[FR] h MP3 AKs; calling with overcards

Call the turn, you get 1:12. You're drawing dead only against sets and AA, but CO has lots of weaker overpairs in his range such as 88-TT, QQ and also 66, A7s.

Btw, CO's AF is 2.6, not 0.3.

Thanks Taavi. I usually review the hand much later so i must have misread CO AF. With this corrected, i think i definity should have called the turn then check-fold the river if missed. Even if the AF is 0.3, i think i should have enough outs to call turn. I forgot to look at my own position when determining CO 3Bet range.

as taavi said call the turn once more and fold the river then but its actually no crucial mistake to let it go on the turn since you won't have more than 3,5-4 Outs overall and i don't see co bluffing with just AQ or something. he looks quite reasonable. and BU could also have some A5 A3 holding that reverse dominates you. you should try to define a range for CO and BU and see how much equity is left for your weak overcard draw.

I defined some ranges for CO and BU and ran the result in Equilab. It comes out to be slightly -EV (i.e., -0.0348 BB) but i didn't consider implied odds.
Thank you for your hard work firsttsunami (including other hands).

Board: 5♦7♥3♠ J♦
Equity Win Tie
MP3 8.75% 6.45% 2.30% { AcKc }
CO 63.56% 60.90% 2.66% { 77+, AKs, AJs, AKo, AJo }
BU 27.69% 27.32% 0.36% { JJ-66, AJs, A7s-A2s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo, A7o-A2o, 98o, 87o, 76o }

@pkrhag

Thank you for your Appreciation. always good to get a compliment and a little honour for my work.

equity might be a little different since i don't think that CO does raise with AJ on the flop so that being set your equity might be a little better but thats certainly being compensated by the fact that BU could still have some sets in his hand that you didnt add. he could slowplay those by just coldcalling the flop. overall slight changes won't result in big effects on your equity. it'll stay either slightly +ev or -ev and as being not a big deal its time to concentrate on more important situations. ♠_cool: