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[Closed] nl100 Rush JTo - river overbet bluff 2

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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($89.90)
BB ($193)
UTG ($60.60)
UTG+1 ($135)
Hero ($179)
BTN ($390)

Dealt to Hero J♦ T♠

fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.50, fold, SB calls $3, fold

FLOP ($8) 5♥ K♣ 9♥

SB checks, Hero bets $4.50, SB calls $4.50

TURN ($17) 5♥ K♣ 9♥ 6♦

SB checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($17) 5♥ K♣ 9♥ 6♦ A♦

SB checks, Hero bets $25, SB folds

Hero shows J♦ T♠

Hero wins $16.15

villain is unk, not full stacked. 50/10, 10 hands only.

So on flop villains range is pretty wide: any :heart: draw, Kx, 9x, 5x, most pocket pairs, 67, 78, some Ax floats with or without pairs.

When turn is checked through and river too, I think villains range is pretty weak and Kx (without an Ace) is very top of that range, since I assume AK is not in his range. Have to assume he would bet 78 now and any Ax hand he floated flop with since turn went ch/ch.

While we are ahead of some of the missed draws, many will have a pair (eg 67) or be ahead (QT/QJ) so i think its a good spot for a bluff and, again, we would play many of our Ax hands this way.

However, I dont know whether we need to make it so much vs uknown ($17 might do the same job) but I wanted to "make sure" he 'couldnt' call with Kx.

Again, any comments on this spot would be helpful.

edit: my cbet is on the smallish side since unkown (presumed) fish is usually either calling or folding on this type of board and Im not planning on barreling (+no need to balance). is this ok?

thanks


1 reply
Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Cbetsize is fine given he's not fullstacked.

I agree with your line as well (bet-check-bet) because the A is such a good card.
I'm just not sure if the overbet achieves much more than a $15 bet. I think he will sometimes call Kx against the overbet anyway. At the same time he will fold it to the $15 bet sometimes.

For those reasons I think a smaller riverbet has a higher EV.


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