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[NL20-NL50] SH NL50 QJ straight on bad river card

    • tcs35
      tcs35
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.01.2009 Posts: 3,583
      Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1392070

      SB: $33.95 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 4, 3B: 0, AF: 3.5, Hands: 200
      BB: $50.75 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 26, 3B: 23, AF: 2.0, Hands: 117
      UTG: $42.00 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 18
      Hero (MP): $57.70 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 21, 3B: 5, AF: 2.7, Hands: 41745
      CO: $50.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 5, AF: 2.7, Hands: 140
      BTN: $24.95 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 15

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with Q :spade: J :diamond:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold

      Flop: ($4.50) K :spade: T :club: J :club: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $3.00, SB calls $3

      Turn: ($10.50) A :heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $6.50, SB calls $6.50

      River: ($23.50) K :heart: (2 players)
      SB bets $22.45, Hero folds
  • 3 replies
    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      That's a disciplined fold.
      Did you think he had JJ, TT, KT, KJ, AK?

      My guess is that this is a split or a badly played K9. But the hands above are also possible.



      Board: K:spade: T:club: J:club:  A:heart:  K:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    25.68%   5.39%  20.29% { QsJd }
      MP3    74.32%  54.03%  20.29% { JJ-TT, AQs+, K9s+, AQo+, KTo+ }


      With this range we don't have a profitable call.


      We mostly go for a split, but we sometimes lose to a boat and we win rarely - this makes the fold good (even if we cut some hands that beat us from villains range)
    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755

      Board: K:spade: T:club: J:club:  A:heart:  K:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    34.09%   0.00%  34.09% { QsJd }
      MP3    65.91%  31.82%  34.09% { AQs+, KTs+, AQo+, KQo }



      Against this optimistic range we have 34% equity and if this would have been for a win, it would have been a break even call, but the equity is for a split - the conclusion, we are crushed.


      Well played =)
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      only hand that you´re likely behind is AK
      I think he would likely c/r two pair+ on the flop, so I don´t really give him KT/KJ/TT/JJ. He may have there Qx, but he may also shove you missed flushdraw, since board is very scary if you have there only Ax, like AT/AJ

      consider all that you shouldn´t fold KQ