Hey guys,
Today we will take a hand posted by Alleen86 and open up a key discussion: what should our thought process be when playing a hand like this? In other words, what questions should we ask ourselves and what information should we look at when running big bluffs.
Here's the hand:
Originally posted by Alleen86
Hello!IPoker, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.SB: $9 (180 bb)
BB: $3.22 (64.4 bb)
UTG: $1.94 (38.8 bb)
MP: $4.06 (81.2 bb)
CO: $5.54 (110.8 bb)
Hero (BTN): $6.12 (122.4 bb)Preflop: Hero is BTN with K
2
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.10, SB folds, BB calls $0.05Flop: ($0.22) J
9
8
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.15, BB calls $0.15Turn: ($0.52) 6
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.30River: ($1.12) 7
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.80, BB raises to $2.67, Hero foldsPreflop: Standard.
Flop: Hit BDFD and BDSD + an overpair, so I think cbetting is standard.
Turn: Hit my FD, so decided to 2barrel.
River: Since the card is so dangerous, and I think he would sometimes donk with a straightdraw, I decided to 3barrel and take him off TP or two pairs. Too optimistic against a fish?
BB: 50/0/6 (VPIP/PFR/H)
Let's look at some things that we should consider before running big bluffs vs most weaker opponents:
What type of opponent do I play against? Are they more prone to calling or folding?
What range does my opponent have (on each street)?
How does this card affect my opponent's range?
What bet size should I be using?
What do I represent (not important vs weak opponents)?
What do we know in this hand?
Let's start with:
Preflop:
Villain is most likely a recreational player (fish) due to stack size and (albeit small) hand sample.
Villain's range is very wide because we min raise preflop and he calls in the BB.
Flop:
The board is somewhat wet and connects with a lot of hands (lower fold equity).
We have a backdoor flush/straight and an overcard (low equity). A lot of the cards that improve our equity also help him out.
Those two items combined (low FE + low HE) make for a bad/expensive spot to run big bluffs in.
Turn:
This card does not change much.
This card helps part of villains weaker range (7x, 6x type hands) while not affecting (negatively) the better part of his range.
River:
This card improves a vast majority of his range.
He now has a lot of two pair+.
He may have a hard time folding even one pair type hands.
Conclusion:
When looking to run big bluffs (or even smaller ones) look at all the information that you have available. The player type, board texture, etc. are all important in making a decision. We cannot simply bet because we want to win the pot. We have to bet because it makes sense and we expect the result to be in our favor.
Homework:
Input villains river range into equilab.
Input your hand into equilab.
Input the board texture.
Look at his range distribution.
Can he fold at least 42% of the time (in other words, can he fold 42% of combos)? In reality you actually have to account for rake as well so that 42% is more like 45-47%.




VS