Video Discussion - Matusow: Nit or Genius?

    • DanielUK
      DanielUK
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      Joined: 08.11.2010 Posts: 91
      It's the World Series Main Event and you flop a queen-high flush early on Day 1, your opponent 3-bet jams for your tournament life, what do you do? Well if you're Matusow you fold, but what do you think? Discuss inside.

  • 21 replies
    • Andyuk18
      Andyuk18
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      Joined: 06.12.2010 Posts: 527
      Bad fold! I don't know how many hands they played together but i would guess nowhere near enough of a sample to assume that Johnson is a ultra mega tight player. Nut flush draw is in his range, weaker hands such as sets, or even a smaller flush than Q high.

      I don't think Matusow was 100% certain like he claimed to be at the end. The fear of being busted early played a huge role in his fold, if it was a cash game he would call everytime.
    • dubadal
      dubadal
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      Joined: 05.09.2008 Posts: 263
      the other guy said: "I either bust Mike Matusow or get busted by Mike Matusow", so he's sorta telling that he has A :spade: and needs to draw.
    • AleksandarPPA
      AleksandarPPA
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      Joined: 26.07.2010 Posts: 136
      I gotta admit if my tourney depended on this i would not go for it if my opponent shoves like that he has monster A flush draw or set 999 or some other shit .... and blinds were too small ? and its too early ?? dunno :f_confused: :f_confused: :f_confused: :f_o:
    • JerichoGW
      JerichoGW
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      Joined: 09.11.2010 Posts: 2
      I agree that it was a bad fold unless he was really sure that the guy was playing super-tight. But even then, he probably wouldn't shove there with the Nuts... The Pot is 22,200 and he has to call 16,300, so the Odds are about 1.36:1. So Matusow would have to be at least a ~57.5:42.5 to win the hand. If he puts him on any made flush, any Hand with the Ace of spades, any set, KK and TT with a spade and maybe K9 with K of spades, Matusow would be a 65:35 favorite to win (about 1.86:1). Even without K9,TT,KK he'd still be 1.7:1 favorite. So to me, that's a bad fold...
    • z1pz0r
      z1pz0r
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      Joined: 12.08.2009 Posts: 981
      Originally posted by Andyuk18
      if it was a cash game he would call everytime.
      in limped pot such as this one and against reg -> fold all the way
    • JerichoGW
      JerichoGW
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      Joined: 09.11.2010 Posts: 2
      But would he really shove a hand that has Matusow beat? You also can't assume that the guy is a reg because it's early in the Main Event...
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
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      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      He still has a little over 50BB left behind. and only risked about 8 so far.


      Now the question is.

      Would he overbet shove with a K or A made flush? Why not just reraise? The only reason to reraise is if you don't put your opponent on a flush draw. since you will likely chase them out of the pot. And your basicaly helping them get all the money in while they think they're still ahead with their 2pair/set/etc. So it doesn't make sense for him to overbet shove there.. unless he put Mike on a set which he thinks he will laydown since he's horribly behind against a set.

      I like Mike's reraise. but i'm not too sure about folding.. it's for his tournament life, he still has plenty chips left behind. Johnson actualy has a 28.8% to win (according to pokerstove + other calculator) So that does change it a bit imo. vs a set he's a 2 to 1 favorite. he basicaly crushes all other hands badly. exept ofcourse a made K/A flush.


      Taking all that into account:
      I just dont see a hand he could put Mike on that he'd be overbet shoving the flop with for value. He's behind against 2pair, sets and made flushes. If he tries to make mike fold 2pair, sets and maybe some bluffs why not just make a normal big reraise which imo looks stronger. Unless he assumed Mike would fold a made flush but that's very unlikely.

      So i personally hate the other guy's all in shove. Mike's fold.. i wouldn't lay it down personally.. he's basically a 2 to 1 or bigger favorite exept again higher made flushes.. and considering it's unlikely he'd shove all in there with an A/K flush since there isn't any reason to do so with. And even more unlikely he actualy has that. i think calling is really alot better then folding.


      Not sure why i wrote so much.. I was actually going to defend Mike a little to let you guys see it from a different perspective. But after really thinking about i think folding is pretty bad here. However if the guy had the AK of spades i think the comments would have been alot different. then you'd probably see "yeah very good laydown. But it was vs tightest player of the table. so i could see the reason why he did". or the standard "easy laydown".
    • bradomurder
      bradomurder
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      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,329
      Well it's because we now know that AsX is in his range that we know it is a bad fold.

      In the <$25 tournies I play it's a very easy call and without serious backround and reads I think in any tourny it is. Guess he must've had serious reads, that were wrong
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
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      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      It's a supereasy call - even if Johnson comes up with A or K high flush, Matusow still has ~37% chance to make runner runner straight flush.

