[Closed] flat mp3bet in utg nl100 bluff semi deep

Nh. If you have a read that his flop raise is weak - which it kinda looks, then 3 streets looks good.

Hard to think his raise is for value since if you donk your draw you'd always call this small raise so rather looks like he tries to get you off mid pairs.

However, one thing I'm not sure about. If you had QQ here - or another set - , would you just call his flop raise and lead turn? Seems like you would actually call and ch/shove turn or 3b the flop.

So I'm not sure if this line max feq - since he might get curious. Not sure, though.

Hm the question is what kind of range he is 3betting preflop anyway.

Given the positions I'd assume it's very polarized, most people in his shoes wouldn't 3bet AQ/AK and even QQ here I guess. The next question is how often he's bluffing - not very often IMO. Of course this is contradictory as AA and KK make up for only 0.9% of total hands and his 3bet is 3% so there have to be some more hands.
Since QQ+,AK make up for 2.56% of total hands I'd say that's probably a good approximation, again I just doubt he's bluff3betting too much in this spot (if he does it at all).
So the call for setvalue is ok imo.

On the flop obviously his AK miss. If we assume he is going to raise AK as a bluff and just call QQ+ to induce, I like the lead a lot (and those assumptions are valid imo).

On the turn I thought about checking, but actually I like a bet for thin value much better because this looks like we're trying to get a cheap river with a FD so he can call AK but he's usually not raising it.

On the river however, I'd check. We pretty much narrowed down his range to exactly AK. I highly doubt he will call a shove with A high, so we can not bet for value.
We can not bet as a bluff either because at this point I don't think there's any better hand that could possibly fold - the worst better hand is KK!
I'd even go for a c/f because I think he's not shoving the AK, of course if you think he does that a c/c is perfectly fine as well.

@tim: lead on the turn with a set is definitely a line i will take when i have a set because i 'know' he's strong but may not go for 3streets since we all know he's only having overpairs at best and we're deep.

@bierbaer: how do you rate our FE on the river? i mean it sucks if he decides to bluff shove his AK or whatever crap since we only look strong taking it all the way to the river instead of checking and we could potentially fold the best hand since he could value bet his hands this way. but then again he could be scared and would not value bet the river with his KK+ either. but not knowing which level he's on, i think it's better to shove the river although we get no value, but we can fold his better hands and need not bluff catch?

The point is we are not folding out better hands.
So shoving is exactly the same as check/calling against a range of {KK,AA} - but he is never calling the shove with AK.
So even if you say he is always checking back AK and always shoves KK+, the result of c/calling and shoving is exactly the same - you get it in vs KK+ in both cases and win vs AK, the only difference is that in case 1 you win at SD and in case 2 he folds.

The second he has even 1 combination of AK in his range that he's shoving the river, our EV is higher by check/calling than by shoving because now he has bluffs in the range we're getting the money in against.

Do you see what I mean?

Originally posted by Bierbaer
The point is we are not folding out better hands.
So shoving is exactly the same as check/calling against a range of {KK,AA} - but he is never calling the shove with AK.
So even if you say he is always checking back AK and always shoves KK+, the result of c/calling and shoving is exactly the same - you get it in vs KK+ in both cases and win vs AK, the only difference is that in case 1 you win at SD and in case 2 he folds.

The second he has even 1 combination of AK in his range that he's shoving the river, our EV is higher by check/calling than by shoving because now he has bluffs in the range we're getting the money in against.

Do you see what I mean?

yes of course. i totally got that. but that's with your assumption is that he's never folding kk+, while i think that he could still fold those. so given a swap in positions, would we call river with kk+?
you also excluded some occasional Qx, maybe AQ(ofc not too much for value and folding vs 4b), that we could be folding out.
since i'm taggish and am expected to fold alot to 3b OOP esp when it's from MP vs my UTG, he's definitely bluff 3b abit more vs me.
point of shoving is that he definitely can fold worse hands, but also better hands Qx KK+, because i could be inclined to fold KK/AA in this spot on the river(is this right or too weakish?)
if he bets on the river, he's super polarize(probably just AA and some bluffs), and when he checks back, we're usually beaten by his value range.

with the above argument, i do see merits in check calling, and i do see merits in shoving what could be the best hand, but could still fold better.
could you point out if anything is wrong with the above's analysis?
if not, i arrive at the comparision between the merits of c/c or bAI. and i'm stuck.

In his shoes I'd not fold KK+ because our small turnbet looks a lot like FD that's trying to get a cheap river.
Even with Qx I'd have a reeeeally hard time getting away from it since the pot is so big and the FD busted.

If you think he will fold some of those, I agree that the shove is better than a check.
But since he still needs to fold ~1/3 of his Qx,KK+ combinations I'm not so sure if it's really the best play. After all you're trying to get him to fold the top of his range - a strong overpair in a 3bet pot - giving him great odds and representing quite some busted draws.

The more I think about it the more I wonder if vs a good player we could even shove here for value vs AK ♦.