[NL2-NL10] AJ steal missed flop

    • SaDeOnE
      SaDeOnE
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2009 Posts: 109
      $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
      PokerStars
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG Jarrrec ($12.39)
      UTG+1 grishok3002 ($5.15)
      CO Hero ($4.73)
      BTN inanel ($7.03)
      SB appeltje1956 ($8.50)
      BB Lakratti ($4.65)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is CO A :spade: J :club:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, appeltje1956 calls $0.65, 1 fold

      Flop: 6 :spade: 6 :club: 2 :diamond: ($1.75, 2 players)
      appeltje1956 checks, Hero bets $1.40, appeltje1956 raises to $4.25, Hero goes all-in $2.58

      Turn: K :spade: ($9.98, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      River: 8 :spade: ($9.98, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      Final Pot: $9.98
      Hero shows A :spade: J :club:
      appeltje1956 shows two pair, Nines and Sixes 9 :diamond: 9 :heart:
      appeltje1956 wins $9.50 (net +$4.50)
      Hero lost $4.73




      After some hesitation SB only calls so i thought he had some medium weak hand.
      small flop came, he checks, so i thought he missed the flop i and made a cbet, he thought a while and made a raise...

      I was thinking he made his set, but he wouldn't call with 22, 6+ some kind of trashy hand? nope.

      chek raise with overcards... it would be a sick a bluff, i would believe in that move if he had stats like 13/13 but he has some gay stats, so the only hand he could have is some small pocket pair, which is higher that the flop.

      I still had my 9 outs, and a half of my stack was already in the pot, so i made a call
  • 3 replies
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey SaDeOne,

      I believe all PPs can be very well in his range including 22 and 56s/67s as well. Don't see a reason why exclude those hands, but the truth is 22 and 6xs are less likely since it would mean he has hit trips or FH which both have small chances.

      I'd like to ask where do you find 9 outs here? In my opinion you can count at most with 6 here which isn't enough to go broke here presuming he doesn't bluff with overcards or some sick gutshots like 34/45 which isn't very likely from your thoughts either as I understood.

      One more thing, the board is dry as pepper thus c-betting 1$ should do the trick and it makes it easier to fold against the check/raise.

      Regards,
      burek2000
    • SaDeOnE
      SaDeOnE
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2009 Posts: 109
      about 9 outs :D :D when i had dinner i realised, that i had 6 outs, not 9 :D facepalm...

      so yeah... bad call, i shud have folded there
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      you got 9 outs with 33 -TT excluding 66 of course, and he could have slow played JJ+ pre or even AQ+ is also a possibility. I don't see a call here. If you feel you are pot comited by your bet you should have bet AI to maximise your fold equity.