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[Closed] NL10 - MSS, AK in MP2, raise in multiway

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BadeaCelRau
Joined: 15.10.2010

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

Known players:
[tg]UTG2$9.14:///////;MP1$7.51:///////;MP2 (Hero)$4.00:///////;MP3$10.09:///////;CO$11.61:///////;BU$15.21:///////;SB$3.40:///////;BB$3.50:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K:s, A:h.
UTG2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.50, 2 folds, BB calls $0.40, MP1 calls $0.40.

Flop: ($2.05) Q:s, 2:s, K:d (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.50, CO raises to $3.00, BB folds, MP1 folds, Hero folds, CO gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: $3.55.

Villain stats in 1115 hands :
11(vpip)/9(pfr)/67(f 3bet)/26(steal)
58(fcbet)/33(f 2nd barrel)/27(wtsd)/2.3(af)
call open : 5%; 3bet 3%

I think this regular shows much strength when he raises and I don't think he is doing it with KJ so his range is probably : KQ,22, +/-AK which he might 3bet or not (I think he is a standard BSSer)

This is the equity, and the pot odds are 2/9 (22%) so the call is kinda close but I'm not sure about his range and his minraise, instead of going allin, what could be the message?

Board: K♦Q♠2♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP3    29.09%   9.84%  19.25% { AhKs }
CO     70.91%  51.66%  19.25% { 22, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }


2 replies
burek2000
Joined: 16.11.2007

Hey BadeaCelRau,

Without any reads I prefer to fold to his minraise. If he does raise with AK as well then your all-in is slightly +EV while if he only does so with 22, KQ and QQ+ then your call is -EV a lot. So, I would prefer to avoid the variance and potential -EV move by bet/folding.

By the way, I say he could have QQ+ here because if he is good reg he won't 3-bet those hands preflop in order to keep the fish(MP1) in the pot.

Best regards,
burek2000


BadeaCelRau
Joined: 15.10.2010

Yeah, this hand haunted me for the rest of the day and eventually I reached the conclusion that QQ is certainly in the range, maybe even KK, AA.


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