That is much tougher riddle to solve.
I would still avoid higher stakes and bury the dream of solo career; but this could not be satisfying for the player who has already lost money.
A bit clueless with this one, can't really help !?
Notifications
Clear all
hits his 5-15% couple outer. I hope that the whole month wouldn't be like this. I am leaving to cabin at Friday, last time I went to a cabin I got one week of horror run.
Ah I get it now. The "negative expectation" scared me a little bit ♦ But without the fear I can read this valuable text clearly.
Rational thinking: it doesn't matter where I play, the variance is what it is. There are no greater forces that cares what I do or where I do it.
Superstitious thinking: last time I was in a cabin, I got doomswitched badly. I fear that this time the same thing will happen. And I had a good month and posted about it, karma will get me and give me a bad run this month.
Rational thinking is correct, unless one believes in supernatural things like God, karma, universum giving a shit about me etc. Superstitious thinking is our emotions talking, and the need to find order in randomness and fill the gaps with assumptions.
In reality I don't think that there are things like karma, God or universial force. But it makes a fun story.
I played a bit more yesterday, and it was swingy. Everytime I started to build profits, I got whacked. And then in the end a new aggro sat into tables, and wanted to gample with almost any hand. HU with him has VARIANCE written all over, and I was the one who suffered. But in the end day was profitable, and despite of the dip in the beginning the EV line started to climb back up as always. It's just putting up the volume to beat the variance. That's what I can do in the cabin.
I just need to wait for 4 days, will pack my car and get there at Friday. One week of just me, 2 dogs, Super Bowl, loads of good food, and computer.
Let the swingaments begin!
Played couple of sessions today, the ride looked like this:
Spoiler
Besides that upwing on EV graph, it felt like I was tying to run in a swamp. No matter what I did, it didn't work out. Slowplaying vs aggros, got beat. Playing fast vs aggros, got beat. Making big bets with +90% equity, getting beat on the rivers. And for every move, bluff, slowplay etc. the timing seemed to be just wrong. And couple aggro guys just made super strange stuff, and seemed to get the absolute best outcomes. Someone who 3bet pretty much most of the hands, decides to limp-call with AA. He also had stacked off on the flop with absolute air, and on AQQ flop I thought my AQ was in good shape. This guy donated stacks to everyone else, and always versus me he had a strong hand and I had slightly weaker. Or I got sucked out. Very frustrating. I reminded to myself throughout sessions that "keep it simple, don't start to force action or overplay anything. You will make profits versus these guys by just being patient."
Funny thing is that the very last hand took me to +1€ profit!
Rough day overall. As you can see the graph goes up and down with couple of really nasty drops. A lot of aggros on the tables, and managed to get 600bb pot with one. It was a flip in the end, and didn't end in my favor. But story has a happy ending, day ended up in "normal" profit and run.
Spoiler
Day started with HU hand versus a reg when sitting to tables, all-in on the flop with my 2p+fd versus dry KK. Turn K, and he left the table. Right after that happened this hand:
Spoiler
This is preflop allin with 100bb stacks. I have no idea how CO, who is about 60/0/0 player managed to get into that position. CO limps, BTN opens, I 3bet from BB. CO calls, and BTN (54/5/5) goes for 4bet. I shove, CO calls and BTN calls.
When the flop hit I was thinking "ok, this is the way today is going to go". But there is some justice in this world, and 6% equity is enough to make it by the river.
Don't be like CO or BTN. No reason to 4bet from BTN, as there is no FE. With 4bet the hand becomes 3way all-in and AQT7ds is never a favorite there. And if I (as 3bettor) have AA, he has poor equity. Just call and see if the flop is good enough.
Cabin curse is gone!
Spoiler
This is probably one of the weirdest hands I have ever played in PLO:
Spoiler
BTN: 99.8 BB (VPIP: 52.40, PFR: 0.74, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 544)
SB: 106.4 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 66.67, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 9)
BB: 346.8 BB (VPIP: 82.35, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 34)
Hero (CO): 137.6 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T:spade: T:diamond: 9:diamond: 3:diamond:
Hero raises to 3.4 BB, BTN calls 3.4 BB, SB calls 3 BB, BB calls 2.4 BB
4 handed, and my brain registered stats from only those two good customers. Third one seemed to be an aggro, only 9 hands though. But the hand is not a normal open. In a table full of passive players, I do open TT+ pocket pairs as the value for sets is really high. But with an assumed aggro, this should be skipped. Luckily, everyone just calls.
