[Closed] NL200 AQ OOP vs nit 140bb deep

I think we have to fold pre, if your range is correct, but if we decide to call we have to go with our hand. Folding TPTK in 3bet pots sucks. What else do we want to flop then ? On the river he has AA-KK for value and sometimes AK as bluff. When you check T&R you always have some marginal value hand, like JJ,AQ... Shoving could bet better than normal sizing here, coz our calling range doesn't change so much IMO.

Originally posted by klimbo
Warning: Extra long post, sorry in advance!
Np, don't be sorry ;).

Villain is 18/13/2.6% 3bet 1.6 agg; 68% fold to 3bet over 1.6k hands

I guess I could have ended my misery by folding it preflop,
I agree with the fold preflop, but it is not because we will "get in tough spots", but because I think the call is -EV.

but I am too stubborn to do that I have a bit of history with villain, a few minutes earlier in a similar situation I flatted in the SB with AKs to his BB 3-bet. He c-bet a 557 flop and I c/r having flopped the nut flush draw (we were 180bb deep), he 3-bet the flop committing half of his stack and I shoved to which he folded, claiming to have KK... I dunno if I believe that, but I feel like he may be trying to get back at me now.
He might or might not try to bluff you, but vs most ranges you're still not in a great spot and since he is so tight in general you will always end up in a pure guessing game which usually means you make mistakes - and those mistakes will be pretty big ones considering you're OOP and the pot is already >25BB on the flop.

Anyways in the current hand considering his 2.6% 3-bet his range is TT+ AQs+.
If you assume this, you definitely have to fold preflop. Vs TT+,AQ+ you have 35% equity so from this point of view you could make a thin call, but given that you're OOP and that he will play pretty much perfectly with his range against AQ, this is a clear fold.

When he pots the flop I still think he may have KK or AA, but I can't fold to one bet, so I call.
Once we got to the flop I agree, there's no sense in folding.

The check back on the turn made me suspicious, but since he seems nitty I wouldn't be surprised if he did that with AA or KK.
Again I agree, AA and KK might be too afraid to bet because they are afraid of a checkraise.
However, there's also AK, JJ and TT in his range.
Now on the river when he overbet shoves I pretty much time banked forever and I couldn't put him on a hand.
Well this is hard to say, it should be QQ (value) or AK (bluff).I very much doubt any NL200 player would turn JJ or TT into a bluff here.
Also it's tough to shove KK and AA here, so I think only few players would do that (if any).

Arguments for calling:
- I feel he would never do that with KK or AA... it just makes no sense to check back the turn and then overbet the river
- AQ... no way too nitty to do that
- JJ, TT .. he has showdown value, wouldn't shove
- QQ... maybe, but very unlikely to have that hand and pot the flop with top set on such a dry board, he will kill any action
- AK bluff... possibly considering that my line is weak, and I could fold AQ, KQ, JJ or TT to the river overbet
- he never has a flush as I hold the A of diamonds and there are no other hands with diamonds in his range
- hands such as 66, 33, 55 are out of the question, he is never 3betting those preflop

Arguments for folding:
- he is a nit, what am I thinking, he would never commit 140bb without the nuts!

I have thought about this hand for a day now, and I know its almost certainly a fold against a nit, but what on earth could he play like that???

Imo it's a fold on the river simply because as you say he's a nit and nits rarely bluff - and if they do they don't overbetshove for more than an entire stack.
Imo QQ is by far the most likely hand here.

Wow, thank you for the extremely good analysis!!!

I agree with 100% of what you said. On the river I was sure he is not pushing AA or KK, so the only hand he could be betting for value is QQ and given that there is only 1 combo of QQ possible I was really confused by his play. So I tanked forever and called and he showed QQ. In hindsight, awful call, but at the time I could only put him on one particular hand from his entire range and it seemed too unlikely for him to have that... oh well so long for that theory

Thanks again for the feedback Bierbaer, really appreciate it!

Note to self: Never hero call a nit