[Closed] TPTK in 3b pot, semi deep vs fish

IMO you see 9x or better 95% of time.
Snap-fold for me.

Originally posted by z1pz0r
IMO you see 9x or better 95% of time.
Snap-fold for me.

The more i think about the river call the more i hate it. I agree, damn why am i such a fish. Guess i putted too much thought into his timing and previous fish tendencies.

This type of fish is never jaming AQ here. He played it passive on the first 3 streets what makes you think his all the sudden going agro with AQ.

This is also the dryest flop ever so there isnt a single missed draw here and by jamming he gives you a chance to fold a hand you would always be betting here.

As for the sizing i think you have to make it 15 on the flop and 35 on the turn against a fish that will never get enough hands on you to get a betsizing read. That way you make sure he feels commited with any Ax he can have on the river.

Ya I fold, think at any limit when fish donk shoves riv on dry board they alw have it

Originally posted by MatejM47
This type of fish is never jaming AQ here. He played it passive on the first 3 streets what makes you think his all the sudden going agro with AQ.

This is also the dryest flop ever so there isnt a single missed draw here and by jamming he gives you a chance to fold a hand you would always be betting here.

As for the sizing i think you have to make it 15 on the flop and 35 on the turn against a fish that will never get enough hands on you to get a betsizing read. That way you make sure he feels commited with any Ax he can have on the river.

Thank you for commenting, and yeah agree with everything you said

Originally posted by z1pz0r
IMO you see 9x or better 95% of time.
Snap-fold for me.

I tend to agree, it's pretty hard to see a bluff and at the same time it's pretty hard to come up with a value hand that is worse and shove for value here, which makes this a fold.

Being this deep and not knowing villain tendencies I would probably make it $10, which is a rather small difference with your pre-flop sizing. For what is worth, having position on this opponent I will be looking to 3bet him a lot so I don't want to give away anything with my 3bet size and thus I go for a standard $10 size in position and probably $12 out of position.

Guess i learned my lesson???

Villain 53/4 0,4 aggfactor, 52 hands

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
Prima
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($155.55)
UTG+1 ($115.96)
CO ($118.74)
mathhnes (BTN) ($163.16)
SB ($99)
BB ($141.84)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) mathhnes is BTN Q♦ Q♣
UTG raises to $2, 2 folds, mathhnes raises to $10, 2 folds, UTG calls $10

Flop: 4♠ J♥ 7♣ ($21.50, 2 players)
UTG checks, mathhnes bets $13, UTG calls $13

Turn: 6♣ ($47.50, 2 players)
UTG checks, mathhnes bets $28, UTG goes all-in $132.55, mathhnes folds

Final Pot: $208.05

UTG wins $205.05 (net +$49.50)

mathhnes lost $51

Or did i?

double post

I think its a super easy fold. I mean do you really expect a 0.4 af guy to jam draws on the turn? Very unlikely. What does he do when he has AJ? I think 90% of the time his calling you down 3 streets.

Now even if he does jam the turn with some draws you still don't have the odds to call. You need about 33% equity to make the turn call.

So even if his pushing turn with some draws, then what draws he can actully have? Basically 89cc and 9Tcc that floated the flop and JcXc. Now even if you put J8cc+ in his range you still only have 28% so its still -EV to call.

You pretty much have to be against a maniac to call this.

Originally posted by MatejM47
I think its a super easy fold. I mean do you really expect a 0.4 af guy to jam draws on the turn? Very unlikely. What does he do when he has AJ? I think 90% of the time his calling you down 3 streets.

Now even if he does jam the turn with some draws you still don't have the odds to call. You need about 33% equity to make the turn call.

So even if his pushing turn with some draws, then what draws he can actully have? Basically 89cc and 9Tcc that floated the flop and JcXc. Now even if you put J8cc+ in his range you still only have 28% so its still -EV to call.

You pretty much have to be against a maniac to call this.

Since this seems to be the most obvious fold, (which it isnt to me) this has to be a huge leak in my game. Got to think more about this then. Thank you very much

i snapcall the QQ anyday
since when do u fold overpairs in 3b pots to 53/4 fish

edit: nvm just saw we're a bit deeper, but still i'm inclined to call

snap-fold for me.

Originally posted by Southofheaven
i snapcall the QQ anyday
since when do u fold overpairs in 3b pots to 53/4 fish

edit: nvm just saw we're a bit deeper, but still i'm inclined to call

What do you put this guy on once he jams 130bbs on the turn and his AF is 0.4?

Do you really think he goes crazy agro all the sudden here with just a J which is the only hand you beat? He would really have to be a very stupid fish to think AJ is the nuts.

Yeah you can say he could just pick up some combo draw but this guy will call all his combo draws here like 99% of the time.

Why not fold overpairs to a 53/4/0.4 fish just because its a 3-bet pot ? I mean this guy is as passive as it gets and once those guys show some agression you only have a 1pair hand and it won't be good 90% of the time, especially if they c/r the turn they either have the nuts or what they percieve to be the nuts.

well, first of all, i would -completely- ignore aggro factor just because its rly irrelevant for 40-50 hands, maybe he just had underpairs the whole time and took passive lines, the 0.4 aggro factor doesnt mean anything to me on that sample size.
the only thing we know for sure from stats is that he's a fish from his vpip/pfr. and fish tend to play super scared money all the time so i assume it's in his repertoir to c/ship a ton of weaker hands, i've seen fish ship even TT/99 in this spot cause they're clueless about their hand value. as i said, 130bb deep it's a bit of a close spot, but u rly cant say 'easy snapfold'. also the dynamic between op/fish matters a lot, so there's def no perfect answer to this.
maybe im a spewtard but i call this. would like to hear some other opinions too tho

Originally posted by MatejM47
This type of fish is never jaming AQ here. He played it passive on the first 3 streets what makes you think his all the sudden going agro with AQ.

This is also the dryest flop ever so there isnt a single missed draw here and by jamming he gives you a chance to fold a hand you would always be betting here.

As for the sizing i think you have to make it 15 on the flop and 35 on the turn against a fish that will never get enough hands on you to get a betsizing read. That way you make sure he feels commited with any Ax he can have on the river.

+1
The bigger betsizing was also the first thing that came to my mind, we want to set up stacksizes to be able to shove ourselves.

@QQ hand
W/o further reads I'm b/folding the turn, too. For 100BB I'm probably going broke because I see a possibility that he gets it in with some AJ/KJ type hand that he considers to be the nuts.
Btw I don't look at the AF for this (I basically never use it), observing how the opponent plays is much more valuable for a spot like this imo.
He can f.e. have the same AF in both of the following scenarios:
a) He always raises TPTK+
b) He always slowplays any made hand and any draw, but bluffraises pure air occasionally.

Obv we perform very differently against the 2 raisingranges even though his stats look exactly the same.