[Closed] Nl200Sh: Ak Oop

I think I would bet/call turn. It is not that safe board to just call with set or two pair I would expected aggression on the flop.
He could be floating or slowplaying KK pre-flop. He might simply put you on 99,TT, JJ, since he openraised from BU. I think that even tight player could bet/call with AJ on the BU.

But if your read is right then was good fold. I didn' t play that hand, so can't tell if check/fold on TPTK is right.

I think KK will most likely check behind on the turn, and an A with a moderate kicker as well. I played a decent amount of hands with him and he's a decent player.

From his reads I would even tighten his range to QQ, AQ, Ak and rule out 88.
I think it was well played.

In a 3bet pot HU, i wont get away here.

Its an easy bet/call Turn.

Why? What do you put him on calling my flopbet?

An ace, a flushdraw, KQs.

I don't see KQs or the flushdraw going all in on the turn after I check to him honestly. As I said, he's a decent player. Flushdraws are even more unlikely as he tends to fold suited connectors to threebets. Maybe in a very, very loose mood he could have called with KdJd, but that's just about it. With all drawing and second pair hands he's likely to take the free card on the turn. Aces with a weak kicker are basically the same, except for AQ.
It's quite confusing as I heard numerous times "never to go broke with TPTK". I had to learn it the hard way, but it seems pretty right. And now I'm hearing the opposite.

Originally posted by Timor83
It's quite confusing as I heard numerous times "never to go broke with TPTK". I had to learn it the hard way, but it seems pretty right. And now I'm hearing the opposite.

Well, that depends. In this case, it's a 50/50 decision, both call and fold seem fine to me.
The "never go broke with TPTK" only applies for me in the following situations :
- You have a low TPTK with f.i. A8 on a 8-high board
- There is a flush board or a 3-connector without gaps (567 f.i.) on the table.
- The table is paired and action is big
- You got AK and the table is Ace-picture-picture

Coinflip decision for me are AQ/AK on Ace-picture-rag flops (like this one) or TPTK on a 3-connector board with a single gap (568).

I don't mind paying off a set once in a while ... more often than not you're ahead if none of the above conditions are met. Although I tend to watch out for 2 connecting cards as well (someone in might have his connectors paired)

Well, I do mind to pay off sets actually. And that still doesn't answer this particular question. I still strongly believe no worse hand than me shoves me on the turn. If he was looser in his blindstealing range and weaker postflop, I'd shove the turn here. But he's not, so...

"never go broke with tptk" doesnt apply here because it is a reraised pot.
By checking the turn you are supposed to trap him in case he wants to float you , since you are showing weakness and your flop bet looks like a failed contibet.
Seems to me that you are giving him way too much credit here.

I just chat with Timor on msn and talked about this hand.
Given that Timor states he's a very solid, but standard TAG player, it's easy to really tighten his hand range.

88 is pretty unlikely but possible. (not even call12 preflop)
QQ is as well (would have probably raised flop with flush and gutshot draws possible)
AA-KK can be ruled out (preflop action) as can 66 (flop action)
There are no connectors that could have double paired, so that's unlikely too except for AQ.
Leaving this range at the time he went all-in : AQ-AK-(88)-(QQ)-(semibluff)

He needs to win about 1 in 3 to make it a good call. I think that's about the odds he gets. (Lose to AQ, tie with AK, lose to unlikely 88/QQ, likely win against semibluff/bluff)
So as stated ... a 50/50 call/fold was my conclusion. Let him fold now, he got kicked by variance enough lately, no need to increase it when it's merely a coinflip call.