# Variance or me beeing stupid

• Bronze
Joined: 06.10.2007
In my database i have around 93k hands.
5740 of those are pocket pairs.
Odds of hitting a set on the flop are 7.5 : 1, and therefore i should get [5740:7.5]= 765sets

My poker tracker says that i got 429 sets. So there are more then 300 missing due to variance?

Is this true or i made a mistake in my calculations?

thx
• 12 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 26.11.2008
Probability of flopping set or better: 1 in 8.51
Odds against flopping set or better: 7.51:1

So you should have flopped 674 sets or better. The difference is due to variance or rigged site .

Source
• Bronze
Joined: 06.10.2007
This is crazy then. If would have picked in those hands just blinds and not a peny from continuatinal bets that would sum up a fortune...

Not to mention how many times i could stack someone who has overpair...
Joined: 17.01.2008
You forget a simple fact.
You didnt see the flop every time you had a pocket pair.
• Black
Joined: 20.02.2008
it would be pretty sick if those odds were correct, as you could then just fold pocket pairs and still hit sets after having folded!
• Bronze
Joined: 16.06.2007
Originally posted by darkonebg
You forget a simple fact.
You didnt see the flop every time you had a pocket pair.
!!!

Use a filter that only shows postflop hands.

Best regards,
Chiller3k
• Bronze
Joined: 19.04.2008
you have to shout "one time baby!!" more often.
• Bronze
Joined: 06.10.2007
Is this filter under actions\flop\saw flop?

If yes then i should have had 450 sets on flop, but i had only 400. This looks better but still its a lot i would say.
• Bronze
Joined: 26.11.2008
Originally posted by Ensyfer
Is this filter under actions\flop\saw flop?

If yes then i should have had 450 sets on flop, but i had only 400. This looks better but still its a lot i would say.
dividing by 8.5 or 7.5?
• Bronze
Joined: 06.10.2007
7.5?
• Bronze
Joined: 03.06.2008
Hi!
The odds for flopping sets is just 2/50+2/49+2/48, that is roughly 1 in 8.

GL at the tables!
• Bronze
Joined: 11.12.2007
Originally posted by ZeroDegrees
Hi!
The odds for flopping sets is just 2/50+2/49+2/48, that is roughly 1 in 8.

GL at the tables!
not true, its 1-P(not flop a set) = 1-(48/50*47/49*46/48) = 1-0.882449= 0.117551= 11.7551%

7.51:1 according to Doyle's Super System appendix which is the same as 11.7509% so that should be correct
• Bronze
Joined: 03.06.2008
Yeah, that sounds much better.