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[Closed] almost any two spot on the bubble

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Poker Stars $15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200.00/t400.00 Blinds - 4 players

SB: t3935.00 9.84 BBs
BB: t2745.00 6.86 BBs
CO: t3425.00 8.56 BBs
Hero (BTN): t3395.00 8.49 BBs

Pre Flop: (t600) Hero is BTN with 9 :diamond: 8 :heart:
1 fold, Hero raises to t3370, 1 fold, BB calls t2345 all in

My thinking here was that on the bubble blinds should be calling me with only top 10%. Would you agree with this line abusing the bubble this way (I would push here something like 80%) or is it too risky approach?


3 replies

In the Nash equilibrium, after you push, the SB calls 5.4% while the BB calls 8.7%. Nevertheless, given these ranges, your exploitive pushing range is 38.8% and does not include 98o.

The cost of getting called is high, particularly when you are called by the SB who covers you. Stealing the blinds over 85% of the time doesn't make up for getting your money in very badly the last 15%. You need more equity when you are called.

When you push, you prevent the blinds from colliding with each other, which they do 22% of the time in the Nash equilibrium. In practice the blinds might not to collide as often as in the Nash equilibrium. So, you might push a little wider than the Nash pushing range even if the blinds use the Nash calling ranges against your pushes since folding is not worth as much when the blinds rarely collide.

There are times to push ATC from the button on the bubble. However, the Nash ATC button pushes tend to occur when you cover the blinds by a significant amount so that you are not risk-averse against the blinds while they are more risk-averse against you. It helps if the CO is a short stack, but that alone is not enough since it also increases your risk-aversion. It is far more commonly correct to push ATC from the small blind.


Here is a link to the Nash equilibrium for this situation.


Seems too loose to push this wide after all.
And you´re right, blinds will not collide that often as Nash expects, but still by this shove I´m enabling them, so that´s another point for not shoving here.

Thank you for detailed answer.