Flop: (13.6 BB, 4 players) 7:heart: T:club: T:heart:
SB bets 1 BB, BB calls 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB, fold
Quads time! Usually with quads it's hard to get value, here couple of draws helps it. Mr. Assumed Aggro mindonks. I thought that if I raise, it's harder to get a lot of value in the end, and if he is indeed an aggro let's give him the rope and hope he does something really stupid. If all the players were more passive, definitely a small raise would be the way to go.
Turn: (16.6 BB, 3 players) 8:spade:
SB bets 1 BB, BB calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 5 BB, SB calls 4 BB, BB calls 4 BB
Another minbet, and I realize that this way the pot is never going to bet big. But too big of a raise gives them an easy way out, so I enter their game and make a really small raise. Both call and the pot starts to brew.
River: (31.6 BB, 3 players) J:spade:
SB bets 1 BB, BB calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 24.8 BB, SB calls 23.8 BB, BB raises to 130.8 BB, Hero calls 103.4 BB, SB calls 72.2 BB
Minbet #3, and now is my last chance to build the pot. Don't want to raise for full pot, so casual 75'ish raise. I thought that if either one of them calls it's good. Aggro calls, and mr. passive makes 130bb raise. I just thought that "oh you have JJ, nasty cooler bro". And after that the aggro calls and I am a bit lost what the hell he could have.
Well, aggro had a Seven. A SEVEN! And it didn't seem like a misclick. I am not sure how HE is played, can you hero call there with K7 after a big raise and call? Most likely not. And the raiser? He had low straight on the turn and Q9 straight on the river. Some people learn the hard way what it means in PLO if board is paired and people start to pile money to the pot.
Hero shows T:spade: T:diamond: 9:diamond: 3:diamond: (Four of a Kind, Tens)
Main Pot [322.6 BB]: (Pre 40%, Flop 100%, Turn 100%)
Side Pot#1 [62.4 BB]: (Pre 60%, Flop 100%, Turn 100%)
SB shows K:spade: 3:club: 7:spade: 5:diamond: (Two Pair, Tens and Sevens)
Main Pot [322.6 BB]: (Pre 33%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)
BB shows Q:spade: 4:spade: 6:heart: 9:spade: (Straight, Queen High)
Main Pot [322.6 BB]: (Pre 26%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)
Side Pot#1 [62.4 BB]: (Pre 40%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins 372.2 BB
Cabin week is over. Got a little sick in last days, so volume ended up a bit lower than I planned. The very last hand of the week was one of those "oh come on..." moments. There is an aggro player, who 3bets around 15% of hands, but the range is not anywhere near top 15%. It's all over the place, he 3bets when he feels like it. It might be dry pocket pairs, strong hands or some 9997r crap in multiway pot. So no strategy, he is purely gambling. We are a bit over 200bb deep, I open, he 3bets and 40bb short recreational 4bets. I have AKKTds, and I 5bet. And of course he wakes up with AAKx. Nothing special here, but the timing...
Overall graph of for the week:
Spoiler
So overall run pretty well, can't complain. There were a lot of nasty suckouts for opponents, but also few for me.
When you wonder how hard it is to get value for quads, sometimes it goes like this:
Spoiler
CO: 64.8 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
Hero (BTN): 129 BB
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.76, PFR: 13.41, 3Bet Preflop: 3.73, Hands: 3,390)
BB: 49.4 BB (VPIP: 94.12, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
UTG: 180.6 BB (VPIP: 75.18, PFR: 26.71, 3Bet Preflop: 1.80, Hands: 1,708)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 8:club: 9:diamond: 8:diamond: 7:diamond:
UTG raises to 3.4 BB, fold, Hero calls 3.4 BB, fold, BB calls 2.4 BB
UTG is a bit aggro reg, BB is the target player in the table.
Flop: (10.6 BB, 3 players) 9:club: J:diamond: 9:spade:
BB bets 2 BB, UTG calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 9.2 BB, BB calls 7.2 BB, fold
BB has been donking 1bb or 2bb on almost every flop so far, where 1bb seems to be whatever and 2bb something that he likes a bit more. Doesn't really fold much.
Turn: (31 BB, 2 players) 9:heart:
BB bets 4 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, BB calls 6 BB
Nice turn, but usually it's really hard to get value from anything else than JJ or AA/KK. BB bets 4bb, which is more than usually. He has 36bb behind, which is a bit nasty. If I raise too much, he will fold a lot. I raised to 10bb, but looking this back now I would like to raise to 12bb or so, 3x. He calls.
River: (51 BB, 2 players) 4:diamond:
BB checks, Hero bets 13 BB, BB calls 13 BB
I thought that if he continues to increase the sizing, he would lead here for 6bb and I could raise the rest. But he checks, and the interesting question here is my sizing. I think this is very good example of a linear calling range. The bigger I bet, the more he folds. So where is the sweet spot? I went for really small bet, as I estimate that his range is still really wide. To this sizing I think I will get calls from all pocket pairs. He calls with singel J, and now it's clear that he doesn't know the rules of PLO. Probably thinks that it was a bad beat as he lost with a nut boat. These kind of players were common 10 years ago, but nowadays it's really rare even at the lowest stakes.
