Bankroll and Downswings

_Anonymous_

08.02.2008, 03:57 0

Here's a small thought. PS advises 50 buyins for any given limit right? But we know swings of 20 and 30 buyins will and do happen. So if you just made 50 buyins for your next level should you really be moving up with the chance of a downswing that could force you back down a limit? WHat are the actual risks for a downswing to happen? Any general odds out there? I've played almost 400 games at my limit and I've had one major downswing which happened at about 115 games.

Discussion? How often do you have downswings? How severe are they? Do you stick to the 50 BI BRM or do you try to have some extra in reserve?

23 replies

chenny8888

Joined: 03.10.2007

Posts: 17,729

08.02.2008, 06:18 0

move down once you hit 40 BI, imo. and of course size of downswings depend on player skills, and turbo/regular

chenny8888 / hav0c (my online nick) / "you are such a luckbox" (my live poker nick):

//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngSNG Bronze Hand Evaluations ||https://d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngFeedback to my SNG Bronze coaching
//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngVideos I did for PokerStrategy.com: https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-bronze.png Bronze videos || https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-silver.png Silver videos || https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-gold.pngGold videos
//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngNew Zealand (AOTEAROA - THE LAND OF THE LONG WHITE CLOUD)

_Anonymous_

08.02.2008, 07:09 0

"50 BI" - You mean SSS of course?

You sound cautious / disciplined enough to move up when you reach 50 BI. (The discipline is in ability to move back if you lose a certain amount). As chenny suggested, move down when you hit 40 BI, or set even more conservative stop-loss limit - allocate 6 BI to lose, or even 3.

The only reason not try the new limit is if you are not certain you can psychologically accept returning to lower limit.

chenny8888

Joined: 03.10.2007

Posts: 17,729

08.02.2008, 14:44 0

no, we mean single table sit and gos (I HOPE!)

chenny8888 / hav0c (my online nick) / "you are such a luckbox" (my live poker nick):

//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngSNG Bronze Hand Evaluations ||https://d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngFeedback to my SNG Bronze coaching
//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngVideos I did for PokerStrategy.com: https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-bronze.png Bronze videos || https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-silver.png Silver videos || https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-gold.pngGold videos
//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngNew Zealand (AOTEAROA - THE LAND OF THE LONG WHITE CLOUD)

_Anonymous_

08.02.2008, 14:59 0

Originally posted by chenny8888
move down once you hit 40 BI, imo. and of course size of downswings depend on player skills, and turbo/regular

no, youre just a luckbox :p. I move down with less then 100 BI's.

_Anonymous_

08.02.2008, 18:00 0

Originally posted by chenny8888
move down once you hit 40 BI, imo. and of course size of downswings depend on player skills, and turbo/regular

Wow, great evolution! Btw, what software did you use to generate the graph?

_Anonymous_ Topic starter

08.02.2008, 18:27 0

Nice graph chenny What limit do you play?

100 buyins for nick at his limit is understandable. Think it's wise to gradually increase your BIs as you move up the limits or is it more of a binary situation? As in you reach a certain limit and suddenly need more BIs for effective BRM?

Good stuff thanks guys.

Unam

Joined: 17.08.2006

Posts: 7,434

08.02.2008, 20:07 0

Originally posted by chenny8888
move down once you hit 40 BI, imo. and of course size of downswings depend on player skills, and turbo/regular

I can't see any swings.

chenny8888

Joined: 03.10.2007

Posts: 17,729

09.02.2008, 02:33 0

2 month breakeven swing

chenny8888 / hav0c (my online nick) / "you are such a luckbox" (my live poker nick):

//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngSNG Bronze Hand Evaluations ||https://d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngFeedback to my SNG Bronze coaching
//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngVideos I did for PokerStrategy.com: https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-bronze.png Bronze videos || https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-silver.png Silver videos || https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-gold.pngGold videos
//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngNew Zealand (AOTEAROA - THE LAND OF THE LONG WHITE CLOUD)

_Anonymous_ Topic starter

09.02.2008, 04:27 0

Originally posted by chenny8888
2 month breakeven swing

Surely a swing needs a direction?

chenny8888

Joined: 03.10.2007

Posts: 17,729

09.02.2008, 04:50 0

sure. i am really really good at poker so my expected ROI is something like 120%, and my results are closer to 0%.

so downswing.

chenny8888 / hav0c (my online nick) / "you are such a luckbox" (my live poker nick):

//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngSNG Bronze Hand Evaluations ||https://d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngFeedback to my SNG Bronze coaching
//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngVideos I did for PokerStrategy.com: https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-bronze.png Bronze videos || https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-silver.png Silver videos || https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-gold.pngGold videos
//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngNew Zealand (AOTEAROA - THE LAND OF THE LONG WHITE CLOUD)

_Anonymous_

09.02.2008, 16:56 0

120% ROI?!?! Well...good luck.

