[Closed] Running damn hot on 5/10... FINALLY!

Assuming he bets every hand;
Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 70.238 % 70.238 % 0.000 % 29.762 % 66-TT, AQs-A8s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo-ATo, KJo+
Player 2: 29.762 % 29.762 % 0.000 % 70.238 % AcKs

If we remove the Q hands which he would raise the turn with I think we will catch a bluff here enough of the times to make a profitable call.

2. WA/WB with riverdonk is very hard to play, beause you have to know exactly when to fold. But I like it on this board, you split with most aces, some worse hands like a Q, TT JJ KK might call. Because the flushdraw arrives on the river I think he will almost never bluffraise here as there's a good chance you have a flush.

hi superstar84 :). welcome to the forums

1) i never played this limit myself but i would fold the river... if he is reasonable we can assume that he hit some part of the flop. so i give him a pair (which beats us) or some kind of draw. nearly every draw beats us now because the Q maybe is the worst card in the deck. as palyed i would put him on KT or something like that.
but as i said: i´m not used to these limits so maybe we should wait for cirith ^^

2) i almost tend to c/r the flop and bet the turn here ^^. i think he wouldn´t give us some credit because of the draw heavy board and will call us down very light.
any thoughts ? of course this is just an idea... no advice

btw. superstar84:
pls try to choose some more meaningfull threadtitles in the future

Hi superstar84,

do you play without stats on this limit? If not post them as well to get a better read on the opponents.

Our Elephant works very well.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/software/9/

1) I wouldn't put him on a strong hand so he either has a pocketpair or A-high. He will check most of the A-high hands behind but might bet the pocketpairs so I like bet/folding the river more against A-high.

2) I like frzls line here more as you are often enough ahead against him. The 2-suited board will make him calldown even worse pocketpairs.

1) Villiain raised from UTG, the only hands in his range that I beat are IMO KJs, AJ, A9, maybe A7s., and I seriously do not see him calling here with KJ, A7 and A9, so that the only hand I could valuebet against is AJ.

Too thin, IMO.

2) I agree, I should have raised the flop and bet/fold (?) the turn.
I do play with stats, I will post them next time.

Thanx for your jugements!

1) I think this here might be a reasonable range on the river:

Board: Qs Qd Ts 8h 2s
Dead:

Equity Gewonnen UnentschiedenVerloren Hand
Spieler 1: 59.677 % 59.677 % 0.000 % 40.323 % 99, 66-77, AJs-A8s, KJs-KTs, JTs, AJo-ATo, KJo
Spieler 2: 40.323 % 40.323 % 0.000 % 59.677 % AcKs

With 40% equity I don't like folding here very much. I never calculated this kind of thing so it might be totally wrong.

Let's say this is his calling range if we bet:

Board: Qs Qd Ts 8h 2s
Dead:

Equity Gewonnen UnentschiedenVerloren Hand
Spieler 1: 76.596 % 76.596 % 0.000 % 23.404 % 99, 66-77, AJs-ATs, A8s, KTs, JTs, AJo-ATo
Spieler 2: 23.404 % 23.404 % 0.000 % 76.596 % AcKs

This his betting range if we check/call:

Board: Qs Qd Ts 8h 2s
Dead:

Equity Gewonnen UnentschiedenVerloren Hand
Spieler 1: 100.000 % 100.000 % 0.000 % 0.000 % 99, ATs, KTs, ATo
Spieler 2: 0.000 % 0.000 % 0.000 % 100.000 % AcKs

So you are correct. We are never ahead when we check so check/folding is better than check/calling. (The range above may be wrong but I don't see him bluffing very often here and adding hands he would be for value doesn't change anyhting anyway.)

Now the only question is if we bet/fold or check/fold here.

The pot is 7,5BB big if we check/fold our equity is 0 BB.
If we bet/fold our equity is 9,5*0.23404 = 2,22 BB.

Now we have to take a look at the hands he checks behind where we will win.

3x AJs, 12x AJo, 12x A9o, 3x KJs and 12x KJo that are 42 combinations.

Against all hands he has on the river.

6x 99, 6x 77, 6x 66, 3x AJs, 2x ATs, 3x A9s, 2x A8s, 3x KJs, 3x KTs, 3x JTs, 12x AJo, 9x ATo and 12x KJo that are 70 combinations.

42/70 = 0,6*7,5 BB = 4,5 BB

2,22 BB- 4,5 BB = -2,28.

If I made no error then check/folding is better than bet/folding.

Wow, nice elaboration!

Thanx for the good work!