Hero shows 8:club: 9:diamond: 8:diamond: 7:diamond: (Four of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 47%, Flop 84%, Turn 100%)
BB shows 5:club: 6:diamond: Q:diamond: J:club: (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 53%, Flop 16%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins 74.6 BB
Here is my WTF?!! moment of the day:
Spoiler
Single raised 5way pot, 18bb in the pot. Flop goes checked, turn gives me the set and it gets checked to me. Easy pot, and I get 3 calls. I was thinking that oh boy there are bad turns, but at least 1/3 times the board pairs. As all non-pairing rivers completes at least a straight. Well, river completes some straights and the flush. They all check, and I thought that "well, it was a good bet on the turn...". And then the pot goes to my way. Didn't see that one coming!
Ah those two guys calling on your left in TT33ss hand are real testemant for good table. Though that EP guy not cbetting low SPR on flop also seems weird.
Long time no see. Another roller coaster session:
Spoiler
Very frustrating session overall, people called 3bets and 4bets a lot with pocket pairs, and kept hitting those sets. And quite good customer called my turn "shove" couple of times with a draw, leaving himself 2bb and 3bb behind. And of course hit the draw. Overall results don't care but EV graph does. But hey, in the end it ended for profits. This month has started with a nasty run, about 10 buyins under EV so far.
I am also working with a video once again, about fundamentals of PLO MTT's. I wish I had time and patience to play them. 
Frustrating session all the way, whole month has been like running in a swamp. I go forward (=profits), but it's slow and heavy. About 10K hands so far in this month, and running 18 buyins under EV. For the last 7K hands it has been virtually break even, for every profitable session there is one losing session. And in reality I am running a bit worse, there are few hands versus certain maniac where I trap him nicely 250bb deep with a boat, and call his river shove. Only to see he has hit 2 outer. Same situation versus same player, as I said frustrating. 
This was my WTF? moment of the session:
Spoiler
CO: 95.2 BB (VPIP: 67.65, PFR: 2.94, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
BTN: 49.6 BB (VPIP: 74.42, PFR: 17.44, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 86)
SB: 35.2 BB (VPIP: 78.51, PFR: 1.24, 3Bet Preflop: 2.00, Hands: 242)
BB: 181 BB (VPIP: 76.70, PFR: 15.66, 3Bet Preflop: 5.94, Hands: 1,595)
Hero (UTG): 123.4 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9:heart: 3:heart: Q:club: Q:spade:
Hero raises to 3.4 BB, CO calls 3.4 BB, BTN calls 3.4 BB, SB calls 3 BB, BB calls 2.4 BB
Flop: (17 BB, 5 players) 3:spade: 3:club: 3:diamond:
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 5 BB, CO raises to 16 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 27 BB, CO calls 11 BB
5way with 4 good customers, who might call 2-3 streets with pocket pairs. Small bet, just to make it hard for them to fold any decent/big pocket pair. 68/3/0 opponent, who has so far checked back nuts and bet just 1bb on the river with them multiple times decides to raise, which is really weird. I had to think for a while what to do here. I know that what ever he has, he is not going to bet it if I call and check turn/river. So my options are small raise, big raise (try to get it in here), or a call and then lead turn/river. I think that if he has AA what that seems to be, I can get the money in easiest by making a small raise and then bet, bet. On the other hand, he should fold here everything but AA. But it doesn't hit his profile to raise that anyway.
Turn: (71 BB, 2 players) 7:heart:
Hero bets 23 BB, CO calls 23 BB
He calls, and I am most certain he has AA/KK. Small bet on the turn, to leave less than half a pot for the river.
River: (117 BB, 2 players) 8:club:
Hero bets 47 BB, CO calls 41.8 BB
And he calls it, well played. Except when he shows that hand, and I am quite lost on what is going on in here. On those 34 hands I saw zero bluff catchs and zero bluffs. Now he does both of them in a BIG WAY.
CO shows 8:diamond: A:heart: Q:diamond: 5:club: (Three of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 48%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows 9:heart: 3:heart: Q:club: Q:spade: (Four of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 52%, Flop 100%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 194 BB
In those scenarios I love the mindset book "Poker Therapy" which focuses on in-game concentration and thinking winning-poker-relevant thoughts while in a poker hand. So in-game for example we don't think anymore: "nasty two-outer" but we look at our cards in the next hand and make adjustments according to our reads on other players. This psychology "classic" works for other sports as well, such as running or playing soccer vs kids.
