Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($46)
BB ($17.30)
Hero ($79.25)
UTG+1 ($30.80)
CO ($50)
BTN ($58.85)
Dealt to Hero J♥ J♦
Hero raises to $1.75, fold, CO calls $1.75, fold, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25
FLOP ($7) 8♥ 6♥ 7♥
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks
TURN ($7) 8♥ 6♥ 7♥ 3♠
SB bets $4.50, BB folds, Hero calls $4.50, CO folds
RIVER ($16) 8♥ 6♥ 7♥ 3♠ 4♠
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $3
co 21/19/4, 1khs, sb 24/12/3, 300hs (22% call in blinds), BB unk.
Equilabs says I am marginally ahead on the flop 29% vs 25% combined ranges. Is this enough to bet? Since we have to fold to raise I think checking may be ok here?
I give SB following range for betting turn: {TT-99,55,A9s,A5s,K9s,Q9s,T9s,54s,A9o,AhQh,KhQh,AhTh,KhTh,QhTh,Js9s,Jc9c,Ad8d,As8s,Ac8c,Kd8d,Ks8s,Kc8c,Qd8d,Qs8s,Qc8c,Td8d,Ts8s,Tc8c,9d8d,9s8s,9c8c,8d8s,8d8c,8s8c,Ad7d,As7s,Ac7c,Kd7d,Ks7s,Kc7c,8d7d,8s7s,8c7c,7d7s,7d7c,7s7c,Ad6d,As6s,Ac6c,7d6d,7s6s,7c6c,6d6s,6d6c,6s6c,6d5d,6s5s,6c5c,Ah4h,Ad3d,Ah3h,Ac3c,3d3h,3d3c,3h3c,Ah2h} (phew!)
...against which I have 60%. Actually he probably bets a narrower range, so this is best case. Its enought to call, though.
When he checks on river, first thought is we are ahead and should bet. But Equilabs says its 55%: 45% in my favour only. So we can certainly only bet small to get calls from 99/TT, A8s etc.
Q: should we even bet at all if Eqlabs is right?
thx
Edit: srry, just realised this is NL50 - still, grateful for your highend analysis