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[Closed] PLO25 understanding play line of opponent

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PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

BB ($13.90)
UTG ($72.55)
MP ($25)
CO ($58.05)
Hero (Button) ($25)
SB ($16.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, 6, K, 8
1 fold, MP bets $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, MP calls $1.25

Flop: ($4.35) 9, 7, A (2 players)
MP bets $2.48, Hero calls $2.48

Turn: ($9.31) Q (2 players)
MP bets $5.31, Hero calls $5.31

River: ($19.93) 10 (2 players)
MP bets $15.21 (All-In), Hero calls $15.21 (All-In)

Total pot: $50.35 | Rake: $2
Main pot: $50.35 between MP and Hero, won by Hero

Results:
Hero had K, 6, K, 8 (straight, ten high).
MP had 4, 3, Q, Q (three of a kind, Queens).
Outcome: Hero won $48.35

Stats of opponent : 44/20/5.9/2.8/29 - VPIP/PFR/3Bet/AF/WTS
Does play line of opponent represent nut straight?


2 replies
Ribbo
Joined: 25.06.2010

Villains line is one of someone trying to leave themselves enough money on the river to bluff. By betting small on the flop and turn it looks like someone with a draw that will shove the river whatever happens.

However I think you need to be raising this flop. You were the preflop aggressor and flop a nut flush draw with an outside straight draw plus second pair.

MP donks out a half pot bet which looks heavily weighted towards being a blocking bet (why would you donk out with a set here vs a preflop aggressor on a draw heavy board??)

I think you should continue trying to rep AA here by raising full pot on the flop. If you end up all in versus a set, that's fine because you have a flush draw and a straight draw. However you can make a lot of hands fold here that have equity to call such as 2 pair, maybe even bottom set.

This is a great flop to jam where you will never have bad equity if you end up all in plus you can make your opponent fold a high percentage of the time.

As played: You really have no choice but to call the river. You have 2 blockers to the nuts which is KJ so you only really fear someone with J8 which is possible, they could have JT8x on this flop, however it does also look like a horrible bluff.

I play the river the same as you (by calling) but I also raise this flop which you didn't do.


Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Thatdonk bet is super strange, as hero 3bet preflop and there is an ace on the flop. I would jam it too, you have great hand with that straight draw plus flush draw. If opponent happens to have set, you have 45% equity (as it usually isn't set of aces).

I think that most of the time that is a draw, but still that bet just doesn't make any sense. If he has a monsterdraw like JT86 with hearts, you have 62% equity.