There is one reg who plays otherwise somewhat solid PLO, but after 3betting he pretty much shoves any flop with overpair. Won two buyins from him almost back to back when he shoved flop with 2 outers. Here I think he tilted.
Spoiler
BB: 302.6 BB (VPIP: 35.40, PFR: 17.78, 3Bet Preflop: 6.10, Hands: 1,775)
Hero (SB): 206 BB
Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 5:club: K:club: 9:heart: 9:club:
Hero raises to 3 BB, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero calls 6 BB
Table broke and we were left HU. This player has a habit that his postflop is almost always pot, and if he bets flop and gets called he barrels turn and river very often. Which makes HU with him quite variance heavy. 200bb deep IP with this guy, not folding almost anything to 3bet.
Flop: (18 BB, 2 players) T:heart: J:spade: Q:heart:
BB bets 18 BB, Hero calls 18 BB
He makes a quick pot, and I was pondering between call and raise. He would get it in with almost any hit, as his stack off ranges are wider than they should be. He overplays sets, 2 pairs, naked flushdraws etc. With calling there will be a problem that when he pots the turn, what am I going to do it it's not blank (which is over half of the deck).
Turn: (54 BB, 2 players) T:spade:
BB bets 54 BB, Hero calls 54 BB
The pot comes in, as expected. Can't fold, but the hand is not that fun anymore. And my feeling was "how did I get to this spot?". Still not sure what would be the best play on the flop: raise-get it in, call down on any board, call and fold to scare cards? The last one is the worst though.
River: (162 BB, 2 players) 3:spade:
BB bets 162 BB, Hero calls 125 BB
I hate the river, as he does have bdfd's in his range for sure. But he made it very quickly, which made the call a lot easier. His hand is definitely NOT in his normal 3bet range, and postflop normally he is very valueheavy. Haven't seen almost any bluffs from him, except when he is tilting. Like here.
BB shows K:diamond: 7:club: 7:spade: 4:diamond: (Two Pair, Tens and Sevens)
(Pre 30%, Flop 2%, Turn 5%)
Hero shows 5:club: K:club: 9:heart: 9:club: (Straight, King High)
(Pre 70%, Flop 98%, Turn 95%)
Hero wins 402 BB
I think this qualifies as a bad beat:
Spoiler
SB: 60 BB (VPIP: 59.54, PFR: 16.49, 3Bet Preflop: 2.92, Hands: 1,473)
BB: 377.2 BB (VPIP: 58.26, PFR: 25.22, 3Bet Preflop: 13.64, Hands: 117)
UTG: 24.8 BB (VPIP: 75.00, PFR: 16.07, 3Bet Preflop: 3.51, Hands: 112)
CO: 33.4 BB (VPIP: 67.79, PFR: 9.11, 3Bet Preflop: 2.06, Hands: 596)
Hero (BTN): 126.8 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 7:spade: 5:diamond: A:heart: 3:spade:
UTG calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 4.4 BB, SB calls 4 BB, BB raises to 18.6 BB, fold, Hero calls 14.2 BB, SB calls 14.2 BB
Open seems silly, but in this table versus these guys I open most of the buttons. The only player who has any kind of aggression is BB, but the sample size is still a bit small to make further assumptions. He might be aggro, I have seen him being aggro on the flop when everyone checks. Now the worst thing happens, he 3bets and we go to flop.
Flop: (56.8 BB, 3 players) 2:spade: 4:heart: A:spade:
SB checks, BB bets 56.8 BB, Hero raises to 108.2 BB, fold, BB calls 51.4 BB
Gin!
And his hand was a bit surprising, although I can see some logic behind it. I get it in with 93% equity.
Turn: (273.2 BB, 2 players) J:diamond:
River: (273.2 BB, 2 players) 5:club:
Players agreed to run it twice.
Turn #2: (273.2 BB, 2 players) 8:club:
River #2: (273.2 BB, 2 players) 5:heart:
He spikes two of the remaining three 5´s to split both runs.
BB shows K:diamond: 3:diamond: Q:club: 4:club: (Straight, Five High)
Board #1 (Pre 51%, Flop 7%, Turn 10%)
(Straight, Five High)
Board #2 (Pre 49%, Flop 6%, Turn 1%)
Hero shows 7:spade: 5:diamond: A:heart: 3:spade: (Straight, Five High)
Board #1 (Pre 49%, Flop 93%, Turn 90%)
(Straight, Five High)
Board #2 (Pre 51%, Flop 94%, Turn 99%)
BB wins 66 BB
BB wins 66.2 BB
Hero wins 66 BB
Hero wins 66 BB