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[Closed] OK now... how is this even possible??? 7.8 million "upswing"?

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blackops888
Joined: 25.04.2010

Truth is I don't think this guy is on an upswing. He has figured something. His name is Ben Grundy...

First of all, he is playing 221 hands/day on average according to the info on the graph. Is he 1-tabling and max-exploiting everyone? What happens?

Here you got his results...

Is he never getting into virtual flips with top set vs nut flush-draw on the flop? Is he never getting the worst when he is a 2:1 favorite? What you guys think this dude has found???

I'm really curious, even read his blog and all... :f_biggrin:


26 replies

he had downsings too


BigOVERBET
Joined: 23.11.2010

where did you find this immortal shaolin monk...this is graph is so sick that it looks real fake:S


Gerovit
Joined: 16.01.2011

This is his worst session ever and he is still up 7.7 mil.... took him 5,5 years for this though...i would be happy with 25 years

http://milkybarkids.blogspot.com/


BigOVERBET
Joined: 23.11.2010

i will read his blog and see later..pretty awesome but also strange stuff


How do I earn 7+ mil in 5 years?

:f_cool:


Gerovit
Joined: 16.01.2011

Originally posted by PkrPlyr2k11
How do I earn 7+ mil in 5 years?

:f_cool:

You could rob a bank :f_confused:


blackops888
Joined: 25.04.2010

Yeah guys... but what about the average of 221 hands/day???? Is he playing just one table and crushing everyone in it?


Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Well, that 221 hands a day is average. He might 4 table for 1-2 hours per day, 4 times a week.

Hard to say about upswing as I can't see what stakes he is playing. But there are some swing too.

You guys realize that HEM screenshots are VERY easy to manipulate. They can show whatever you want them to show. Like there where are his worst sessions, it shows "3 tabling PLO200 for 55mins, 57 hands". Doesn't really add up.

I dont' say he's fake, but usually if someone wants to brag, it's much more convincing to show PTR stats or something similar.

note: Look at his VPIP stats. Pretty high. When you manipulate HEM with filters (like dropping some lost pots) to give you better winnings, the VPIP goes up.

If someone wants, I can show how easy it is to manipulate HEM. I made an example for Girah's thread in our Finnish community.


Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

I had some time so I did it anyways.

Basicly I just collected some screennames and put them all under one alias (Ihmelapsi). Here is what it looks like before filtering:

Then I just filtered just the hands they won. Here is what it looks like after that:

This all took 5mins. So if someone wants to make nice stats/graphs, it's not that hard. You can see how the VPIP went up.

The reason I posted this is just simple warning. You should know how easy it is to manipulate HEM stats. So don't take everything as 100% proof. Also, if those screenshots are cut so that they don't show VPIP/PFR etc, you should smell that something is wrong (like with Girah's screenshots). Or they are cut so that filters are not shown.

Of course it is still pretty easy to use photoshop so that even with VPIP/PFR and filters are shown, it could be fake. Always trust PTR more than HEM/PT screenshots.

edit: here is PTR graph for his Ben Grundy nickname winnings for Full Tilt:

I don't know when he has played those millions, but after Jan 21st 2008, he has played only 9K hands on Full Tilt, with average winrate of 3,36bb/100. Of course he might have played those millions before 2008, or he could have played +300K hands on other sites. But unless he gives the screennames for those accounts, there is no way he can give 100% proof about his winnings.


supeyrio
Joined: 11.11.2009

ptr is quite off, just realised this recently... its probably a better gauge then some possible doctored evidence though


Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

I love this monoloque :)

I took a quick look at his blog. Looks like he is high stakes player, so making 7M in 3 years is not that difficult. But making 7M in 320K hands is pretty hard. Unless you hit an upswing.

I looked more about this kid, and he has won over half a million in tournaments. He also claimed that he won over 2M in 2007-2008 at Betfair. He says his VPIP is 80%, which sound pretty strange. There might be a lot of fishes in Betfair (high roller gamblers), but VPIP 80% is just sick.

His nickname in Betfair is "bennyboi", but PTR couldn't find it. I think they don't support PLO for Betfair.

