[PROJECT] From Rags to Riches 2.0 (PLO10 version)

My guess ist 17/20

12/16

Winning 18bb/100
EV 16bb/100

Gl gl, and nice job with the 1.0 version, good stuff.

Winrate 13bb, EV 25. Sorry for jinx ♦

Good luck !

Winning 23bb/100
EV 18bb/100

You still got few hours to join and make a prediction. Free money, and only 5 participants?

14/21

22/15

18/24

Hoping the "system" will process this late reg: 11/14

As I haven't posted the first update, you are good.

Here is the situation at the moment:

Not as smooth as the previous project. Since the hot start, I have had an avalanche of setups. Today was the worst, nutflush vs 2nd nutflush all the time, trips vs trips in 3bet pots, rivered backdoors and 2 outers from left and right. Also faced straight flush twice when I had nutflush. And then in the end I got another heater.

Greenline is awesome. Orange is mediocre. But I expect it to rise again, as those setups shouldn't continue for eternity. My Call River Efficiency was as low as 0,22 at one point today. In the end it's 1,16. It dived as I made those calldowns with those 2nd nuts versus nuts all the time.

As the aggression is a bit higher than at PLO2, the variance goes up. This shoud get interesting, here are all the participants so far:

Here are the current winrates:

Closest prediction at the moment is from repescov!

7,5K done.

Same in numbers:

Now when the Avalanche of Setups is over, the orange line (is that what Trump's wall is going to be called too?) starts to go in to right direction too. Looks like the overall prize will be decent sized, if the graphs keep it going.

Well, it didn't. 13 buyins down, Avalanche continues.

Quite horrible session. It was hard to get the stacks in, and when I did it was like flopping the nuts, and betting flop and turn for value. On the river opponent has made runner runner hand, when calling the flop with trash. Basic theme of the session was "get the money in against 4-8 outer, lose by the river". Then some setups in 3bet pots (trips vs trips, or aggro calling preflop 3bet with TT83r, and stacking me off on T63ss while I had AA89ss) and insane amount of check-call, check-raise lines from opponents. I only assume that for most of the times it was slowplayed set or similar, but then few guys had that line with bare overpair.

That's one of the harders things at PLO10z. People do strange things, and you just don't know who does it nor when. A reg with decent stats played bare AA by just calling preflop, check-calling on QJ8ss flop (without the flushdraw) and then check-raising on blank turn. He didn't have blocker, and I have no idea if it was a bluff (bad one) or a value shove (bad one). Then when you think that "ok, they overplay that kind of hands" you face slowplayed top sets on those spots. The logic of the playing field is illogical, and it's easy to get lost in there.

Getting value is also one problem. There are players that give a lot of value. But majority of the field are just passive nits. As I color code nits with red, I have almost run out of red in my client. Against those it's nearly impossible to play a big pot without a setup. In the long run setups don't really make money and smaller pots don't overcome the rake.

At least I am still making small profit. And paid over $150 in rake while doing that.

Well, that evened out smoothly...

Just a normal 24 buyin downswing.

My everyday grinding session in this project: nut boat vs. quads twice, nut flush vs straight flush, and then five stacks lost to gamblers who cold called my 3bet with rainbow pocket pair and flopped a set.

And besides that, nothing held as you can see from the graph.

7,5K hands left in the project, looks like we might end up almost anywhere.

Lol running out of red for marking nits ♦
And I can't even the last time I had such an over ev heater, nor a 20+ bi downswing you get it all in 12k hands

Devil's game this is !

Swingaments!

I got something back, and then I lost it. But the story line is set: no one outplays me, the only way to win a big pot from me is either -EV call or a setup.

As long as the way to lose money is when regs keep cold calling 3bets with J986ss 200bb deep, then call a 4bet and hitting QT7ss flop, I should be ok.

Strange thing is that somewhat passive guys make sometimes strange river bluffs. Probably the reason is that they don't have any idea about range thinking, so they don't even think what they are representing nor what is my range. They just bet cos they want to bluff.

BTN: 297.7 BB (VPIP: 28.72, PFR: 7.45, 3Bet Preflop: 2.38, Hands: 95)
SB: 209.9 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 15.15, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 34)
Hero (BB): 660.8 BB
UTG: 156.1 BB (VPIP: 32.74, PFR: 14.16, 3Bet Preflop: 7.27, Hands: 116)
MP: 112.6 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
CO: 236.2 BB (VPIP: 7.22, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 1.27, Hands: 183)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♣ A♥ 9♣ K♥

UTG raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 11 BB, UTG calls 7.5 BB

Flop: (22.5 BB, 2 players) T♥ 9♠ 4♦
Hero bets 16.1 BB, UTG calls 16.1 BB

Turn: (54.7 BB, 2 players) 3♦
Hero bets 39.3 BB, UTG calls 39.3 BB

Here I bet just to realize the folding equity we have. Opponent is kind of a player who would raise 2pairs+ on the flop. 3 doesn't hit often his UTG hand, so most of the times he has Txxx/9xxx/draw here.

River: (133.3 BB, 2 players) 2♣
Hero checks, UTG bets 89.7 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 89.7 BB

On the river he decides to shove. When there is a flush draw open on the turn, he would have shoved any 2pairs+ on the turn for sure. So the only hands that beat me are some kind of T2xx (unlikely) and 56/A5 (unlikely). And if he had T2,92 I think he would check back them some of the times. He is repping such a narrow range, and on the other hand he has a lot of missed draws. If he would have thought about my range, I shouldn't have that many hands that I would check-fold. Probably all my checking hands will have showdown value (as I would bet my air), so that's a bad spot for him to bluff.

UTG shows T♣ 5♦ Q♣ K♦ (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 30%, Flop 43%, Turn 45%)
Hero shows K♣ A♥ 9♣ K♥ (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 70%, Flop 57%, Turn 55%)
Hero wins 299.4 BB

That’s a crazy hand for sure. It looks like you are in a downswing. Hopefully you will get up again.

That hand lol