[NL2-NL10] NL10 rush 150bb deep muck my set?

    • cjchalmers
      cjchalmers
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.08.2010 Posts: 219
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      BB:
      $14.31
      UTG1:
      $11.73
      UTG2:
      $3.90
      MP1:
      $16.05
      MP2 (Hero):
      $14.55
      MP3:
      $10.27
      CO:
      $3.90
      BU:
      $3.78
      SB:
      $9.95


      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6, 6.
      2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, 5 folds, 4 folds, 3 folds, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($0.85) 5, 7, 6 (2 players)
      MP1 bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80.

      Turn: ($2.45) A (2 players)
      MP1 bets $2.00, Hero raises to $4.00, MP1 raises to $14.90, Hero folds, MP1 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $6.45.


      ... urgh this spot made me puke... realistically i can only beat overplayed AK and 5-5 ... and the latter i think he holds only 5pc of the time.....

      screaming aces to me ..... verdicts?

      thx in advance..... cjchalmers

      Edit: First time using converter and posting a hand... have to say it was very easy and instructions were very clear ... great work guys... A+ service
  • 6 replies
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      The thing is you don't have to get bet/3bet to realize that his range is pretty strong there.

      When he open raises preflop and pots the flop, it's already quite likely he has at worst some big pair he's trying to protect, and maybe once in a while he's just betting huge with pure air or a semibluff to try and get you out of the way more often.

      Hence when the turn comes an A and he bets near pot again, do you think he'd do that with hands like 88-KK that just turn an overcard? I don't. That leaves us with some bluffs he found a good card to continue with, some AQ/AK type hands if he's at all capable of bluff c-betting near pot with that on that flop (and most people will actually lower their bet sizing once they hit top pair even if they potted a bluff on the flop), maybe some T8s/KhQh type hands that he's still semi-bluffing with if he's a bit loose, and AA/sets/98s that he'd pretty much always play this way.

      Weighting all that and considering how few people will actually pot c-bet the flop with nothing, I think AA/sets/98s are more likely than all the rest combined, so I'd just call the turn and possibly fold the river if he bombs it again or call if he's betting something that could look like he indeed has AK.


      Hope it helps.
    • cjchalmers
      cjchalmers
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.08.2010 Posts: 219
      *in this hand villian is a complete unknown


      Hi thanks for your reply... I agree with you, as soon as he pot c-bet the flop his range became much smaller...

      I was extremely unhappy to see the ace on the turn.

      It was also my thought at the time when he c-bet the turn that he was unlikely to do this with 8-8-KK...

      I raised the turn as i believed i still had lots of value (vs bluff / AK).. taking this line i would not have bet the river and would have also probably folded to anything other than a "block bet" on the river...

      I figured in this situation if my hand was good enough to call, then it was also good enough to raise...

      If i am in doubt of a situation i like to ask the question ... seems like i got a pretty clear answer...

      Would be most grateful if you have the time to give your opinion on my further comments...

      *shame i didn't have any reads... these kind of spots become so much easier.

      EDIT: I also like asking the question on the turn because he is still 120bb deep after c betting...
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,

      Originally posted by cjchalmers
      *in this hand villian is a complete unknown


      Hi thanks for your reply... I agree with you, as soon as he pot c-bet the flop his range became much smaller...

      I was extremely unhappy to see the ace on the turn.

      It was also my thought at the time when he c-bet the turn that he was unlikely to do this with 8-8-KK...

      I raised the turn as i believed i still had lots of value (vs bluff / AK).. taking this line i would not have bet the river and would have also probably folded to anything other than a "block bet" on the river...

      I figured in this situation if my hand was good enough to call, then it was also good enough to raise...

      If i am in doubt of a situation i like to ask the question ... seems like i got a pretty clear answer...

      Would be most grateful if you have the time to give your opinion on my further comments...

      *shame i didn't have any reads... these kind of spots become so much easier.

      EDIT: I also like asking the question on the turn because he is still 120bb deep after c betting...
      I don't think you're wrong per se about most of what you said about that hand, I just read more into some things than you do.

      Little things are important. Him open-raising to pot doesn't tell us much, but most fish won't bet $0.8 into $0.85 or $2 into $2.45, if they wanna bet pot they'll just do that. So coupled with the fact that he has more than 100bb so far (he's not some fish running around with 60bb at the very least even tho fish can run stacks up occasionally), I think it's quite likely he's some sort of regular, which is why I treated him as such.

      If he had potted the flop and potted the turn, it would have been more likely he was just some fish with absolutely no idea when to c-bet and when not to c-bet, hence giving him a lot more potential hands on the turn including a lot of Ax hands like AQ/A7 and stuff like TT-KK as well, in which case I would indeed still raise the turn and felt it or just call planning on shoving over any river for value.

      The only thing you said that bothers me is the "good enough to call = good enough to raise" thing. It might be close to true against some mindless fish, since when they deem a hand good enough to bet they tend to call a raise with it very often. But it's going to turn out completely wrong as you as you encounter thinking opponents. Just look at how tag-on-tag violence works on dry flops between straightforward players.

      Let's assume two decent nits, the kind that can fold seemingly big hands when they feel they're beat. Nit1 opens AK from UTG, Nit2 calls on the BU, flop is A72r, Nit1 c-bets big and Nit2 raises. What goes through Nit1's mind at that point looks like "damn, I c-bet my TPTK big and yet that guy raised, people don't raise Ax hands there so he probably has a set", and suddenly his TPTK is a bluff-catcher. Hence even if Nit2 was way ahead with his 22, he's never going to get called by worse hands unless Nit1 punctually feels like he's not folding his bluff-catcher. Thus 22 was good enough to call with for sure being way ahead of Nit1's range, yet there was nothing to be gained by raising, if anything it gave Nit1 an easy fold with TPTK, whereas he might have continued to valueown himself if Nit2 had just called the flop representing something like AQ.


      Hope it helps.
    • cjchalmers
      cjchalmers
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.08.2010 Posts: 219
      Yes this has been very useful ... thank you
    • Bojan1983
      Bojan1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.11.2006 Posts: 92
      I ve played alot of hands at NL25 and NL10... according to my experience this is easy call on the turn...

      He could have AK, AQ, 88, A8, A6, A5, A7, A4 even some kind of flushdraw with open ended draw...

      I allways go all the way with this kind of hand, and in only maybe 5% i see stronger set or lucky A or K which gave him set after the flop...

      that doesnt mean you were wrong here, just wanna say its generally profitable to go all the way with this hand...

      just my 2c

      :)
    • cjchalmers
      cjchalmers
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.08.2010 Posts: 219
      I like your line bojan

      Looking at all the possibilities this is almost certainly most profitable in this spot...

      All the extra cash picked up from "valueowns" and bluff catches will surely make up for all the times he shows me a better hand...

      Thx dude ... also thank you again zerg