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Low set in danger board

20 Posts
17 Users
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Polezi
Joined: 13.08.2009

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $14.37 (143.7 bb)
BB: $7.18 (71.8 bb)
Hero (UTG): $10 (100 bb)
MP: $4.85 (48.5 bb)
CO: $11.35 (113.5 bb)
BTN: $16.82 (168.2 bb) 47/29 17 hands

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7 7
Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.30, SB folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95) 7 Q T (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.68, BTN calls $0.68, BB folds

Turn: ($2.31) A (2 players)
Hero bets $1.65, BTN raises to $15.84 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$5.61 pot ($0.25 rake)
Final Board: 7 Q T A
Hero mucked 7 7 and lost (-$2.63 net)
BTN mucked and won $5.36 ($2.73 net)

call or fold?


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19 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

We have a bottom set, there is a possible flush and straight. I don't believe he is shoving with a worse hand if he is not a complete fish. I think fold is ok.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Man, this is ugly.
But still with so much possible better hands I think you made a good fold.


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JCSeerup
Joined: 14.12.2010
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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

If BU is fish I think you have to call, he will have a lot of 2 pair hands and you will some weird stuff from time to time, but vs reg here it's tough and folding probably is better.


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Gawdless73
Joined: 11.09.2015

Agreed while it sucks folding the set, unless you have some read that the player is crazy its a good fold.


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Volrath89
Joined: 23.07.2008

u can also c/c turn, c/f river if u don't hit a full or poker; depends on how much the villain bets on the turn, you have 7 outs to improve + implied odds (he looks fishy). If he doesn't bet the turn then you have a vbet on the river against doubles or tp hands


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Agree with Volrath98. You definitely don't want to get value or steal anymore but bluff catch. Have you thought about if he would go all-in OTT after your 2nd barrel and what you would do? The board is a genuine pleasant invitation to make a shove on 2-pair and A-K & A-J of any kind (since I don't think someone with such stats is always aware of 3Betting these hands OTB).
My line would be x/c OTT and x/c on a blank river card (I do not see the reason in x/r OTR in this scenario but if anyone sees, please enlighten me!). I would find a fold when the river is a club, K or J.


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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

Don't see why x/c OTT has higher EV than betting... We have clear value bet OTT and BU will x back a lot with hands which has around 20% equity vs your set.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Cause flush and straight got there and you are probably behind but still can improve.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

This advice would cause you to lose much more this hand: Bet much more on both flop and turn, but whether you want to bet enough to "commit" is up to you.


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Aerox232
Joined: 28.04.2011

only worst hands he could do this is, QT . Ax flush draws!
if hes cappable of slowplawing AQ , then we can add some AQ as well, but thats not likely,

My guess here would be AQ whit flushdraw, or he just hoping get call whit A high flush draw when he have KJ.

Too many combos beat us, we beat only few , so fold is best play here i guess.


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CPallo
Joined: 12.04.2012

Give up versus unknown player or player, that is not way out of control. Even KJ beats you here and I doubt not that many players raise it in this case on turn when you 2nd barrel.


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LeSavant
Joined: 09.12.2006

I think I would never 2nd barrel the turn, instead c/c and also call a small river bet on a blank
- if you raise you isolate yourself against strong hands and fold all floats, he seems loose so I think he will bluff here with a lot of air
- he is pretty loose and might bluff the turn a lot IP while he can still hold very strong made hands, 2 pairs and Ace flush draws
- he is agressive so I assume he might even 3bet some AK or AJ which you can discount from his range IP
--> you are either way ahead or way behind and want to see a showdown
- you keep your own range wide
- you can improve on river
-river might be scary for him as well and you can get lots of value if you improve

As played I would fold, default is to assume that Players on these stakes play honest at the turn and, at least, have some Ax flushdraw+ maybe sometimes top 2 pair. Maybe someone can equilab this shit, I feel like I already spent too much time with this hand Against some of these hands we are ahead but even those shout have outs against us.
I think you need a read on your opponent to make a call here, but as mentioned before I would prefer another line.


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hellraiser22
Joined: 28.09.2007

The opponents play looks more like protection, my guess is KJ or better, good fold.


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jonnyZ
Joined: 24.05.2010

Think he would raise Ac OTF. His sizing is strange but looks like protection with KJ or low flush or something in that style. Think you would need a read on this guy for overplaying his tp to call here.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

He will not always raise Ac OTF.
Fold is good.


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AceHigh197
Joined: 19.03.2020

I believe the decision you took was a tough one, and few would find to fold there but is the correct play. There are just too many draws out there, flush, straight and even better set that yours. However, if the villain really had the nuts there, why would he risk to scare you off, by betting so large? This is another thing you should consider. To be honest, I do think he had KK with one of the kings being King of clubs. But not sure. Anyways, well played...is better than falling into a trap from him by overbetting!


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Jaytrox
Joined: 24.02.2011

I would have folded as well


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