not overplaying weaker flushes I would not hate even folding turn. It's of course kinda stupid to fold after hitting flush but this is very strong turn barrel from most players. If calling turn we really pray seeing check on river and should likely just check behind. Though versus recreational betting small could be option.

Otherwise villain should just fold pre as 9 is kinda worst card for A55. Flop call I like as 55 is kinda nice on any straightening turn.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Have been playing at CoinPoker for a while now. PokerStrategy's initial free $50 is now $250, which is quite remarkable as I have been playing only PLO2 and PLO5. Idea was to use that $50 for streams, as otherwise I probably wouldn't have deposited to CoinPoker. You can deposit there with normal debit card, but all withdrawals are cryptos.

They have Anjouan license, which is somewhere in India. Here comes the minor trust issue with me. Few years ago I played in Indian games, somewhat closed network for mostly Indian players. They had forced run it twice, and I noticed quickly that the underdog won almost always the second run. It was a bit suspicious, as those one outers seemed to hit very often. Not just for my opponents, but for me too. I searched the internet for information, and found out a post where former employee told that the rng is rigged for RIT, to keep people playing longer. Of course, that is nowhere reliable info, but if there's enough smoke... I decided to quit playing there, as once you lose your trust it becomes mentally challenging to play.

With CoinPoker I am not sure how much I trust them. I have a feeling that I have received a lot of bad beats, but without a tracker it's hard to say the truth. They have their own metrics, and they show that I have been running a bit bad. For the whole month, winrate is quite close to EV winrate, if those numbers are accurate. And of course, when opponents make a lot of loose calls, they will hit their low-equity hands more often.

I just looked how much I have won from the promotions, and it's quite sick. $100 from leaderboards, rakeback and deposit bonus. That is more than my winrate, which is 22bb/100 atm. Not sure what the leaderboards and games are at higher stakes, but at least for micro players CoinPoker is definitely a valid option atm.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

One of the weirdest hands of this summer:

Spoiler

Hero (SB): 293.6 BB
BB: 148.6 BB (VPIP: 20.88, PFR: 13.37, 3Bet Preflop: 1.81, Hands: 847)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 24.17, PFR: 15.69, 3Bet Preflop: 9.65, Hands: 9,033)
MP: 90.8 BB (VPIP: 25.59, PFR: 11.66, 3Bet Preflop: 1.52, Hands: 1,778)
CO: 284 BB (VPIP: 60.66, PFR: 11.48, 3Bet Preflop: 5.41, Hands: 62)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 35.33, PFR: 17.51, 3Bet Preflop: 7.36, Hands: 2,980)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 5:diamond: 8:diamond: A:diamond: A:spade:

fold, fold, CO calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, CO raises to 7 BB, Hero raises to 22 BB, CO raises to 37 BB, Hero raises to 112 BB, CO raises to 187 BB, Hero raises to 293.6 BB, CO calls 97 BB

CO is 60/11/5, passive player. Limp-minraise, that screams for AA. We are almost 300bb deep and at this point all the options sounded bad. Do I want to get it in with a flip and big rake? Or just call and try to make a passive player to fold his AA? And hope he hasn't hit the board better? And if so, at what point do we call, what SPR are we looking for?

I thought about those options, and decided to just raise and get it in if possible. At least that is quaranteed mistake-free line and I don't have to second quess my decisions.

Flop: (569 BB, 2 players) A:heart: J:heart: 4:diamond:

Well, he didn't have Aces, but ds Kings. And behold, my Aces held in a huge pot!

Turn: (569 BB, 2 players) 6:spade:

River: (569 BB, 2 players) 7:club:

Hero shows 5:diamond: 8:diamond: A:diamond: A:spade: (Straight, Eight High)
(Pre 62%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)
CO shows K:spade: J:club: 8:spade: K:club: (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 38%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins 550.2 BB


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