Guess The Hand & Win Cash! - Week 3

    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411



      Guess The Hand!

      We are happy to bring you a new community promotion: Guess The Hand!

      Whereas usually you think in ranges, narrowing our Hero down to a single hand could win you a cash prize of $50!

      Congratulations to last week's winner, AtrociousNightmare! The correct answer was AA.

      This promotion will be running for 4 weeks. We will post a new hand each week, meaning you have one week to guess the hand. This is week 3.

      This week will be a little bit different. This is the same hand as last week, where hero (pleno1) has AA. This time, you have to guess which hand our opponent has, considering we know that we hold AA.

      Rules
      • Only one guess per member is counted. If you make multiple guesses, your first one counts.
      • You must explain your thought process. If you only provide us with a hand, your guess will not be eligible.
      • If more than 1 member guesses the hand correctly, there will be a raffle between them.
      • All guesses must be made before Sunday August 25, 23:59 CET (GMT+2)


      This week's hand

      $2.50/$5 Zoom No Limit Holdem
      PokerStars
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($522.20) 104bb
      UTG+1 ($898.95) 180bb
      CO ($514.52) 103bb
      BTN Hero ($679.11) 136bb
      SB ($707.18) 141bb
      BB ($322.05) 64bb

      Pre-Flop: ($7.50, 6 players) Hero is BTN with A:diamond: , A:club:
      UTG raises to $15, 2 folds, Hero raises to $40, 2 folds, UTG raises to $90, Hero calls $50

      Flop: 7:diamond: 3:diamond: 4:heart: ($187.50, 2 players)
      UTG bets $72.50, Hero calls $72.50

      Turn: 6:club: ($332.50, 2 players)
      UTG bets $105, Hero calls $105

      River: 4:spade: ($542.50, 2 players)
      UTG goes all-in $254.70, Hero calls $254.70

      Final Pot: $1,051.90

      So, which hand did villain have?

      Have fun and join the game!
  • 71 replies
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      A5s, is a good hand to 4bet bluff with blockers, cbet bluff with gutshot maybe also FD, and turns straight ships it on river.
    • Swish29
      Swish29
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.04.2009 Posts: 263
      I will go for KQ. Villain could think that he cannot r/c KQ profitably OOP, so he 4bets it preflop using the blockers, then 3 barrels to get Ax/TT type of hands (so relatively good preflop hands but not good to play for stacks given the positions) to fold.
    • summermonkey
      summermonkey
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2009 Posts: 483
      KK going for straight value.

      Utg range is strong and he will be thinking he is good against our smaller pockets.

      So he goes bet bet bet.
    • SirPaulius
      SirPaulius
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 580
      KK protecting hand against draws
    • FlyingDutchm1n
      FlyingDutchm1n
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2012 Posts: 278
      I go with KK. He may have folded if we had re-raised him, that is why it is good to just flatcall, might chase off KK if we re-raise which was also my logic behind guessing AA (correctly) last week. He originally raises from UTG, which generally stilll points at a premium hand. As we don't re-raise him, which he would expect if we had AA, he doesn't think we have AA and he is betting his KK overpair for value over 3 streets. I could also imagine him having AA but as we have AA it is so less likely so I go with the next best hand KK. Maybe he puts us on a high pocket pair QQ, JJ, TT or A-broadway but none of these cards hit so he is betting for value from start to finish.
    • pppppp555555
      pppppp555555
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.02.2010 Posts: 41
      QQ
    • mylove190207
      mylove190207
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.04.2011 Posts: 807
      Hi. I will say 55. PF he raise from the utg and because he is OOP he wanna get lead in the hand so he 4 bet. On flop he made standard c-bet in 4 bet pot. When 6 came on turn, he wanna to induce shove from us with 1/3 pot bet when he have just little more than pot in his stack. River shove is standard as he is commited to the pot.
    • bankrollmanagment
      bankrollmanagment
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.05.2010 Posts: 18
      AdKd c-bet, semi bluf
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      4Betting v pleno pbb with QQ+/AK but will discount some QQ/AKs because it isn't standard to play them 4b/broke. Bluffs like AJs maybe ATs, I think he calls AQs, KQs most of the time. He can have KQo or AJo too and maybe a low AXs if he opens that and chooses to 4bet.

      Sizes are pretty standard but look valueish to me, the turn doesn't improve much except for A5s but don't think people open/4bet this hand too much. He could be tripple barreling AK ofc.

      So I'm going to choose KK or AK. I think he is only bluffing like 1/2th of the time with AK so I think there are more combos of KK overall.

      I choose KK.

      Btw, I think it's pretty obvious villain should have more value than bluffs given the odds we're getting so makes sense to choose a valuehand. KK has most combos of all valuehands!
    • kiesza
      kiesza
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.02.2010 Posts: 6
      AA becouse he is agressive
    • Leito99
      Leito99
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2009 Posts: 754
      AQo,

      As calling the 3bet is questionable he decided to keep the initiative and 4bet

      Then on this board he triple barrels to get hands like AK and TT to fold
    • peche025
      peche025
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2008 Posts: 1,387
      A :spade: A :heart: villian is going for value.
    • kennethjeu
      kennethjeu
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.08.2011 Posts: 621
      I would go for KK. It is just a clear value line from vil who will be happy to get the money in on 3 streets with his overpair. QQ/AK would probably not 4bet/broke UTG.
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,338
      definitely K:heart: K:spade: ! dont think it makes sense to be a bluff with something like K:diamond: Q:diamond: because he probably doesnt have much FE for shipping the river. so imo he has a value hand - KK or QQ? meh, KK.
    • Gftwrpd4u
      Gftwrpd4u
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.07.2013 Posts: 56
      Got to go with K:diamond: K , he's got the back door flush draw plus he's holding a good overpair. Pleno goes into bluff catch mode and calls down 3 streets.
    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      KK or AA going for pure value on all streets, since our most likely range is some TT-QQ not willing to 3b/jam pre given the positions. there are 6 combos of KK and 1 combo of AA, so i choose KK obv...

      also could be some bluff 4b pre, like KQdd/KJdd/QJdd using blockers but i dont think these 3 would bluff the river, since there is very little, close to no fold eq.. and KQs might be even good enough to call oop vs certan people even given the positions
    • Musher1993
      Musher1993
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.06.2012 Posts: 107
      QQ, 4bet pre instead of calling the 3b to get value from hands like KQ, AK and TT-JJ.
      On the flop the bet is to extract value from draws, the smaller bet size on the turn is 1/3 pot while a flush draw is <(1/3) to hit on the river, plus they can't put the hero on any 5x combos. The river doesn't change anything board wise, if the hero was on a draw with something like AKdd then he can't call so they shove it in
    • jadzia1337
      jadzia1337
      Basic
      Joined: 06.08.2013 Posts: 2
      my guess is AA betting all streets for value
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      by the way guys, I can make people realllllllllllly tilt, so its not always QQplus!