_Anonymous_

09.02.2008, 17:15 0

Originally posted by DrFunk
120% ROI?!?! Well...good luck.

you dont need luck if your ROI is 120

_Anonymous_

19.03.2008, 12:22 0

From what I have read on the subject, bankroll swings should be much smaller playing SNGs as opposed to cash games. I have only played about 80 SNGs so far, so I cannot provide an accurate long term example in my case of a downswing, but I'm sure I will see one eventually. I have only twice thus far gone 4 straight SNGs without cashing (I have yet to attempt multitabling btw) and on both of those occasions followed those drops with a 1st place finish in the next one, effectively neutralizing those two mini drops. I am sure that I will encounter longer droughts when I move up beyond the $10+$1 level I am presently playing. The +EV is pretty good at this stake, but the ROI is still pretty low. I look at it as I am at least earning while I am learning.

I am getting close to affording the $20+$2s soon, but I would prefer to have at least 60 buyins in my bankroll before making the move to the $20s, $30s, and $50s. That way I can have a little more chance of being able to stay at a new level and learn to beat it while dealing with the inevitable downswings.

chenny8888

Joined: 03.10.2007

Posts: 17,729

19.03.2008, 12:49 0

no SNG is much much more swingy than cash...

chenny8888 / hav0c (my online nick) / "you are such a luckbox" (my live poker nick):

//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngSNG Bronze Hand Evaluations ||https://d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngFeedback to my SNG Bronze coaching
//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngVideos I did for PokerStrategy.com: https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-bronze.png Bronze videos || https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-silver.png Silver videos || https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-gold.pngGold videos
//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngNew Zealand (AOTEAROA - THE LAND OF THE LONG WHITE CLOUD)

_Anonymous_

20.03.2008, 16:09 0

I find the direct opposite to be the case. If you lose a few SNGs, one win gets them all back. It is much harder to recover those losses as quickly in cash games. I had swings of hundreds of $ in $25 max buyin cash games and I have yet to have even a single downswing of more than 3 buyins in 80 SNGs so far, and I am playing the $20+$2s now.

chenny8888

Joined: 03.10.2007

Posts: 17,729

20.03.2008, 16:17 0

lol, well... gl keeping that record up

you will really need it (sry but it's so true :()

ask any 1000+samplesize player

chenny8888 / hav0c (my online nick) / "you are such a luckbox" (my live poker nick):

//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngSNG Bronze Hand Evaluations ||https://d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngFeedback to my SNG Bronze coaching
//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngVideos I did for PokerStrategy.com: https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-bronze.png Bronze videos || https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-silver.png Silver videos || https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-gold.pngGold videos
//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngNew Zealand (AOTEAROA - THE LAND OF THE LONG WHITE CLOUD)

_Anonymous_

20.03.2008, 17:15 0

I am assuming those players that playing 1000 SNGs are multitabling. That WILL greatly increase your fluctuation due to the high quantity of tables causing a poor quality of play. I only play 4 or 5 SNGs a night and I cash in at least 3 of those every night. I have around 50 cashes out of 80 so far. It may take me alot longer to play 1000 SNGs, but with careful attention to each and every one, I fully intend to cash in 600 out of those 1000. Quality is underrated!!!

chenny8888

Joined: 03.10.2007

Posts: 17,729

21.03.2008, 03:36 0

meh; i played 4 at a time and i don't think i missed out on any reads, etc. i think i played pretty optimally.

my stats from startracker:

Turbo NL Hold'em $15+$1 9-player 221games 32%ROI 45%ITM $1148
Turbo NL Hold'em $6+$0.50 9-player 200games 42%ROI 50%ITM $546

where ROI = return on investment, and ITM = in the money

i'd say that's pretty similar results to what you have.... and yet i'm here saying it's more swingier...

chenny8888 / hav0c (my online nick) / "you are such a luckbox" (my live poker nick):

//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngSNG Bronze Hand Evaluations ||https://d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngFeedback to my SNG Bronze coaching
//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngVideos I did for PokerStrategy.com: https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-bronze.png Bronze videos || https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-silver.png Silver videos || https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/plugins/pst-forum/assets/images/legacy-status/status-xs-gold.pngGold videos
//d3ltpfxjzvda6e.cloudfront.net/Editorial/elements/ps_image_arrow_link.pngNew Zealand (AOTEAROA - THE LAND OF THE LONG WHITE CLOUD)

_Anonymous_

21.03.2008, 14:10 0

This greater variance you experience in SNGs as opposed to cash games must have something to do with you possessing well above average postflop skills. This would give you a greater opportunity to exploit cash games for profit as opposed to SNGs.

Since SNGs have a constant stucture that precludes the variables that are involved in cash game play (players coming and going, table pace changing suddenly), they are theoretically by nature less variant a game type than cash games. So less variance in the structure of the SNG game should naturally lead to less variance in bankroll swings. Your experience would appear to be an exception to this.

[Closed] Bankroll and Downswings