[NL20-NL50] [Nl25 Sh] 66

    • DoigteurFou
      DoigteurFou
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.08.2007 Posts: 1,528
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $26,4
      BU:
      $32,49

      0,1/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (4 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant.Base 0.96 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 6:heart: , 6:diamond:
      CO folds, BU raises to $0,75, SB folds, Hero calls $0,50.

      Flop: ($1,60) 5:diamond: , 4:diamond: , 4:club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $1, Hero raises to $3,00, BU raises to $7,87, Hero calls $4,87.

      Turn: ($17,34) 5:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $8,25, BU folds.

      Final Pot: $25,59

      Quite an unusual play I guess, was just wondering about what you would tell me about it :)
      Villain is a regular, and knows I'm quite a aggressive player, knows my ranges in such situations are wide. Not that I defend my BB too often, but I like to defend it with marginal hands at times to mix it up. He is also capable of good laying downs.
      My preflop play is standard I guess. Maybe 3betting is possible as well, however I did 3bet a lot during the few former hands (not against him though), so I discarded the light aggressive version.

      To me, his range is mostly pocket pairs, broadways, and some SC. Therefore he missed the board most of the time. His Cbet% is >75% so I opt for a check/raise. I turn my hand into a bluff and accept it since it will be very hard to play OOP for me if any diamond or overcard comes after.
      His small 3bet was quite strange to me. However I often fold to them when I have a medium hand and he knows that. As he knows I fold the hands he would value on, there is no point betting small for value here. His reraises are 3/4 pot to potsize generally. The most logical thing to me was that he had hands like 22-44 and 77-AA here, maybe sometimes a broadway bluff, or 44/55. To me this sizing was aimed at getting good odds for his bluff. To me again, this is never a draw since I like to reraise small bets (and assumed he noticed that)

      Here is now the fun part: I chose to use those odds to represent a wide part of my range. I would simply call with a 4 or 5 to keep him in the hand, as well as with draws since he "shows" strengh. The turn cards hitting my range and letting him think his overpair is not good anymore are the diamonds, 8, A, and 5. This is 18 outs. I also have two 6 remaining. I though having 4:1 to draw my bluffs were way enough, so I called.

      The turn is easy: I hit the 5. I chose to donk instead of check/raising for the simple reason that if he bets he will be committed. I use my typical halfpot valuebet in big pots

      Looking at it again, I like my line. When I hit my card on the turn I used 8.25+4.87 = 13€ to win 12€ roughly, so my turn bluff did not had to work too often (around 55% of the time I suppose).

      What do you guys think? Am I just a maniac hiding himself behind strange reasonings? Maybe just a tilt because of the 20buy-ins lost in the last 5 days (mostly due to variance, I lost around 2 buyins to tilt in this serie)

      Thank you :)
  • 7 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      What do you guys think? Am I just a maniac hiding himself behind strange reasonings?
      I think BU has there mostly random air, although by betting turn he may also fold his overpairs, so I like that play.
      Either way you can´t really c/r flop and then fold to 3-bet, since his range is just too wide and you hold quite strong hand
      If you bet turn you likely have to b/c, since I don´t see 4x or overpairs shoving there and 5x would likely not 3-bet flop
    • DoigteurFou
      DoigteurFou
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.08.2007 Posts: 1,528
      There was a mistake in my line, since I was about to fold to a turn reraise.

      Still have to make some progress I think :D
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by DoigteurFou
      There was a mistake in my line, since I was about to fold to a turn reraise.

      Still have to make some progress I think :D
      well maybe b/f turn is the correct play, since don´t see players also shove there draws, since you´re reping boat. So if you get shoved then it is really quite rare spot, so I would likely call to just get information + I get really good pot odds.
    • DoigteurFou
      DoigteurFou
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.08.2007 Posts: 1,528
      that makes sense
      Thank you
    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      I think this is a spew. Even thought I like the analysis of the hand and the way you thought about the hand.


      If you call 66 preflop and you know that you don't have implied odds, due to the large/weak villains range, you have to bluff postflop to make it profitable.

      But how often will you get away with it? You can also play good by folding if 3beting will get a 4bet out of villain (and a call to a 5bet shove).


      On the turn you only have @pot size stack. With what would you call the 3bet and bet the 5 turn, instead of checking to aggressor? With quads I'd say never, with JJ you would shove on the flop, with a 4 or a 5 you would let villain bet and if he would check behind you would bet the river for value (balanced range with your bluffs, because villain showed weakness by checking behind).


      About the call flop to bluff turn if diamond or overcard hits:
      The turn cards hitting my range and letting him think his overpair is not good anymore are the diamonds, 8, A, and 5. This is 18 outs. I also have two 6 remaining. I though having 4:1 to draw my bluffs were way enough, so I called.
      You have A, 8, diamonds and 6 as good cards for the turn, that's 17 outs (4 aces, 4 eights, 2 sixes, 6 diamonds [A, 8, 6 not included])

      - With this play you risk $13.2 to win $11.84 (rake was taken) when a bluffing card comes. So in 37% of the time you have to win 54% of the time for the bluff to be profitable. (This doesn't include the money you lose by calling to make the play, the point below. Because it's not a one street/move bluff, like overbet $13.2 to win $11.84, you will not get the chance every time to put in all the $13.2)

      - In the other 63% of the time you lose $4.87.

      And if you call the raise on the turn you get ~17% pot odds for the call, but villain will probably never bluff there for so little (he has no FE). So, imo, with after that bet you lose another 8$ every time you your bluff doesn't work b/e villain has a hand.

      - The play - In 100 scenarios, you lose 63 times $4.87 = $306.8 and you win 37 times $11.84 = $438. That would make it a profitable play, with $132 profit in 100 hands = $1.32 per hand/exact scenario. This is if your bluff will always work, when a bluffing card comes, which will not.

      If it will work in only 75% of the time (the bluff) then you lose $306.8 and 9* $8.25 = $74.25 ) = $381 loss; and you win 28 * $11.84 = $331.5 ... which ultimately will bring a loss for every case. The bluff has to work at least 80% of the time to make it profitable.


      And in 292 hands you barely get to know a players game (if he's a reg), not enough to make a play like this.


      PS: I didn't include the times you make the boat and get payed, but I think that if you will call the raise on the turn, it will equal out (because as I said, I don't think villain ever bluffs there).
    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      Another thing, if you think that villain won't fold to a c/r then don't do it as a bluff.

      ----
      I didn't put 5 as a bluffing card because if you put 5, because villain could have 3beted broadway, then a 2, 3, 7, 8 and 9 are good bluffing cards on the turn along with the 5. And if you think broadway is a big part of his range, then shoving is best and not letting him see the turn for free and then to be able to get you off your hand when a scare card comes (K).

      And donking the turn doesn't make much sense when a diamond doesn't come and low card comes, because if you have a boat then you are not scared of villain making a flush, which you know he doesn't have anyways (and he may know that you know, because of the 3bet).
    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      Summary:

      - The play will bring variance with a likely loss longterm.
      - On the flop on this board, don't C/R if you think you have little FoldEquity.
      - If you don't have implied odds or you know that villains isn't very weak and fold easily, don't call preflop. Fold or 3bet.
      - You make money from fish, not from regs. So better focus on them.