[Closed] btm set vs nit OOP nl100

Not sure about this because it's FR, but imo bet $16 on the turn for max value.

On the river I think we should bet big because I think he will almost always fold PPs anyway. So I'd try to get maximum value vs 6x and overbetAI.

Originally posted by Bierbaer
Not sure about this because it's FR, but imo bet $16 on the turn for max value.

On the river I think we should bet big because I think he will almost always fold PPs anyway. So I'd try to get maximum value vs 6x and overbetAI.

hi biebaer, i dont agree about getting max value from 6x on the river here. he's not callin two streets with a 6x pretty dry board on the flop with scare card K on the turn. if any, that 6x would have me beat.

i think i could have bet bigger on the turn, and bet 1/2 pot on the river hoping for a loose value call from Tx, kx, JJ QQ AA which is more in his range?

The question is if he would ever call Tx here even vs a 1/2 pot bet - we still barreled 3 streets so imo he's going to fold it a lot.

Also JJ and QQ will have a hard time calling the third barrel, so Kx and AA are about the only hands we can expect to get value from.

hi bierbaer, can i clarify,you're saying max value line is better for value? but we only get value from 6x which is not going to reach the river anyway and we get at most value from the turn which is only going to be $5-8 more.

or is betting weak like my play above better since we might still induce a call from most parts of his range?

also, any hand that will call our AI on river will also raise AI anyway on the river right except for maybe KT right? i doubt any Kx will look us up and i really doubt 6x is getting to the river

anyhow thanks bierbaer for making good detailed hand evaluations. i think alot of people has benefited greatly from your analysis. just want to say THANKS!

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Originally posted by supeyrio
hi bierbaer, can i clarify,you're saying max value line is better for value? but we only get value from 6x which is not going to reach the river anyway and we get at most value from the turn which is only going to be $5-8 more.
Well, you say 6x doesn't get to the river, but 77-99 do. This is not really consistent. Actually against our range 6x is even a better hand than 77 because it has more outs (=> more equity).
So if we say he does get to the river with 99-77 and we could get value vs those, I think we can also assume he gets to the river with 6x.
So I prefer a big bet because I think he will fold 99-77 to a small bet anyway, but with the big bet we get more value vs 6x.

or is betting weak like my play above better since we might still induce a call from most parts of his range?

also, any hand that will call our AI on river will also raise AI anyway on the river right except for maybe KT right? i doubt any Kx will look us up and i really doubt 6x is getting to the river
I don't think so. If he has 76 he's not necessarily going all in - there's not one single worse hand in our range that could call a shove.

anyhow thanks bierbaer for making good detailed hand evaluations. i think alot of people has benefited greatly from your analysis. just want to say THANKS!
You're welcome :).