Hello,
I had hard decision to fold KK preflop to big action 3way ,during hand didn't know my exact equity,only had a hunch that it can be low.
Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:
$0.02/$0.04 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
Known players:
[tg]CO$3.62:///////;BU$7.48:///////;SB (Hero)$8.07:///////;BB$4.58:///////;MP3$4.00:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is SB with K:d, K:s.
MP3 folds, CO raises to $0.16, BU raises to $0.56, Hero raises to $1.25, BB folds, CO raises to $3.62, BU raises to $7.48, Hero folds.
Flop: ($12.39) 9:h, 7:s, 5:h (2 players)
Turn: ($12.39) 3:c (2 players)
River: ($12.39) T:h (2 players)
Final Pot: $12.39.
I didn't had enough sample size (only ~100 hands) on opponents:
No1 raiser vpip 20/pfr 12/af 3,1/ 3bet 0/4bet range 4 (only 2)
No2 3beter -32/12/1,5 3bet 3,2 (350 hands), 4bet range 4,2(8 hands);
My image normal tag.
For theory discussion sake let's assume that they have tightest ranges,at least one of them should have AA.I assumed 2 ranges :I - AA ( 6 combos+ KK 1 combo cos I have KK) and II- AA (1 combo if opp I have AA,+KK 1 combo+rest AK+QQ).
Equity:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.946% 81.71% 00.23% 50371344 142614.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 18.054% 17.82% 00.23% 10986372 142614.00 { KK }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.884% 68.46% 00.42% 9378330 57670.00 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 31.116% 30.70% 00.42% 4204762 57670.00 { AdKd, AhKh, AcKd, AcKh, AdKh, AhKd, AsKd, AsKh }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 02.17% 47.83% 223260 4913652.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 50.000% 02.17% 47.83% 223260 4913652.00 { KK }
Main question how to calculate my cumulative equity against those 2 ranges?
My try (I'm not math guy so ...... ♦)
vs Ist range (16%KK (cos 1 combo left of 6 possible)+ 84%AA)= 0.16x0.5+ 0.84x0.178=0.229=22.9%
vs IInd range (16% KK+16% AA+68% AK+QQ)=0.16x0.5+0.16x0.178+0.68x 0.68=0.57=57%
So 50% of the time we have 22.9% equity and other 50% we have 57%,
so overall our equity should be 0.5x0.229+0.5x0.57=0.39=39%
Pot odds to call is 2:1 (I need 33% to be break even)
but pokerstove says :
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.611% 12.34% 03.27% 12515509 3319668.67 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 71.280% 67.44% 03.84% 68410482 3892605.67 { AA, KcKh }
Hand 2: 13.109% 12.28% 00.83% 12453447 844083.67 { AcAs, KcKh, QQ, AcKc, AhKh, AcKh, AdKc, AdKh, AhKc, AsKc, AsKh }
Q:1)are my calcs right?
2) what to do in situation like this?(when you strongly suspect that one of them have AA).
3) how to calculate cumulative equity?
4)any thoughts on other possible ranges
Thanks for long reading and answers. ![]()
very