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[Closed] [SH/NL25] QQ vs river shove

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Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($38.75)
BB ($18.87)
Hero ($44.25)
UTG+1 ($12.50)
CO ($37.88)
BTN ($15.12)

Dealt to Hero Q♠ Q♣

Hero raises to $0.90, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.90, fold, fold

FLOP ($2.15) 6♣ 6♠ A♠

Hero bets $1.55, BTN calls $1.55

TURN ($5.25) 6♣ 6♠ A♠ 7♦

Hero bets $3.50, BTN calls $3.50

RIVER ($12.25) 6♣ 6♠ A♠ 7♦ 8♠

Hero checks, BTN bets $9.17 (AI), Hero folds

BTN wins $11.65

Villian over 1600 hands
23/4/1.4/WTS33
Fold cbet flop 44% / fold cbet turn 31%
Agg% flop turn river 18/23/31

I think we can call the river? We can expect us being ahead 50% of the time?


2 replies

Actually you need ~ 30% eq to call here profitably and I think it's a clear fold as I dont see you ahead like ever at this point.

The point in barreling F+T is to get value from draws and worse made hands and on the river every draw hits and villain can have any flush, straight even a fh or 6x and Ax. Dont expect such a passive guy to ever push TT/JJ at this point.


yeah, you´re mostly beat on the river so c/f is fine, but I´m not sure if I like your turn bet.
I would personally try to keep pot small and go to showdown and let him bluff with his missed draws on blank turn and river cards