Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:
$0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Known players:
[tg]BU$7.64:///////;SB$5.00:///////;BB (Hero)$5.00:///////;MP2$8.21:///////;MP3$7.27:///////;CO$5.89:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is BB with A:h, K:d.
MP2 raises to $0.15, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.15, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.10.
Flop: ($0.47) 9:h, A:s, 5:d (3 players)
Hero bets $0.18, MP2 folds, CO calls $0.18.
Turn: ($0.83) 2:c (2 players)
Hero bets $0.51, CO calls $0.51.
River: ($1.85) 2:s (2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, CO raises to $5.05(All-In), Hero folds, CO gets uncalled bet back.
Final Pot: $2.95.
Previously we looked at a spot where we held a pure bluffcatcher on the river and our opponents bluff:value ratio was estimated to be such that we could easily fold all of our bluffcatchers. Here we will look at a second spot where the range of an average unknown is heavily unbalanced towards value.
Again we are primarily interested in the river play although we will comment briefly on the earlier streets as usual.
Preflop It looks like the best option may be to squeeze here preflop. Calling will obviously still be +EV but AK will play better in a HU situation. Naturally we don't want to face a 4bet in this spot and won't be able to stack off with the positions involved - so there can sometimes be exploitative reasons for flatting as opposed to squeezing.
Flop The small sizing here reflects the fact that we are in a multi-way pot. The board is dry enough here that checking to the preflop raiser would also be a reasonable option. The best line really depends on our opponents.
Turn It generally makes sense to keep betting for value. CO can potentially have things like AQ/AJ/ATs etc. Draws are extremely unlikely on this particular board texture so the majority of our value comes from worse Ax hands.
River We go for thin value here. We shouldn't always bet TPTK for 3 streets in every spot but many players will find it tough to lay down a worse Ax here given the board runout.
We face a raise. Similar to before we should assume villain is heavily weighted towards value in this particular situation. So the next question is: Do we beat any of his value-range or do we hold a pure bluffcatcher? It seems extremely unlikely that our opponent would be playing AQ like this. His value-range is likely 99/55 and not too much else. We are assuming 2x and A9 type hands are unlikely, although if villain did reach the river with these he may well go ahead and raise for value.
So, we just hold a bluffcatcher and it's reasonably safe to assume that the average unknown has a very value-heavy range at any point where he decides to raise our river bet. We have a pretty easy fold now.
