[NL2-NL10] [NL10 FR] Folding straight vs rivershove

    • BaggerSmurf
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 896
      PokerStars - $0.10 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      MP: $5.15
      CO: $4.15
      BTN: $3.60
      Hero (SB): $12.72
      BB: $3.25
      UTG: $12.08

      Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 9:diamond: J:diamond:

      UTG calls $0.10, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.05, BB checks

      Paying half a BB to enter a pot of 3 seemed like quite reasonable odds to me for entering a pot with J9s.

      Flop: ($0.30, 3 players) 6:club: T:club: Q:spade:
      Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, fold

      I have an OESD here, but I think I should not count the K and 8 since these cards might give my opponent a flush. Having 6 outs, I hit on the turn or river 1 out of 4 times. So to call the $0.20 bet, I should expect to win at least $0.80 if I hit. Since that is something I would expect, I call here.

      Turn: ($0.70, 2 players) K:club:
      Hero checks, UTG bets $0.33, Hero raises to $1.00, UTG raises to $2.00, Hero calls $1.00

      Here comes the card that messes me up. When UTG bets, I decide to raise for both value and protection. I have a very strong hand from which I want to get value from worse hands such as trips or 2 pair, and I do not want to give Villain a cheap 4th .
      When Villain 3bets such a low amount, I feel like he probably has the nuts here and I think I should have folded.

      River: ($4.70, 2 players) 2:heart:
      Hero bets $1.70, UTG raises to $9.59, fold

      On the river I try to make a low blockbet in the hopes of getting to see the showdown a bit more cheaply.
      Once UTG shoves, I have to call $7.89 for a pot of $23.88, so I need $7.89/$23.88 = 0.33 = 33% equity.

      So the thing here is, does he have to flush less than 1 out of 3 times? I think he will have it more often than that.
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello BaggerSmurf,

      Flop: Most likely I would have lead out here already with my OESD rather than Check/Call while you could even gain fold equity.

      As played
      Turn: I would rather bet out myself than Check/Raise. Kind of overplayed your hand, it's a freeplay pot, do you really think they are ever paying with worse? So even if you face a 3bet easy fold after it.

      As played
      River: Why do you donk after him showing strength on the turn? You rarely will see a lot worse hands here. ;)

      Best Regards.