HUSNG Bankroll Management

    • Salivanth
      Salivanth
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.01.2011 Posts: 587
      So I've started to get into heads-up, and it's a lot faster (and therefore I presume, swingier) than 9-man SNG's. I really like heads-up, but I also want to practice good BRM. Therefore, what bankroll would be recommended before moving up to 2-dollar HUSNG's? I figure it'd be more than 100, which I think is what's recommended for 2 dollar SNG's on the site, but not sure by how much.

      Thanks for any help!
  • 14 replies
    • moovet
      moovet
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.01.2009 Posts: 157
      just because its faster doesn mean its more variance lol

      husngs are the lowest variance sng's

      for 2s you need 15-20 buyins (bout 40$)
      for 5s use 20-25
      for 10s use 25
      ...

      higher you go, more buyins you need

      btw. more players = more variance
      so naturaly 2 players are lowest variance you can get
    • Salivanth
      Salivanth
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.01.2011 Posts: 587
      Good point: After all, MTT's have the most variance. I shall try the 2's then, see how I go. Cheers!
    • pzhon
      pzhon
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      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      The sizes of the downswings you will see depend on both the mathematical variance per tournament (low for HUSNGs) and your skill advantage. We can't guess your skill advantage. If you are a break-even player, you will see arbitrarily large swings in both directions. If you are a marginal winner, you will see much larger downswings and much longer break-even stretches than a solid winner. No fixed number of buy-ins will make everyone safe.

      A consistent guideline you can use to compare bankrolls between types of tournaments is as follows:

      bankroll = comfort x (standard deviation^2)/win rate

      The standard deviation of a 9-player SNG is about 1.55 buy-ins. For DoN or HUSNGs, the standard deviation is about 0.95 buy-ins.

      For example, suppose you choose an aggressive target comfort level of 2. Suppose your ROI in both 9-player and HU SNGs is 5%. The recommended bankroll for 9-player SNGs would be 2 (1.55)^2/0.05 ~ 96 buy-ins. The analogous bankroll for HU SNGs would be 2 (0.95)^2 / 0.05 ~ 36 buy-ins.
    • Econom1sta
      Econom1sta
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 130
      Today strange thing happened to me, I won ten 10$ hu super turbo sng's in a row. I knew I'm good at them, but I never played them for profit, rather to boost my bankroll after losing some $ on mtt's. My bankroll was 100$ and now is doubled. So do you have any advice or suggestion for me?

      Brag image :f_cool: :

    • Leito99
      Leito99
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2009 Posts: 754
      Originally posted by Econom1sta
      Today strange thing happened to me, I won ten 10$ hu super turbo sng's in a row. I knew I'm good at them, but I never played them for profit, rather to boost my bankroll after losing some $ on mtt's. My bankroll was 100$ and now is doubled. So do you have any advice or suggestion for me?

      Brag image :f_cool: :

      i won 10 flips in a row before too :tongue:
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      I don't recommend playing super turbo HU tournaments with 10-20 buy-ins in your bankroll. You may be overestimating your edge.
    • LRush
      LRush
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.03.2008 Posts: 341
      Originally posted by pzhon
      The sizes of the downswings you will see depend on both the mathematical variance per tournament (low for HUSNGs) and your skill advantage. We can't guess your skill advantage. If you are a break-even player, you will see arbitrarily large swings in both directions. If you are a marginal winner, you will see much larger downswings and much longer break-even stretches than a solid winner. No fixed number of buy-ins will make everyone safe.

      A consistent guideline you can use to compare bankrolls between types of tournaments is as follows:

      bankroll = comfort x (standard deviation^2)/win rate

      The standard deviation of a 9-player SNG is about 1.55 buy-ins. For DoN or HUSNGs, the standard deviation is about 0.95 buy-ins.

      For example, suppose you choose an aggressive target comfort level of 2. Suppose your ROI in both 9-player and HU SNGs is 5%. The recommended bankroll for 9-player SNGs would be 2 (1.55)^2/0.05 ~ 96 buy-ins. The analogous bankroll for HU SNGs would be 2 (0.95)^2 / 0.05 ~ 36 buy-ins.
      hey pzhon, i had statistic, so i know (standard deviation^2) is variance but how do you calculae and use that value in poker?
    • conall88
      conall88
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      HUSNG.com has a BRM calc specifically for HUSNGs. you need to be logged in to use it, but its a neat tool. you can even generate graphs based on your edge and sample size etc and see what you could expect.

      for me rule of thumb would be to double the depth of your bankroll as your attainable ROI% halves.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Originally posted by LRush
      Originally posted by pzhon
      bankroll = comfort x (standard deviation^2)/win rate

      The standard deviation of a 9-player SNG is about 1.55 buy-ins. For DoN or HUSNGs, the standard deviation is about 0.95 buy-ins.

      For example, suppose you choose an aggressive target comfort level of 2. Suppose your ROI in both 9-player and HU SNGs is 5%. The recommended bankroll for 9-player SNGs would be 2 (1.55)^2/0.05 ~ 96 buy-ins. The analogous bankroll for HU SNGs would be 2 (0.95)^2 / 0.05 ~ 36 buy-ins.
      hey pzhon, i had statistic, so i know (standard deviation^2) is variance but how do you calculae and use that value in poker?
      You quoted where I showed how to use the value for bankroll calculations. Please clarify what else you would like to know.
    • LRush
      LRush
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      Joined: 23.03.2008 Posts: 341
      how you got to the standart deviation value and where do you use it besides calculating brm for sngs hu
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      One meaning of the standard deviation of a gamble is that it is about as risky as a fair coin-flip for the standard deviation. A HU SNG is very close to a fair coin-flip for the entry fee (which is a little less than the buy-in, differing by the rake). The standard deviation does not change much if you win 45% or 60% instead of 50%.

      If you want to calculate the standard deviation from past data, one method is to calculate the following:

      A = average result
      B = average square of result
      Variance = B - A^2
      Standard Deviation = sqrt(Variance)

      I have done that calculation for SNGs with 6, 9, and 180 players in past threads.

      There is no time you need to use the standard deviation at the table. However, it shows up when you are analyzing your results. For example, a rough 95% confidence interval for your ROI after n tournaments is about your observed ROI +- 2 standard deviations/sqrt(n). If you are playing HU SNGs with a standard deviation of 0.95 buy-ins, and you have played 100 tournaments, that would be your observed ROI +- 190%/sqrt(100) = observed ROI +- 19%. That tells you about how well you can pin down your ROI after playing 100 tournaments.
    • 28renton
      28renton
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 45
      Hey Pzhon,

      Does the Standard Deviation of 0.95 buy-ins apply to Limit HU SnGs too? Or would the SD be even less?

      EDIT: Also, in your video for Rational Bankroll Management, u mention a comfort of 2 is an approximate 2% RoR. What's the approximate RoR using a comfort of 3?
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      The standard deviation of 0.95 buy-ins for HU SNGs applies to limit, NL, and DoN tournaments.

      Your instantaneous risk of ruin is your ROR assuming that the games don't change and you never withdraw or change stakes or tilt. It is about e^(-2 * comfort) ~ 1/7^comfort. So, a comfort level of 2 gives you an instantaneous risk of ruin of about 1/49 ~ 2%. A comfort level of 3 gives you an instantaneous risk of ruin of about 0.3%. A comfort level of 4 gives 0.04%.
    • 28renton
      28renton
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 45
      Hey Pzhon,

      How would somebody use your formula of:

      Marginal Comfort = Bankroll x (WR2 – WR1) / (SD2^2 – SD1^2)

      when playing HU SnGs to determine when to move up? The standard deviation between one level and another is the same, right? For example, $5 and $10 HU SnGs would both have an SD of .95. So (SD2^2 - SD1^2) would end up being zero. How would the rest of the calculation work then?