Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:
€0.25/€0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
Known players:
[tg]CO€125.20:///////;BU€16.45:///////;SB (Hero)€50.00:///////;BB€25.00:///////;UTG2€46.70:///////;MP1€108.75:///////;MP2€50.00:///////;Villain45.70:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is SB with J:d, J:c.
3 folds, MP3 calls €0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to €2.50, BB folds, MP3 calls €2.00.
Flop: (€5.5) 3:s, 4:d, 3:h (2 players)
Hero bets €3.75, MP3 calls €3.75.
Turn: (€13) 5:h (2 players)
Hero bets €8.50, MP3 calls €8.50.
River: (€30) A:d (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets €30.95, Hero folds, MP3 gets uncalled bet back.
Final Pot: $30
Villain is 31/6 AF 1.4 after 170hands.
He probably always has me beat on river given his AF.
Question is, is there probability that he can still turn some busted fds into a bluff(small sample and AF issue) so it would be better to b/f river like 1/3 pot or less maybe?