      And if seriously:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 50.542% 50.54% 00.00% 9507 0.00 { QsJs }
      Hand 1: 49.458% 49.46% 00.00% 9303 0.00 { 99, 66, 33, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsTs, Ts8s, 8s7s, 7s5s, 5s4s }

      It's pretty much of gambling, and that's probably why Matusow laid it down. However I would call, since I'm a gambler fish, and that's just the flop I'd be waiting for.
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
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      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      It's a supereasy call - even if Johnson comes up with A or K high flush, Matusow still has ~37% chance to make runner runner straight flush.


      Not sure where you get your numbers from but this is very wrong. He's basically drawing dead vs an A or k high flush. He only has an 0.2% to win if he did have it. In which case he'd have to hit 10 or 8 of spades on the turn and the other on the river. Not to mention if anyone on the table holds either of those he has 0% chance to win.
    • ZeMammuth
      ZeMammuth
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 704
      lol worse fold ever..No way in hell the guy is shoving a flopped a high flush, he would most likely slow play. And remember since mike has the flush, thats 2 less outs, so if the guy has an ace high flush draw u should always call...Yes its early in the tournament, but there is a huge fields and ur not gonna get many spots like these that u get your money in as big of a favourite...You gonna play an mtt? You gotta gamble. Get in there.
    • alejandrosh
      alejandrosh
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      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      nit, still he has to give a speech and show his cards. I hate live players with passion
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
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      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      It's a supereasy call - even if Johnson comes up with A or K high flush, Matusow still has ~37% chance to make runner runner straight flush.


      Not sure where you get your numbers from but this is very wrong. He's basically drawing dead vs an A or k high flush. He only has an 0.2% to win if he did have it. In which case he'd have to hit 10 or 8 of spades on the turn and the other on the river. Not to mention if anyone on the table holds either of those he has 0% chance to win.
      Oh I get those numbers from a software "Poker Cunt". Very rare soft, you probably never heard of it.
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
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      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      It's a supereasy call - even if Johnson comes up with A or K high flush, Matusow still has ~37% chance to make runner runner straight flush.


      Not sure where you get your numbers from but this is very wrong. He's basically drawing dead vs an A or k high flush. He only has an 0.2% to win if he did have it. In which case he'd have to hit 10 or 8 of spades on the turn and the other on the river. Not to mention if anyone on the table holds either of those he has 0% chance to win.
      Oh I get those numbers from a software "Poker Cunt". Very rare soft, you probably never heard of it.
      It's sad you can't get over the past. Why is it so hard to respond in a civil manner when you've made a mistake?





      On a more interesting note:

      When you go to the news page and find this article almost everyone is saying it's a good laydown.. the complete opposite of here.. i find that pretty funny tbh.

      link: http://www.pokerstrategy.com/news/content/Video-Discussion-Can-you-be-this-Nitty-_44131/
    • Alficor1
      Alficor1
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      Joined: 16.06.2010 Posts: 7,291
      I'd call, i'm not folding queen hi flush on the flop in a donkament.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
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      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Is this the same Matusow that jumped out of his chair when a guy folded Jacks full on the river? Doesn't look like it to me... :f_mad:
    • ZeMammuth
      ZeMammuth
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 704
      dont fold it anywhere mate.

      If you guys think this is a good fold then you guys should agree that folding aa pre to an ai is a good fold also because its too early!, numbers arent that much different.
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
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      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      It's a supereasy call - even if Johnson comes up with A or K high flush, Matusow still has ~37% chance to make runner runner straight flush.


      Not sure where you get your numbers from but this is very wrong. He's basically drawing dead vs an A or k high flush. He only has an 0.2% to win if he did have it. In which case he'd have to hit 10 or 8 of spades on the turn and the other on the river. Not to mention if anyone on the table holds either of those he has 0% chance to win.
      Oh I get those numbers from a software "Poker Cunt". Very rare soft, you probably never heard of it.
      It's sad you can't get over the past. Why is it so hard to respond in a civil manner when you've made a mistake?

      What past? I would answer pretty much the same to every donkey who takes my words that it's 37% chance to hit runner runner str8flush as a serious statement.
      You make my day with your posts everytime... :f_biggrin:
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
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      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      It's a supereasy call - even if Johnson comes up with A or K high flush, Matusow still has ~37% chance to make runner runner straight flush.


      Not sure where you get your numbers from but this is very wrong. He's basically drawing dead vs an A or k high flush. He only has an 0.2% to win if he did have it. In which case he'd have to hit 10 or 8 of spades on the turn and the other on the river. Not to mention if anyone on the table holds either of those he has 0% chance to win.
      Oh I get those numbers from a software "Poker Cunt". Very rare soft, you probably never heard of it.
      It's sad you can't get over the past. Why is it so hard to respond in a civil manner when you've made a mistake?

      What past? I would answer pretty much the same to every donkey who takes my words that it's 37% chance to hit runner runner str8flush as a serious statement.
      You make my day with your posts everytime... :f_biggrin:


      Oh i forgot.. making dumb posts just to troll people is considered funny these days. Most of the "leveling" trolls have thankfully stayed on 2p2 so far though. Cause i simply don't see what's so funny about it.
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