[NL2-NL10] set on river facing min raise

    • hackbinder
      hackbinder
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2009 Posts: 618
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.01/$0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      BB:
      $2.26
      MP2 (Hero):
      $2.00
      MP3:
      $2.00
      CO:
      $2.18
      BU:
      $5.51
      SB:
      $3.45


      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T, T.
      Hero raises to $0.08, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.08, BU calls $0.08, SB folds, BB calls $0.06.

      Flop: ($0.33) 5, 3, 9 (4 players)
      BB bets $0.04, Hero raises to $0.24, CO folds, BU folds, BB calls $0.20.

      Turn: ($0.81) 4 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.30.

      River: ($1.41) T (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.67, BB raises to $1.34.

      Final Pot: $3.42.



      I have to call this, right?

      Also, I think I should have bet more on the turn.
  • 8 replies
    • HansTheGreat
      HansTheGreat
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,807
      On the flop raise pot size for protection obviously. On the turn you have to bet stronger. This is simply just to weak. You are giving him just great odds. A bet of ~0,65 is must as you played. If you played for protection on the flop as I suggested you would on the turn an easy spot because the pot would be 1.15 and you have 1.5 left so you can shove or just go for a raise that pot commits you on the river. I like more shoving. It makes thing easier and does not make hard feelings. On the river as played your call to break even needs 16,38% of equity and if do give him this kind of range:
      FONT=courier new]
      Board: 5:diamond: 3:diamond: 9:spade: 4:club: T:diamond:
      Equity Win Tie
      UTG 12.76% 12.76% 0.00% { TT-33, A9s, A5s-A3s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 95s+, 76s, 64s+, 53s+, A9o, A4o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 95o+, 76o, 64o+, 54o }
      UTG+1 87.24% 87.24% 0.00% { TsTc }
      [/FONT]

      So regarding the odds your call is here a must I think. Because only a flush beat you and a some straights. But he could also play like this in any if had a set on the flop. So I would conclude that you anyway got it all in and that scenario I would call the river raise because of the odds. Maybe I would made a smaller thin value bet on the river something like 0,40. Just to left more fold equity.
    • esuohdla
      esuohdla
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.05.2011 Posts: 411
      I dont mind the flop bet. A potsize raise would be 0.45, so do you realistically think he is calling that with worse than an overpair? Your kinda ensuring that you will face gutshot+flushdraw or sets, unless he is capable of calling pre with some garbage type hand that made a two pair/straight. Turn id bet .65/.70 depending on the player im against. If you bet like this, your shoving that river card and you avoid the awkward and tricky situation you just put yourself in.

      Also I think your range for the villain is much too weak. He is CRAIing the river, normally a big sign of strength or a busted draw type hand, except most draws I put him on just made it. Id range him at: 99,55,33,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad5d,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,Td9d,9d8d

      As played, I think you have about 50% equity there, more if you believe him to be capable of bluffing that river, less if he has a high VPIP, due to playing garbage suited hands. Im always calling that due to the dead money in the pot.
    • HansTheGreat
      HansTheGreat
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,807
      Pot size would be 0,41 exactly. Do you know what kind of player he is?No, without that I go for protection and that s about pot size here(if he would be a nit or a rock I would call but this way no). So if he is on any draw your still ahead. Your only behind sets. Overpair like JJ+ I think we can pretty much exclude so I think we have a fair chance to say that we can comfortable protect here.

      You have to consider that he got great odds preflop(almost 5:1) to call with garbage, suited connectors and so on. Regarding this fact and the fact that we dont know him I think my range stands and yours is a little bit to tight and takes only TAGs into consideration.
    • esuohdla
      esuohdla
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.05.2011 Posts: 411
      Originally posted by Sikac
      Do you know what kind of player he is?No,
      Hence why we put his range tight and less shit, since we are treating him as a rationally thinking player. We must treat unknowns as this to stop ourselves getting valueowned by players we incorrectly labeled as fish, without having evidence such as reads/stats to do so. Since an average rationally thinking player would fold most stuff we beat to a potsize raise, we must take that into account before acting. With more data a potsize raise could well be optimal, but thats a luxury we dont have here.

      And you honestly think hands like A4o, with nothing but 4th pair, or A9o, with only second pair, are going to CR that river card? Perhaps from a maniac sure, but again we cant assume he is one without evidence to back it up, a rationally thinking player just doesnt really make those kind of moves on a board like that.

      Also your range for suited hands is incorrect in my opinion, your including hands like Q9s, a possible assumption, but he is hardly going to make that move with Qc9c, more like Qd9d only.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello hackbinder,

      Flop: Well, if you planning to raise the flop then I'd still make it bigger. Which would be near the pot and usually I just take the min-bet as add-on into the pot, which would be ~$0,37 and my bet into that would be ~$0,30.

      As played
      Turn: Why do you make so small bet here? We have to protect our hand, ~$0,60 at least.

      As played
      River: Well, I wouldn't say we have to Call. I mean what kind of hands do you think he ever raises here while just a FD completes. He could easily just play more aggressively any 2pairs/sets earlier and protect his hand. Most likely it will be towards lost hand here and you can even consider Bet/Folding while you made such a block-bet.

      Best Regards.
    • HansTheGreat
      HansTheGreat
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 3,807
      I think for you an average rationally thinking player is a TAG. I mean after his raise on the river my hand range is probably to wide for the raise and your is result oriented(your range is what I call worst scenario).
      What average rationally thinking player donk bets 1/8 pot in a multiway pot and then calls a raise. That puts him just on TP or draw. A set would your type of player raise against my flop raise right regarding the draws???? You raise and you want to give him good pot odds and implied odds. Well dont the coaches always say "make them pay your draws the most expensive as you can?". So we can totally exclude that he has a set but that is one of the moves that is very often on this limits and represent a draw.
    • esuohdla
      esuohdla
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.05.2011 Posts: 411
      Originally posted by Sikac
      What average rationally thinking player donk bets 1/8 pot in a multiway pot and then calls a raise. That puts him just on TP or draw.
      Not really, sometimes i lag/misclick/whatever and end up firing off a horrible bet like that, seeing him do this one time isnt really something we can rely on. I do agree its most likely he was playing a draw of course, just mentioning that a weak bet doesnt mean he isnt a thinking player, which for me is a TAG generally, I find it more profitable to treat unknowns as TAGs than anything else, then change my opinion of them when I get more data.

      As for tightest scenario, yeah my range probably is. Could add a lot of diamond broadways or a few suited connectors, but that actually lowers our equity even further, since they all completed.

      Also, a 3/4 pot size raise gives him 2.5/1 pot odds, hardly good pot odds to call, and he realistically only has any kind of implied odds if the 10d lands on the river, as here. Any other diamond and im through with the hand. This means he will continue playing a wider range than if you bet full pot.

      Just what im thinking here though.
    • hackbinder
      hackbinder
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2009 Posts: 618
      very nice discussion... thanks everyone...

      :)