[NL2-NL10] NL5 AA overpair

    • elda420
      Joined: 22.07.2012 Posts: 149
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      €0.02/€0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      CO = (€2.30)
      BU = (€5.12)
      SB (Hero) = (€6.53)
      BB = (€2.10)
      UTG1 = (€3.99)
      UTG2 = (€8.11)
      MP1 = (€5.01)
      MP2 = (€2.47)
      MP3 = (€5.20)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A.
      UTG1 calls €0.05, 5 folds, BU raises to €0.15, Hero raises to €0.60, BB folds, UTG1 calls €0.55, BU calls €0.45.

      Flop: (€1.85) J, 4, Q (3 players)
      Hero bets €1.21, UTG1 folds, BU calls €1.21.

      Turn: (€4.27) 6 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets €2.00, Hero raises to €4.72, BU calls €1.31.

      River: (€12.3) 7 (2 players)

      Final Pot: €12.3.


      Hero shows a pair of aces(A A).
      BU shows a pair of kings(K K).

      Hero wins with a pair of aces(A A).

      This is just such a scary spot...
      After toying a little with the equilab, this is actually a flip against JJ+, which is the tightest range I can put villain on to call my shove. Including AQs, AJs, AK and a few other marginal hands I actually have very decent equity against his range. Does that make my shove profitable ?
  • 2 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,850
      these points are kinda moot because you are pretty much commited on the turn after betting the flop this big.
      that card changes absolutely nothing, and there you have €3.31 on stacks left on what will be a €10.89 pot, so you only need to be ahead ~30% of the time when shipping the monies.

      you should rather ask yourself about the flop play. what hands are calling you there against such a sizing?
      first it obviously depends on which hands he's calling your 3bet with but he only iso'd to 3bb which probably means that he is not a very good player. so i'd give him a somewhat wide calling range like:

      Board: J:heart: 4:spade: Q:diamond:  6:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     41.76%  39.68%   2.08% { AA, QQ-JJ, KdKs, 4d4h, AQs, KQs, KTs, QJs, AQo }
      BB     58.24%  56.16%   2.08% { AdAs }

      since you have more than 50% equity against his calling range you can value bet.
      as played just ship the turn yourself and avoid checkbehinds which may bring an ugly river, he's most likely calling you with any made hand anyway.
    • bmfbpi
      Joined: 16.09.2008 Posts: 590
      why in the world would you check turn ?