NL50 small boat

you can raise bigger for value on the turn, but you don't need to raise bigger to protect. He only has two outs.

But yes, I guess we should be making it more like $21 so that we can shove the River comfortably if villain decides to bluff catch.

River is pretty grotesque but, yes, I guess it can't be anything else than AA

Turn should definitely be raised bigger since his range for barreling there is going to be on the stronger side (overpairs) and thus will call more.

As played I feel it's a good fold as it's hard to imagine him bluffing that river and/or value betting worse.

Why do you raise the turn? Overpairs are going to fold close to 100% of the time - while this is a great spot to bluff it's a very bad one to go for value when you actually have trips+.
So I'd call and hope he for some reason c/calls the river.

Why do you raise the turn? Overpairs are going to fold close to 100% of the time - while this is a great spot to bluff it's a very bad one to go for value when you actually have trips+. So I'd call and hope he for some reason c/calls the river.

Rlly interesting. Never would have considered this.

Well, if villain always b/f his overpairs on the turn then I agree that calling turn must have higher EV since we have some chance of getting an extra bet on river (either from him or us).

But on the other hand, we are 130bb deep with the nuts, so I wonder if we should nevertheless be trying to build the pot?

Once we call twice our hand looks like either 9x (though maybe we have no 9x hands in this posn?), 33 or TT+. What betsize would you aim for on river if checked to? Pot will be $24.75 and villian will have $65.40 behind.

thx

Imo this is one of the spots where we will just not get villain AI with his worse valuehands.

The reasoning that we want to build the pot is not valid - once he folds the pot didn't grow any bigger.

After we called and are checked to on the river I'd make it some amount in the range of 8-14 depending on what I assume about the opponent. As you say we look a lot like either a medium hand that calls for SD-value, or slowplaying trips.
We don't bet the medium hands usually so the more the opponent thinks the smaller we need to make it.

i think vs some players who never fold their kk+ on pair boards, we can get stacks by raising the turn?
ofc with some dynamics we can further justify such play.

I just don't see how we could get stacks in on the turn because the only thing the opponent could do is to call the raise and c/f the river - 3betting turn makes absolutely no sense for him.
Btw I constantly use the call flop - minr turn line on paired boards as a bluff and get a ton of folds - that's my main argument for calling here.