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Guess The Hand & Win Cash! - Week 2

    • TJtheTJ
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,587

      Guess The Hand!

      We are happy to bring you a new community promotion: Guess The Hand!

      Whereas usually you think in ranges, narrowing our Hero down to a single hand could win you a cash prize of $50!

      Congratulations to last week's winner, someone83! The correct answer was KJo with the K of spades.

      This promotion will be running for 4 weeks. We will post a new hand each week, meaning you have one week to guess the hand. This is week 2. You have to guess which two cards Hero holds, and have to explain the reason behind your choice.

      • Only one guess per member is counted. If you make multiple guesses, your first one counts.
      • You must explain your thought process. If you only provide us with a hand, your guess will not be eligible.
      • If more than 1 member guesses the hand correctly, there will be a raffle between them.
      • All guesses must be made before Sunday August 18, 23:59 CET (GMT+2)

      This week's hand

      $2.50/$5 Zoom No Limit Holdem
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by

      UTG ($522.20) 104bb
      UTG+1 ($898.95) 180bb
      CO ($514.52) 103bb
      BTN Hero ($679.11) 136bb
      SB ($707.18) 141bb
      BB ($322.05) 64bb

      Pre-Flop: ($7.50, 6 players) Hero is BTN with X, X
      UTG raises to $15, 2 folds, Hero raises to $40, 2 folds, UTG raises to $90, Hero calls $50

      Flop: 7:diamond: 3:diamond: 4:heart: ($187.50, 2 players)
      UTG bets $72.50, Hero calls $72.50

      Turn: 6:club: ($332.50, 2 players)
      UTG bets $105, Hero calls $105

      River: 4:spade: ($542.50, 2 players)
      UTG goes all-in $254.70, Hero calls $254.70

      Final Pot: $1,051.90

      Have fun and join the game!
  • 90 replies
    • TJtheTJ
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,587
      So who will win this week? :)
    • jbpatzer
      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,955
      Q :spade: Q :diamond:

      Flats a 4bet IP and calls three times = bluffcatcher.

      First again! :f_cool:
    • gadget51
      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      JJ same reason as Jb.
    • nostic1
      Joined: 26.05.2011 Posts: 49
      4 :diamond: 4 :club:
    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      gunna have to go with A:club: A:diamond: . hero prob has a value range of JJ+ or something and i wouldnt be surprised if he has some combos of KK+ for flatting this. i think hero is much happier with his hand postflop because he holds the A:diamond: . no reason to raise for protection cos we block the NFD so villain is really polarised and we just call down.
    • taavi1337
      Joined: 29.05.2009 Posts: 2,920
      It is quite obvious that hero has 7:heart: 7:spade: here. Preflop it is better to 3bet than to flat, because we are crushing his opening range and have the position and even if we get 4bet from this aggro monkey we can flatcall and outplay him postflop.

      When we hit the set it is easy to play. He's such a barreltard and will bet the turn and river a lot anyway, so no need to raise at any point and scare off his Q:heart: J :heart: . He probably expects us to fold our AK's and 99's vs his river shove. I like a snapcall on the river to quickly let him know that he has just lost his entire stack.
    • Varune
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 5,443
      AA with Ace of diamonds is most likely.
      3bet pre vs utg is usually pretty strong, so UTG will also play back very tight. So UTG's range is quite capped to JJ+, maybe some combo's of AK he also 4bets. And some 4betbluffs of KQs or so(if he's capable to do so).

      So on a lot of low boards( like this one here ), hero can just calldown, as we don't have to be afraid of flushes with our Ad, plus the board doesn't hit either of the two ranges. And also maximizing value vs his possible bluffs.
    • champ44
      Joined: 30.10.2010 Posts: 80
      my guess is AA with A of position its rt to flat even with AAs and a 5bet pre might fold hands like QQs or lower pocketpairs and with not that scary board easy to flat all 3 streets as qqs kks or may be even lower pockets over 77s might continue bettin.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Preflop: We can narrow villain's range down to a few things here
      1. Some sort of suited broadway
      2. Some slowplayed monster (AA/KK) - QQ/JJ will definitely shove IMO and not flat the 4bet. If not hero shouldn't be 3-betting it in the first place.
      3. Some suited Ace or connector.

      Flop: I think we can narrow down villain's range even further now, either to some sort of A:dQ/A:dJ, some X:X or the slowplayed KK/AA. Wouldn't be surprised to see A5s too, but I think that stuff like 75s will often just raise on the Flop due to it's poorer playability but high equity.

      Turn: Now villain only continues with 5X/7X/two-pairs or KK+ imo.

      I'll just make a wild guess here, and put hero on A:h5.
    • voidmind
      Joined: 19.01.2011 Posts: 104
      7h, 7c. 3 bet to small utg raise. Call down 4 bet pre.
      When we hit trips on flop, just let him bet out. And when we hit ful house on the river, we got the nuts.
    • Rich552
      Joined: 15.12.2012 Posts: 69
      I believe hero 3bet with 4 Diamond 5 diamond here to play IP post flop against an OOP UTG raiser with a fairly average range that will miss 70% of the time. When villain 4bets range includes some strong pocket pairs TT+. You call him off to play in position post flop. when you hit a GSFD you easily call off the flop IP. You turn a gutshot and expect another barrel from almost every overpair. Not too concerned about FD due to villain only having one combo of AK of diamonds which is now highly unlikely. Thus any diamond on river would not be a disaster. The river brings a 4 and he shoves which you can happily call. (assuming villain isn't aggressive enough to have 4bet with 77)
      I think taavi prob right here though as hero would be much happier to call off turn bet rather than raise with a set but again that would probably push all ovrepairs out of the pot). So I think ill go for this one though as a set is too easy.
    • Lucker9200
      Joined: 18.06.2010 Posts: 271
      my guess would be AA

      preflop: 3bet for value/ call 4b to keep weaker hands in cause him 3bet/jamming against UTG would seem strong
      flop,turn,river: villain could have random bluffs w bd fd/sd+oc[Axs,Kxs], overpairs[~~JJ+] which will keep betting so going in bluff catching mode on the dry board seems legit
    • Gftwrpd4u
      Joined: 01.07.2013 Posts: 56

      My guess would be 77, its a pretty weak 4-bet and we have position. Flop brings a set and we don't want to raise here possibly taking it down on the flop. The turn is not so scary as we can put villain on say around top 8% of hand given the 4 bet, a lot of over cards w/ fd's. River bringing a full house and villain does all the work for you by giving you his stack. At this point I think its pretty safe to say villain is on JJ+.

    • Itsnevereasy
      Joined: 08.08.2010 Posts: 381
      Honestly there is too little information to make an informed decision. Imo the contest would be much improved if you at least revealed the hero's name, or some stats.

      Anyways, Im gonna go with TT. Any hand with a 5 in it is misplayed imo.

      Preflop it is certainly 3bettable given aggressive dynamics. Flop/Turn call is standard. River, hero calls because he perhaps believes villain wouldn't bet an overpair given the runout - or maybe villain bet really fast and with AA/KK/QQ he would have thought for 3-4 seconds before betting.

      Good Luck to All. :f_o:
    • DjolusVicenus
      Joined: 15.11.2009 Posts: 259
      Please state next time who won the hand.

      Q :diamond: Qx :heart:


      From BU Hero 3bet for value... When Villan 4bet Hero Called Bluff-Catcher...

      Flop is fine for Hero,

      All streets are bluff catchers....
    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Why not stats or hero stats? :( :P

      OK PF I guess std ranges are KK+, some AK/QQ and ATs, AJo, A5s maybe some KQo as bluffs.

      Vill 4bets, without info we can't float our bluffs here so QQ/AK and some KK+ left.

      Flop, QQ+ and AK with a diamond left

      Turn mainly QQ+

      Ok river we are guessing lol. I mean, is hero a good reg and who is UTG.. Normally people don't 3bet QQ anymore v UTG.

      People like to ship KK because they are scared of Axx flops..

      Sooo I'm going for AA. AsAd seems cool to flat and just call flop
    • gazpe
      Joined: 03.02.2011 Posts: 37
      Hero range looks very strong here, QQ+, AK...Its ok to trap with AA, sometimes KK and to call three barells with that. With KK we are losing mostly only from AA, so its ok to call. I am going for KK here with K of diamonds.
    • JimC6
      Joined: 01.04.2011 Posts: 458
      My Guess would be JJ

      Hero has to have a strong hand to 3bet the UTG raiser and I think with AA, KK, QQ he would 5bet pre and so I don't think he has them. I think UTG has AK or AQ and so Hero calls not wanting to get into a pre-flop flip.

      The flop doesn't look like it it would have improved the UTG's hand so when he bets the Hero calls.

      The turn puts 4 to a straight but from the pre-flop play it is unlikely that the UTG has a 5 and so when he bets again the hero still thinks he is ahead and just calls as he only has to dodge 2 overcards and doesn't want to scare UTG off the pot hoping if he misses the river he will bluff at it.

      The river is pretty much ideal for Hero pairing the board so it is most likely that his JJ are still the best hand and he calls the all-in from the UTG who is bluffing with AK.
    • SheepMoose
      Joined: 15.01.2009 Posts: 854
      QQ with whatever suits.

      Hero 3bets preflop vs. UTG open for value (QQ is still a pretty good hand vs. UTG opens), and calls the 4bet. QQ is too weak to 5bet shove UTG vs. Button, and JJ would just fold most likely.

      Hero then calls down with a bluff catcher. I'm expecting villain to either be a maniac and play TT/JJ this way, or turn up with Ad Kd that is betting as a bluff on the river.