He might be telling the truth. Of he might be telling the truth with little bit of "sugaring" on top of it. :)

And with VPIP80 he might be true poker prodigy, or just one lucky ****. :)


BigOVERBET
Joined: 23.11.2010

or he is god


Zhusy
Joined: 17.01.2010

Originally posted by BigOVERBET
or he is god

Maybe Chuck Norris?

Chuck Norris can beat a Royal Flush with a set of 2.


blackops888
Joined: 25.04.2010

Originally posted by Kyyberi
I love this monoloque :)

I took a quick look at his blog. Looks like he is high stakes player, so making 7M in 3 years is not that difficult. But making 7M in 320K hands is pretty hard. Unless you hit an upswing.

I looked more about this kid, and he has won over half a million in tournaments. He also claimed that he won over 2M in 2007-2008 at Betfair. He says his VPIP is 80%, which sound pretty strange. There might be a lot of fishes in Betfair (high roller gamblers), but VPIP 80% is just sick.

His nickname in Betfair is "bennyboi", but PTR couldn't find it. I think they don't support PLO for Betfair.

He might be telling the truth. Of he might be telling the truth with little bit of "sugaring" on top of it. :)

And with VPIP80 he might be true poker prodigy, or just one lucky ****. :)

I don't know where I read it, maybe here on the news section of ps.com, that this guy may have "solved" PLO...

Whatever this means, of couse.. _confused:


Darkzzz
Joined: 28.06.2009

Well he has 13bb/100 which is not really out of the realm of possibilities. And with alot of bumhunting it should be possible I guess.


Originally posted by Kyyberi
I love this monoloque :)

I took a quick look at his blog. Looks like he is high stakes player, so making 7M in 3 years is not that difficult. But making 7M in 320K hands is pretty hard. Unless you hit an upswing.

I looked more about this kid, and he has won over half a million in tournaments. He also claimed that he won over 2M in 2007-2008 at Betfair. He says his VPIP is 80%, which sound pretty strange. There might be a lot of fishes in Betfair (high roller gamblers), but VPIP 80% is just sick.

His nickname in Betfair is "bennyboi", but PTR couldn't find it. I think they don't support PLO for Betfair.

He might be telling the truth. Of he might be telling the truth with little bit of "sugaring" on top of it. :)

And with VPIP80 he might be true poker prodigy, or just one lucky ****. :)

he is confirmed legit and a complete sicko.

well known on the UK poker scene for just crushing.


blackops888
Joined: 25.04.2010

Originally posted by MarcPS

Originally posted by Kyyberi
I love this monoloque :)

I took a quick look at his blog. Looks like he is high stakes player, so making 7M in 3 years is not that difficult. But making 7M in 320K hands is pretty hard. Unless you hit an upswing.

I looked more about this kid, and he has won over half a million in tournaments. He also claimed that he won over 2M in 2007-2008 at Betfair. He says his VPIP is 80%, which sound pretty strange. There might be a lot of fishes in Betfair (high roller gamblers), but VPIP 80% is just sick.

His nickname in Betfair is "bennyboi", but PTR couldn't find it. I think they don't support PLO for Betfair.

He might be telling the truth. Of he might be telling the truth with little bit of "sugaring" on top of it. :)

And with VPIP80 he might be true poker prodigy, or just one lucky ****. :)

he is confirmed legit and a complete sicko.

well known on the UK poker scene for just crushing.

Guy is legitimate, actually. He is a well recognized player who has found SOMETHING... I mean... some way of playing the game without getting caught in high variance spots.

Or just a psychic with a lot of intuitive talent (a skill acquired by training or even unconsciously).


Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

I know that he is real. The questions is, are his winnings real?

But what makes anyone think he plays variance-free? In that graph there are some big swings too.


blackops888
Joined: 25.04.2010

Originally posted by Kyyberi
I know that he is real. The questions is, are his winnings real?

But what makes anyone think he plays variance-free? In that graph there are some big swings too.

It is not variance-free, once he even reports some hard downswings in his own blog... but somehow he managed to play for 1400+ days without having huge swings. That's minimizing the thing, not eliminating, and the way he minimized it was really noteworthy. That's the point, got it?