[Closed] NL 200 calling min5b

IMO not rly, I dont know the exact numbers (I should- I can potentially calculate them w comibatorics and stuff) but u dont have the correct implieds and even if it was clsoe, u have K-> reverse implieds if u had 78s that could be a lot betteer

To get the exact EV you need the concept of conditional probability, i.e. you want the probability of one card in the flop being a K or a 9 and one or 2 of the others being a K or a 9 as well under the condition that the first card was a K or a 9 already.

But on balance I don't think you gain much by calculating this as the spot occurs so seldomly and you can approximate the result easily.

What I did was simply putting K9o vs KK+ in the equilab:

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    11.31%  10.96%   0.35% { K9o }
MP3    88.69%  88.35%   0.35% { KK+ }

Since we need to flop the 2pair specifically on the flop, and we'll not continue in scenarios where we f.e. have a GS and therefore some equity, I'd estimate that our "real" equity (the one that includes us folding on a lot of flops) is probably 5%-6%.
So imo we need something like 16:1-20:1 odds to make the call - presuming the opponent never folds even on something like a KKx board.

Since we're not even close to that (even the full stacks including the pot give us less than 10:1) it's an easy fold preflop imo.