This week we take a look at an extremely sick hand between Toby Lewis and Andrew Robl.
We're lost for words with this one. One of the sickest boards in televised poker history, a questionable flop play from quads that manages to find an opponent holding a house and an astonishing river card. Take a look inside and discuss.
Just in case you're interested in the details: assuming both players have pocket-pairs (obviously of different ranks), there are 48 unknown cards. There are then 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44 ways to deal out the flop, turn, and river, if we take in account the order in which the cards appear on the board.
If we can work out the number of boards that give both players quads, then simply dividing this number by the total number of boards (above) gives the desired fraction, and multiplying this by 100% gives the percentage. To get the number of boards that give quads over quads, we first obtain the number of ways that player A's two quads-outs can appear: they occupy two of the five places on the board, and there are 5 x 4 ways to choose these and deal the two cards into them (five ways to place the first card, four ways to place the second card; again, the order in which the cards appear is important). Similarly player B's two quads-outs can appear in 3 x 2 ways. The last remaining place on the board is then dealt a card in one of 44 different ways.
The desired percentage is therefore
100% x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 44
--------------------------
48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44
which is about 0.00257 %.
That actually seemed kind of high, considering I've seen quads over quads in only two hands (including the one in the video) over a period of a few years as a casual player and I wasn't sitting at the tables concerned; on the other hand I've been dealt a royal flush four times online. But then I worked out that if you're holding two cards to a royal flush, the chance of completing it is
100% x 5 x 4 x 3 x 47 x 46
--------------------------
50 x 49 x 48 x 47 x 46
which is about 0.051%, a lot higher than the chance of seeing quads over quads.
Quick summary (!): the probability of quads over quads is about 1 in 40,000 (and of completing a royal flush is about 1 in 2,000).
Raise on flop with nuts is eather most brilliant or most stupid move. If he felt that Robl could have 99, that was the best move. If not, huge mistake.
Bear in mind that we have no idea how much history there is between these guys. Even if youve seen play each other in the past, they could have played countless hours off camera.
Also, preflop the commentators mention robl is on serious tilt, so BOTH players are trying to take advantage of that fact.
The unspoken dialogue could be this:
Robl: "Im gonna bet my full house coz these guys think in tilting and tryin to steal"
Lewis: "Im gonna raise with my quads coz this guy knows I know hes tilting and I could be restealing with Ace high.
Awesome hand. Kinda like watching a car crash though.
I think it was a big mistake by Lewis to raise the flop. The only hand he could extract value from was 99, all the other hands goes into muck.
Robl's call on the flop wasn't very good also IMHO. If he put his opponent on QX he should have shoved on the flop, it's very likely his opponent is gonna call with trips. Otherwise donk/call looks very strong here and even player with QX might get suspicious, not to mention overpairs (AA-KK) and midpairs (JJ-TT).
Pre Flop:
Not sure how deep Tobes is, but if 40 or less then I think Robl should 3bet with intention of snapping a 4bet. Tobes is knowing to be super aggro and he knows at least that Robl plays high stakes online. Also he has 99, huge hand in this spot, TL is going to be barrelling alot and making life hell for Robl, so playing OOP to TL is going to be super hard as you're gonna have to c/c 3 streets alot fo the time with overcards. (Just FYI I would obv be raising for different reasons that Mike Sexton/Laak - "I woulda raised and folded to a reraise" orly 
Flop:
Robl: I'm not sure if I like the donk lead. I guess it is ok because he is perceived to be on major tilt, but leading here with Qx+ will realllllly slow the action down against Toby's value range, although it could induce raises from his bluffing range where he has air raising on the button. In summary I don't think Toby will like just folding to a donk from Robl here.
Timoshenko: Standard
Toby: Laak "He's never raising here, he's never raising, it would be a horrible play" therefore it isn't DUCY? If he never raises a Queen here nevermind quads, he isn't raising AA/KK, if he raises AA/KK and then Robl jams he is dominated by Robl's value range. Calling here with AA/KK would be insanely more profitable then raising/getting it in. Therefore when he raises here he really is repping nothing, meaning that although he is playing fast his hand is actually very underepped (to what Robl believes) and can get more action on later streets against Ax, J10 (if it gets there) etc. Also think the raise size is perfect.
Robl: I quite liek Robl's call, if you raise you're just hoping Lewis has a Queen. f he does have a Queen we can get the money on a later street, if he doesn't have a QUeen then we keep BOTH HIS VALUE AND BLUFFING range in, meaning it is definitely a caawwwll.
Turn:
Robl: Checking is standard, the way the hand has played
Lewis: Hard to comment because I don't know river stack sizes yet, but I would probably bet small enough so that I could should the river and polarise my range hoping that a 1 pair (2 pair including Queens) type hand makes a hero. Betting biggish leaving a small amount of river isn't as good imo as when you are bluffing (range obv has to be balanced) you are giving the guy better pot odds and in this situation I think having a polarised range is def the best line.
Robl: Quite a hard spot, if you called the flop you would fold the turn with all draws, when you cawl turn you either have a stubborn 9x, or a slowplayed Qx. Calling here means that you are repping a hand that isn't going to fold the river, so maybe scaring Toby from betting. I actually think this spot is the hardest in the whole hand. If you raise then Toby folds all his air and we;ve already established he probably doesn't have KK+ QX+. So I guess I throw in the call.
River:
Robl: He knows that we probably have 9x,Qx, we never ever have a straight draw, but we couuuullld have like 77/88/1010/JJ sometimes. I think checking here would be a big mistake as Toby isn't spewy enough to shove this river with air and knows it's bad. So I obv Jam and hope he does indeed have a weirdly played Qx.
Toby: I probably slowroll :P, but obviously ezzzz cawl.
I think the raise on flop is a very good move because in this situation robl can donk with a good poi or with A something or a pair and the raise with a q should be a stupid move because you are outplaying oppo so if you don't have a q in that spot and the player ip raise do you think he could have a queen? I think no.
For me is muth more suspected a flat call then a raise
Originally posted by pppppp555555
how percents there are that two players will get quads?
50% imo
Originally posted by Alficor1
Originally posted by pppppp555555
how percents there are that two players will get quads?50% imo
+1
they either get quads or not, so chances are 50%/50%
Originally posted by kiromanAAKK
Well, and that's happened live while if it was online ...
live poker is rigged imo
