Hi,
first I don't understand which player is hero and how he came in the pot.
Here are the facts as I see them: we have mw pot with flush and paired board on the river.2 hands can beat us - A and K flush and full house or quads.We can beat lower flush and bad played trips or sometimes even overpair.I don't agree that "you should probably raise" here because thinking opp and bad opp often call you with better hand or you get push and what you do then?. So 2 options left: call and fold .We are getting pot odds after raise almost 3:1 (we need to win 1 of 4 times to be breakeven or 25%).
Do some pokerstove (I put loosier ranges):
Board: 6c 8c 8h 2h 9c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.774% 38.77% 00.00% 430 0.00 { Qc3c }
Hand 1: 00.000% 00.00% 00.00% 0 0.00 { QQ-TT, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, Kd8d, Kh8h, Ks8s, T8s, A8o }
Hand 2: 61.226% 61.23% 00.00% 679 0.00 { 99-88, 66, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc5c, Kc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, Q9s+, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc7c, Jc6c, Jc5c, Jc4c, Jc3c, Jc2c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc7c, 98s, 9c7c, 9c6c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 8c5c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 7c4c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 5c4c, 5c3c, 5c2c, 4c3c, 4c2c, 3c2c, 98o }
So we can have about 38% equity,we can call.
Also we can do combos analysis (obviously I included more frequent of them):14 Axc +Kxc,6 combos of FH (66 and 99,I think 22 is often fold on flop) and some of lower flushes 8 combos + only 2 combos of trips ( most of them would not raise on this board).So us beat 66% (20/30total), we beat 33%. We can call.
And last but not least is player type (how Barry says math is idiotic).If passive player or decent player raises ,then it's fold without nuts or very strong hand ( you have no nut flush and board is paired),if bad aggressive or overall aggressive and bluffy raises then it's call more often then fold.
Excuse me for my graphomania attack. ♦
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