Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
SB ($22.31)
BB ($20.06)
UTG ($19.10)
UTG+1 ($4.31)
Hero ($23)
BTN ($25)
Dealt to Hero 4♠ K♠
fold, UTG+1 calls $0.20, Hero raises to $0.80, fold, SB calls $0.70, BB calls $0.60, UTG+1 calls $0.60
FLOP ($3.20) J♠ 4♣ T♠
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2.40, SB calls $2.40, BB folds, UTG+1 folds
TURN ($8) J♠ 4♣ T♠ Q♦
SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB calls $6
RIVER ($20) J♠ 4♣ T♠ Q♦ T♣
SB checks, Hero bets $13.80 (AI)
I was trying to isolate the guy on my right who was playing 80/30 pre and folding to 70% of cbets so I think the isoraise was fine.
Got called by both blinds, sb is a nit, 14/8 and no 3bets after 80 hands. Postflop AG of 0.5. didn't notice but WTSD 38% (maybe too small sample for that to matter?)
BB looks very solid, 20/17/7 preflop and haven't seen noteworthy mistakes post after 300 hands.
On the flop I sort of hit but I think I much prefer taking a free card here. I'm not sure though, there are worse draws that call and better hands that fold. thoughts?
Turn onwards I get a bit lost, I guess you could give him some combos of sets (don't think he'd 3bet JJ but I'd expect a bet or c/r with sets on this board) ,KJs+,K9s,QJs,JT,AJo+,KJo,QJo maybe some 98,Q9, on the turn which I Have 35-40% against.
If its going all in I need 42% to BE so I don't need a fold very often to make it +EV
At the time I thought river bet was bad (but did it anyway) is he folding enough here to make it ok?
I feel like I've made my analysis look more favourable to my play than the reality of getting in a massive pot against a nit with a not-that-good hand.